京津冀城市群能源协同发展背景下能源生产结构变化探究
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摘要
能源作为城市生产与生活中不可替代的资源类型,在城市化发展过程具有至关重要的作用。工业革命时代的结束,信息时代的开始,标志着以化石燃料为主要原料的发展方式发生转变,能源生产结构随着化石燃料比重下降而优化。城市群成为当前城市化的主体形态,其发展战略对区域能源结构具有重要影响。以京津冀城市群为例,从地级市尺度核算了2001—2015年不同城市能源生产结构的特征及其变化,并分析了城市群能源协同发展战略对不同城市能源生产结构的影响。主要结论包括:(1)2001—2015年京津冀各城市能源生产结构整体上趋于优化,但能源生产化石燃料占主导地位的本质特点没有改变。例如,河北的邯郸和邢台市增加了一次电力生产,但原煤生产仍占比90%以上。(2)研究根据能源生产的主导类型,可将京津冀城市划分为两类,即原煤主导型与原油主导型城市。其中,原煤主导型城市能源生产结构的调整明显优于原油主导型城市,例如,北京、石家庄、张家口与承德等原煤主导型城市的煤炭生产比重显著下降,而天津与沧州市等原油主导型城市的原油生产无明显下降趋势。(3)京津冀能源协同发展战略的实施有助于推进能源生产结构的优化,但对不同城市的影响不同,其中,对北京和河北承德市能源生产结构优化最显著,2001—2015年原煤生产比例下降了近40%,与协同发展战略的"基本无煤矿"目标方向一致,而对邯郸市、邢台市影响不明显。京津冀城市群能源生产结构调整仍具有较大潜力,对于原煤生产比例最高的城市(邯郸和邢台市),需要加快城市的能源生产转型,增加清洁能源产出,改善能源生产单一的结构特点;对于原煤生产产量较高的城市(唐山市),需要根据资源禀赋情况逐步调整原煤产量,进一步集约地区煤矿,同时鼓励发展煤炭洗选业,提高煤炭清洁生产技术;对于具有"无煤矿化"目标的高煤产城市(承德市和张家口市),需加快淘汰落后产能,同时依托京津冀能源协同发展战略,充分利用自身自然风力优势和区位优势,大力发展新能源。
As an indispensable resource in urban producing and living activities, energy has played a major role in supporting the development of urbanization. With the end of the industrial revolution and the beginning of the information age, the mode of using fossil fuels as the main raw materials for development began to change, so the energy production structure was optimized with a decreasing proportion of fossil fuels.Urban agglomeration has become the main form on urbanization, and its development strategy has an important impact on regional energy structure adjustment. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration(Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) as an example, the characteristics of and changes in the energy production structures of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei at the municipal level from 2001 to 2015 were calculated, and the influences of synergistic development strategies on the energy production structures of cities were analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The overall energy production structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities was optimized from 2001 to 2015, but the characteristics of fossil fuels essentially did not changed. For example, primary power has been added in the energy production in Handan and Xingtai City of Hebei Province, but raw coal production still accounted for more than 90% in both cities.(2) According to the prevailing types of energy production, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities could be divided into two types, coal-dominated cities and oil-dominated cities. The adjustment of the energy production structure in coal-dominated cities was obviously more effective than the oil-dominated. For example, the proportion of coal production had dropped significantly in coal-dominated cities such as Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Zhangjiakou and Chengde, whereas the crude oil production in Tianjin and Cangzhou had no obvious downward trend.(3) The implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy coordinated-development strategy was proved to be effective for the optimization of the energy production structure, but the impact was different in different cities. Among them, the energy structure optimization was the most significant for Beijing and Chengde City of Hebei Province, whose proportion of raw coal production decreased by nearly 40% in 2001—2015, and it was consistent with the development goal of "basically no coal mine" of the coordinated development strategy. However, the impact on Handan and Xingtai was not obvious. The adjustment of the energy production structure still has great potential to improve in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. For the cities with the highest proportion of raw coal production(Handan and Xingtai), which are also traditional resource cities with backward energy production structure, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation to enhance the cleanliness and enrich the diversity of energy production. For cities with high production of raw coal(Tangshan City), it would be wise to adjust their raw coal production gradually according to their resource endowment situation, intensify the coal mines distribution, and encourage the coal washing industry and clean coal production technology. For high production cities with the goal of no coal mining(Chengde and Zhangjiakou), further efforts are needed in eliminating backward production capacity, employing their own wind resource advantages and location advantages, and extending new energy vigorously based on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy co-development strategy.
