摘要
本文采用2003~2015年全国农村固定观察点的大样本数据,构建相关随机效应模型(Correlated Random Effect)尽可能降低传统随机前沿生产函数中一步法的内生性问题,实证分析氮元素施用对农户家庭层面"加总"粮食生产效率的影响。在清理数据的过程中,本文对全国农村固定观察点数据可能存在的面板数据衔接偏误问题进行纠正,进一步检验了计量分析结论的稳健性。研究结果表明,中国农户粮食生产过程中氮元素施用过量,对粮食生产效率具有显著的负向影响,且这一结论是稳健的。氮元素施用对粮食作物生产效率的负向影响存在着异质性,对不同经营规模农户的影响效果是显著的,但对不同区域农户的影响效果并不显著。基于实证研究结论,本文提出了适当降低氮元素施用量的政策建议,即为农户施肥提供技术指导,深入推进化肥减量化和有机肥替代行动,健全化肥相关管理条例与科学施用的指导办法。
引文
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(1)根据中国第三次全国农业普查综合资料计算,数字截止到2016年底。
(2)之所以选择将粮食作物产值进行加总,主要是考虑到不同作物品种的产量存在差异,倘若直接按照产量加总起来会存在偏误。虽然采用产值加总不是最优的选择方式,但仍是一种可行的办法。这一点在Hsieh和Klenow(2009)对制造业全要素生产率跨国测算中予以介绍。本文选择将粮食作物的产值进行加总。
(3)考虑是否加入劳动力雇佣比例是因为过去中国农业的发展是建立在低劳动力成本的基础上,随着劳动力成本的上升,农户生产行为方式也发生着转变,劳动力雇佣比例能够反映出农户粮食生产过程中劳动力的构成情况。
(4)综合机械化水平是按照机耕、机播和机收水平0.4、0.3、0.3的权重加权计算而得。其中,2015年小麦机耕、机播和机收水平分别为97.06%、87.54%和95.23%,玉米机耕、机播和机收水平分别为98.94%、42.26%和86.21%,水稻机耕、机播和机收水平分别为89.92%、86.62%和64.18%。