农业产业集聚与农业面源污染——基于空间异质性的视角
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摘要
本文基于1990—2016年我国30个省份的面板数据,采用空间自回归模型(SAR)和空间误差模型(SEM),分析了农业产业集聚对农业面源污染的影响机制。结果表明:我国农业面源污染存在明显的空间相关性性,且该空间相关性存在先削弱后增强的趋势。在全国层面,农业面源污染与农业产业集聚之间呈现出"N"形关系,即随着农业产业集聚度的提高,农业面源污染将呈现增长、降低、再增长的趋势;工业污染、产业结构对农业面源污染产生正向作用,而科技研发、城镇化则产生负向作用。区域层面,农业面源污染与农业产业集聚之间的关系在东北、东部、中部、西部分别表现为倒"N"形、倒"U"形、"N"形、倒"U"形,表明在特定阶段农业产业集聚可以促进面源污染减排;工业污染会加剧东部、中部的农业面源污染;科技创新会加剧中部、减轻东北、中部、西部的农业面源污染;城镇化会加剧东北、减轻东部和西部的农业面源污染;产业结构会加剧东部、减轻东北和中部的农业面源污染。
The theoretical mechanism of agricultural agglomeration affecting agricultural non-point source pollution is analyzed and three hypotheses are put forward.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China except Tibet from 1990 to 2016,the spatial auto-regressive model(SAR)and spatial error model(SEM)are used to carry out empirical tests.The results show that(1)There is a significant spatial correlation between agricultural non-point source pollution in China,and the spatial correlation decreases first and then increases.(2)At the national level,the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural agglomeration is "N".Industrial pollution and industrial structure have positive effects on agricultural non-point source pollution,while scientific research and development and urbanization have negative effects.(3)At the regional level,the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural agglomeration is "inverted N",inverted U"."N" "inverted U" in Northeast,East,Central and West respectively;industrial pollution will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution in East and Central China;scientific and technological innovation will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution in Centrall China,alleviate agricultural non-point source pollution in Northeast,Central and Western China;urbanization will aggravate the non-point source pollution in East China.In the north,the agricultural non-point source pollution in the East and West will be reduced,and the industrial structure will aggravate the agricultural non-point source pollution in the east,northeast and central regions.
The theoretical mechanism of agricultural agglomeration affecting agricultural non-point source pollution is analyzed and three hypotheses are put forward.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China except Tibet from 1990 to 2016,the spatial auto-regressive model(SAR)and spatial error model(SEM)are used to carry out empirical tests.The results show that(1)There is a significant spatial correlation between agricultural non-point source pollution in China,and the spatial correlation decreases first and then increases.(2)At the national level,the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural agglomeration is "N".Industrial pollution and industrial structure have positive effects on agricultural non-point source pollution,while scientific research and development and urbanization have negative effects.(3)At the regional level,the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural agglomeration is "inverted N",inverted U"."N" "inverted U" in Northeast,East,Central and West respectively;industrial pollution will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution in East and Central China;scientific and technological innovation will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution in Centrall China,alleviate agricultural non-point source pollution in Northeast,Central and Western China;urbanization will aggravate the non-point source pollution in East China.In the north,the agricultural non-point source pollution in the East and West will be reduced,and the industrial structure will aggravate the agricultural non-point source pollution in the east,northeast and central regions.
引文
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[8]孙大元,杨祁云,张景欣,等.广东省农业面源污染与农业经济发展的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(S1):102-105.
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[11]曹大宇,李谷成.我国农业环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于联立方程模型的估计[J].软科学,2011,25(7):76-80.
[12]刘志欣,邵景安,李阳兵.重庆市农业面源污染源的EKC实证分析[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,40(11):94-101.
[13]Krayl E,Leibfried R.,Werner R..Impact of Farmers'Risk Attitudes on Farm Income and Environmental Pollution by Nitrogen Fertilization.Agrarwirtschaft,1990(6):175-186.
[14]Plassmann F.,Khanna N..Household Income and Pollution:Implications for the Debate about the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis,Journal of Environment&Development,2006(1):22-41.
[15]袁平.农业污染及其综合防控的环境经济学研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2008.
[16]汪宁,叶常林,蔡书凯.农业政策和环境政策的相互影响及协调发展[J].软科学,2010,24(1):37-41.
[17]杜江,罗裙.农业经济增长与污染性要素投入——基于简约式及结构式模型的实证分析[J].经济评论,2013(3):56-65,117.
[18]夏秋,李丹,周宏.农户兼业对农业面源污染的影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(12):131-138.
[19]伍骏骞,阮建青,徐广彤.经济集聚、经济距离与农民增收:直接影响与空间溢出效应[J].经济学(季刊),2017,16(1):297-320.
[20]梁流涛,曲福田,冯淑怡.经济发展与农业面源污染:分解模型与实证研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(10):1369-1374.
[21]宋燕平,王艳荣.面向农业产业集聚发展的技术进步效应分析[J].科学学研究,2009,27(7):1005-1010.
[22]王学真,郭香峰,高峰.寿光蔬菜产业发展对相关产业的影响[J].农业经济问题,2007(3):91-95,112.
[23]肖卫东.农业空间布局研究的多维视角及引申[J].理论学刊,2015(8):49-57.
[24]杨礼琼,李伟娜,集聚外部性、环境技术效率与节能减排[J].软科学,2011,25(9):14-19.