As an indispensable resource in urban producing and living activities, energy has played a major role in supporting the development of urbanization. With the end of the industrial revolution and the beginning of the information age, the mode of using fossil fuels as the main raw materials for development began to change, so the energy production structure was optimized with a decreasing proportion of fossil fuels.Urban agglomeration has become the main form on urbanization, and its development strategy has an important impact on regional energy structure adjustment. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration(Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) as an example, the characteristics of and changes in the energy production structures of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei at the municipal level from 2001 to 2015 were calculated, and the influences of synergistic development strategies on the energy production structures of cities were analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The overall energy production structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities was optimized from 2001 to 2015, but the characteristics of fossil fuels essentially did not changed. For example, primary power has been added in the energy production in Handan and Xingtai City of Hebei Province, but raw coal production still accounted for more than 90% in both cities.(2) According to the prevailing types of energy production, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities could be divided into two types, coal-dominated cities and oil-dominated cities. The adjustment of the energy production structure in coal-dominated cities was obviously more effective than the oil-dominated. For example, the proportion of coal production had dropped significantly in coal-dominated cities such as Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Zhangjiakou and Chengde, whereas the crude oil production in Tianjin and Cangzhou had no obvious downward trend.(3) The implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy coordinated-development strategy was proved to be effective for the optimization of the energy production structure, but the impact was different in different cities. Among them, the energy structure optimization was the most significant for Beijing and Chengde City of Hebei Province, whose proportion of raw coal production decreased by nearly 40% in 2001—2015, and it was consistent with the development goal of "basically no coal mine" of the coordinated development strategy. However, the impact on Handan and Xingtai was not obvious. The adjustment of the energy production structure still has great potential to improve in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. For the cities with the highest proportion of raw coal production(Handan and Xingtai), which are also traditional resource cities with backward energy production structure, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation to enhance the cleanliness and enrich the diversity of energy production. For cities with high production of raw coal(Tangshan City), it would be wise to adjust their raw coal production gradually according to their resource endowment situation, intensify the coal mines distribution, and encourage the coal washing industry and clean coal production technology. For high production cities with the goal of no coal mining(Chengde and Zhangjiakou), further efforts are needed in eliminating backward production capacity, employing their own wind resource advantages and location advantages, and extending new energy vigorously based on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei energy co-development strategy.
引文
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[15] 郝俊卿,曹明明,王雁林. 关中城市群产业集聚的空间演变及效应分析——以制造业为例.人文地理, 2013, 28(3): 96-100 129-129.
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[17] 乔鑫. 基于大数据的区域能源经济环境系统耦合模型研究及应用[D].北京: 华北电力大学(北京),2017.
[18] 许珊, 范德成, 王韶华,张伟. 基于“能源-经济-环境模型”的能源结构合理度分析. 经济经纬, 2012, (4): 131-135.
[19] 赵柳榕. 能源结构的调整及能源战略的研究[D]. 镇江: 江苏大学, 2008.
[20] 刘红梅,王克强. 国际性大都市能源战略经验借鉴.上海师范大学学报: 哲学社会科学版,2010,39(1): 52-58.
[21] 陈海龙. 新疆能源资源生产结构演进分析及展望. 鸡西大学学报, 2015, 15(4): 50-51 54-54.
[22] 张珺婷,黄菊文,朱昊辰,李光明. 上海市城镇化发展对城市能源结构的影响.上海节能,2017(1): 6-10.
[23] 何立华,杨盼,蒙雁琳,孔渊. 能源结构优化对低碳山东的贡献潜力.中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(6): 89-97.
[24] 范非. 低碳城市能源结构低碳化评价指标研究[D]. 杭州: 浙江工业大学, 2016.
[25] 刘博, 王伟. 我国资源型城市的可持续发展研究. 现代商贸工业, 2009, 21(3): 6-7.
[26] 朱守先,张雷. 北京市产业结构的节能潜力分析.资源科学,2007,29(6): 194-198.
[27] 高新宇,范伯元,李彬. 北京新能源产业发展思路及政策探析.中国能源,2009,31(9): 25-26 18-18.
[28] 黄方今,雷平. 低碳经济语境中资源型城市发展困境与产业转型路径——以张家口市下花园区为例.常州信息职业技术学院学报,2010,9(1): 75-78.
[29] 秦亚玲. 京津冀协同发展下张家口绿色产业发展研究[D].唐山: 华北理工大学, 2017.
[30] 郝东恒,王瑞科. 中等煤炭资源型城市的产业转型——以邢台市为例.资源与产业,2012,14(2): 3-7.
[31] 李昌明,赵殿玉,张明. 秦皇岛市新能源开发现状及发展对策研究.城市问题,2010,(4): 42-44 95-95.
[32] 李金颖,田俊丽,张春莲. 天津市能源结构分析.中国城市经济,2011,(21): 30-31.
[2] 姚丛笑. 我国能源生产结构优化研究[D].长春:长春理工大学, 2010.
