2019年全球矿业展望
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摘要
2019年将是大国角逐、多种风险因素交织和动荡急剧的一年。世界经济发展面临贸易保护主义等诸多不确定因素的影响,增长前景暗淡。矿业公司投资谨慎,世界矿产勘查开发投资难以持续回升,理论、技术和方法有待突破。石油、天然气等大宗矿产供应格局发生变化,与之相关的地缘政治风险犹存。铁矿石、铜等与基础设施建设相关的矿产需求增长,价格将震荡上升。资源民族主义愈演愈烈,提高税费水平成为主要手段,全球矿业投资环境堪忧。
2019 will be a year with great power competition,multi-risk factors and abrupt turmoil.The development of the world economy will be affected by many uncertain factors such as trade protectionism,and the growth prospects are bleak.Mining companies are cautious in investing,and global mineral exploration and development investment is difficult to keep rising,and a breakthrough needed in the theory,technology and methods.The pattern of supply of large minerals such as oil and natural gas has changed,and the geopolitical risks still exist associated with it.The demand for minerals related to infrastructure construction such as iron ore and copper will increase,and prices will fluctuate.Resource nationalism has intensified,raising taxes and fees has become the main means,and the global mining investment environment is worrying.
2019 will be a year with great power competition,multi-risk factors and abrupt turmoil.The development of the world economy will be affected by many uncertain factors such as trade protectionism,and the growth prospects are bleak.Mining companies are cautious in investing,and global mineral exploration and development investment is difficult to keep rising,and a breakthrough needed in the theory,technology and methods.The pattern of supply of large minerals such as oil and natural gas has changed,and the geopolitical risks still exist associated with it.The demand for minerals related to infrastructure construction such as iron ore and copper will increase,and prices will fluctuate.Resource nationalism has intensified,raising taxes and fees has become the main means,and the global mining investment environment is worrying.
引文
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[2]新华社,中国金融信息网.GDP同比增幅[EB/OL].http:∥dc.xinhua08.com/8043.
[3]闫卫东,孙春强,徐曙光,等.2018年全球矿业展望[J].中国矿业,2018,27(1):9-14.YAN Weidong,SUN Chunqiang,XU Shuguang,et al.Global mining outlook in 2018[J].China Mining Magazine,2018,27(1):9-14.
[4]S&P Global Market Intelligence.Corporate Exploration Strategies 2018[EB/OL].https:∥platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#industry/corporateExplorationStrategies.
[5]Australia Bureau of Statistics.8412.0-Mineral and Petroleum Exploration,Australia,Sep 2017[EB/OL].[2017-12-04].http:∥www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8412.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument.
[6]BNAmericas.Monthly oil price.[EB/OL].https:∥subscriber.bnamericas.com/en/data/dataset/monthly-oil-price/.
[7]Infomine Inc.Commodity and Metal Prices.[EB/OL].http:∥www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/.
[8]Cochilco.World Copper Inventories[EB/OL].https:∥www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Estadisticas/Bases%20de%20Datos/Inventarios-Mundiales-de-Cobre-.aspx.
[9]BNAmericas.Brazil's monthly iron ore exports.[EB/OL].https:∥subscriber.bnamericas.com/en/data/dataset/brazil%C2%92s-monthly-iron-ore-exports.
[10]BNAmericas.Mining exports from Chile,Peru and Bolivia.[EB/OL].https:∥subscriber.bnamericas.com/en/data/dataset/chiles-mining-exports.
[11]S&P Global Market Intelligence.Transactions Overview.[EB/OL].https:∥platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#markets/capitalofferingsummary.
[12]自然资源部信息中心全球矿业形势分析组.走势分化显现资源管控加剧[N].中国自然资源报,2018-10-19(006).
[13]孙春强,赵仕玲,闫卫东,等.2017年全球矿业政策与管理形势回顾[J].矿产勘查,2018,9(6):1055-1057.SUN Chunqiang,ZHAO Shiling,YAN Weidong,et al.Review of global mining policies and management in 2017[J].Mineral Exploration,2018,9(6):1055-1057.