[25]周新德.基于生命周期阶段的农业产业集群形成和演化机理分析[J].经济地理,2009,29(7):1134-1138.
[26]闫逢柱,苏李,乔娟.产业集聚发展与环境污染关系的考察——来自中国制造业的证据[J].科学学研究,2011,29(1):79-83,120.
[27]赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(9):118 4-1187.
[28]陈敏鹏,陈吉宁,赖斯芸.中国农业和农村污染的清单分析与空间特征识别[J].中国环境科学,2006(6):751-755.
[29]贾兴梅,李平.农业集聚度变动特征及其与农业经济增长的关系——我国12类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(1):209-217.
[30]Anselin L,F lor ax R J G M,Rey S J.Econometrics for Spatial Models:Recent Advances[M]//Advances in Spatial Econometrics.Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2004.
(1)国家统计局:第一次全国污染源普查公报.2010-02-11.http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/qttjgb/qgqttjgb/201002/t20100211_30641.html.
(2)韩长赋.大力推进农业绿色发展[J].农村工作通讯,2017(10):5-7.
(3)习近平.决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利[N].人民日报,2017-10-28(001).
[2]Grossman G M,Krueger A B.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,1991,8(2):223-250.
[3]贾滨洋,袁赛,闰楠.农业环境库兹涅茨曲线:文献综述与未来展望[J].黑龙江社会科学,2017(6):50-53.
[4]Antle J M,He i debrink G.Environment and Development:Theory and International Evidence[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,1995,43(3):603-625.
[5]赵连阁,徐建芬,王学渊.浙江省农业面源污染的库兹涅茨曲线验证[J].浙江农业学报,2012,24(6):1079-1085.
[6]吴其勉,林卿.农业面源污染与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于1995-2011年福建省数据分析[J].江西农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013,12(4):445-452.
[7]贾秀飞.河北农业面源污染与农业经济增长水平关系实证分析[J].陕西农业科学,2015,61(4):119-123.
[8]孙大元,杨祁云,张景欣,等.广东省农业面源污染与农业经济发展的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(S1):102-105.
[9]于骥,蒲实,周灵.四川省农业面源污染与农业增长的实证分析[J].农村经济,2016(9):56-60.
[10]李君,庄国泰.中国农业源主要污染物产生量与经济发展水平的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2011,27(6):19-25.
[11]曹大宇,李谷成.我国农业环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于联立方程模型的估计[J].软科学,2011,25(7):76-80.
[12]刘志欣,邵景安,李阳兵.重庆市农业面源污染源的EKC实证分析[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,40(11):94-101.
[13]Krayl E,Leibfried R.,Werner R..Impact of Farmers'Risk Attitudes on Farm Income and Environmental Pollution by Nitrogen Fertilization.Agrarwirtschaft,1990(6):175-186.
[14]Plassmann F.,Khanna N..Household Income and Pollution:Implications for the Debate about the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis,Journal of Environment&Development,2006(1):22-41.
[15]袁平.农业污染及其综合防控的环境经济学研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2008.
[16]汪宁,叶常林,蔡书凯.农业政策和环境政策的相互影响及协调发展[J].软科学,2010,24(1):37-41.
[17]杜江,罗裙.农业经济增长与污染性要素投入——基于简约式及结构式模型的实证分析[J].经济评论,2013(3):56-65,117.
[18]夏秋,李丹,周宏.农户兼业对农业面源污染的影响研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(12):131-138.
[19]伍骏骞,阮建青,徐广彤.经济集聚、经济距离与农民增收:直接影响与空间溢出效应[J].经济学(季刊),2017,16(1):297-320.
[20]梁流涛,曲福田,冯淑怡.经济发展与农业面源污染:分解模型与实证研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(10):1369-1374.
[21]宋燕平,王艳荣.面向农业产业集聚发展的技术进步效应分析[J].科学学研究,2009,27(7):1005-1010.
[22]王学真,郭香峰,高峰.寿光蔬菜产业发展对相关产业的影响[J].农业经济问题,2007(3):91-95,112.
[23]肖卫东.农业空间布局研究的多维视角及引申[J].理论学刊,2015(8):49-57.
[24]杨礼琼,李伟娜,集聚外部性、环境技术效率与节能减排[J].软科学,2011,25(9):14-19.
[25]周新德.基于生命周期阶段的农业产业集群形成和演化机理分析[J].经济地理,2009,29(7):1134-1138.
[26]闫逢柱,苏李,乔娟.产业集聚发展与环境污染关系的考察——来自中国制造业的证据[J].科学学研究,2011,29(1):79-83,120.
[27]赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(9):118 4-1187.
[28]陈敏鹏,陈吉宁,赖斯芸.中国农业和农村污染的清单分析与空间特征识别[J].中国环境科学,2006(6):751-755.
[29]贾兴梅,李平.农业集聚度变动特征及其与农业经济增长的关系——我国12类农作物空间布局变化的实证检验[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(1):209-217.
[30]Anselin L,F lor ax R J G M,Rey S J.Econometrics for Spatial Models:Recent Advances[M]//Advances in Spatial Econometrics.Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2004.
(1)国家统计局:第一次全国污染源普查公报.2010-02-11.http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/qttjgb/qgqttjgb/201002/t20100211_30641.html.
(2)韩长赋.大力推进农业绿色发展[J].农村工作通讯,2017(10):5-7.
(3)习近平.决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利[N].人民日报,2017-10-28(001).