[3] Jiang, Z J, Lin B Q, et al. China′s energy demand and its characteristics in the industrialization and urbanization process. Energy Policy, 2012,49: 608-615.
[4] 石莹,朱永彬,王铮.成本最优与减排约束下中国能源结构演化路径.管理科学学报,2015,18(10): 26-37.
[5] 王锋,冯根福.优化能源结构对实现中国碳强度目标的贡献潜力评估.中国工业经济,2011,(4): 127-137.
[6] Decarolis J, Daly H, Dodds P, Keppo I, Li F, McDowall W, Pye S, Strachan N, Trutnevyte E, Usher W, Winning M, Yeh S, Zeyringer M. Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling. Applied Energy, 2017, 194:184-198.
[7] Koroneos C, Zairis N, Charaklias P, Moussiopoulos N. Optimization of energy production system in the Dodecanese Islands. Renewable Energy, 2005, 30(2): 195-210.
[8] Calvillo C F, Sánchez-Miralles A, Villar J. Energy management and planning in smart cities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016, 55: 273-287.
[9] Sadownik B, Jaccard M. Sustainable energy and urban form in China: the relevance of community energy management. Energy Policy, 2001, 29(1): 55-65.
[10] Cumo F, Garcia D A, Calcagnini L,Cumo F, Rosa F, Sferra A S. Urban policies and sustainable energy management. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2012, 4(1): 29-34.
[11] Cooke M T. Greater Philadelphia and Tianjin Economic Development Area EcoPartnership on urban clean energy infrastructure. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 2015, 7(4): 041515.
[12] Anbumozhi V, Han P. Tracking Clean Energy Progress in ASEAN Member States and Analysis of Implementation Deficits[D]. Ranti Amelia: Working Papers, 2015.
[13] van Leeuwen R P, de Wit J B, Smit G J M. Review of urban energy transition in the Netherlands and the role of smart energy management. Energy Conversion and Management, 2017, 150: 941-948.
[14] 方创琳. 京津冀城市群协同发展的理论基础与规律性分析.地理科学进展,2017,36(1): 15-24.
[15] 郝俊卿,曹明明,王雁林. 关中城市群产业集聚的空间演变及效应分析——以制造业为例.人文地理, 2013, 28(3): 96-100 129-129.
[16] 王柳叶. 我国能源结构合理度测度研究[D].哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工程大学,2014.
[17] 乔鑫. 基于大数据的区域能源经济环境系统耦合模型研究及应用[D].北京: 华北电力大学(北京),2017.
[18] 许珊, 范德成, 王韶华,张伟. 基于“能源-经济-环境模型”的能源结构合理度分析. 经济经纬, 2012, (4): 131-135.
[19] 赵柳榕. 能源结构的调整及能源战略的研究[D]. 镇江: 江苏大学, 2008.
[20] 刘红梅,王克强. 国际性大都市能源战略经验借鉴.上海师范大学学报: 哲学社会科学版,2010,39(1): 52-58.
[21] 陈海龙. 新疆能源资源生产结构演进分析及展望. 鸡西大学学报, 2015, 15(4): 50-51 54-54.
[22] 张珺婷,黄菊文,朱昊辰,李光明. 上海市城镇化发展对城市能源结构的影响.上海节能,2017(1): 6-10.
[23] 何立华,杨盼,蒙雁琳,孔渊. 能源结构优化对低碳山东的贡献潜力.中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(6): 89-97.
[24] 范非. 低碳城市能源结构低碳化评价指标研究[D]. 杭州: 浙江工业大学, 2016.
[25] 刘博, 王伟. 我国资源型城市的可持续发展研究. 现代商贸工业, 2009, 21(3): 6-7.
[26] 朱守先,张雷. 北京市产业结构的节能潜力分析.资源科学,2007,29(6): 194-198.
[27] 高新宇,范伯元,李彬. 北京新能源产业发展思路及政策探析.中国能源,2009,31(9): 25-26 18-18.
[28] 黄方今,雷平. 低碳经济语境中资源型城市发展困境与产业转型路径——以张家口市下花园区为例.常州信息职业技术学院学报,2010,9(1): 75-78.
[29] 秦亚玲. 京津冀协同发展下张家口绿色产业发展研究[D].唐山: 华北理工大学, 2017.
[30] 郝东恒,王瑞科. 中等煤炭资源型城市的产业转型——以邢台市为例.资源与产业,2012,14(2): 3-7.
[31] 李昌明,赵殿玉,张明. 秦皇岛市新能源开发现状及发展对策研究.城市问题,2010,(4): 42-44 95-95.
[32] 李金颖,田俊丽,张春莲. 天津市能源结构分析.中国城市经济,2011,(21): 30-31.