用水效率红线下钦州市水资源三次供需平衡分析
|
摘要
针对钦州市水资源开发利用现状及供需不平衡的问题,阐述了三次平衡分析原则及计算原理,采用基于用水效率约束下的水资源三次供需平衡方法,分析钦州市2020年、2030年3种保证率下区域供需平衡态势,并结合用水总量红线,提出未来钦州市社会经济可持续发展的水资源利用对策。三次平衡后的结果表明:2020年钦州市50%、75%、95%保证率下缺水0.04、2.60、8.29亿m3; 2030年建成调水工程后,50%、75%保证率下钦州市有余水3.10、0.33亿m3,P=95%下缺水5.93亿m3。要完全达到总量红线控制目标和实现水量的综合平衡,应进一步推进钦州市节水型城市建设力度。
Aiming at the present situation of water resources utilization and the imbalance between supply and demand in Qinzhou,the principle and calculation principle of the third balance theory analysis method are expounded. The three supply and demand balance methods based on water resources are used to analyze the three guarantees of Qinzhou City in 2020 and 2030. Adopting the three-times allocation method based on water use efficiency,this paper analyzes the regional water supply and demand situation of Qinzhou City at three guarantee rates in 2020 and 2030,and combining the water consumption red line,proposes the countermeasures for water resources utilization in the future social and economic development of Qinzhou. The results after three balances show that: in 2020,50%,75%,and 95% of the guarantee rate in Qinzhou City will be 0. 04,2. 60,and 829 million m3 of water shortage. After the water transfer project is completed in2030,the guarantee rate will be 50% and 75%. There are residual water 3.10,0.33 million m3,P= 95% water shortage 593 million m3. To fully achieve the overall red line control objectives and achieve a comprehensive balance of water volume,we should further promote the construction of water-saving cities in Qinzhou.
Aiming at the present situation of water resources utilization and the imbalance between supply and demand in Qinzhou,the principle and calculation principle of the third balance theory analysis method are expounded. The three supply and demand balance methods based on water resources are used to analyze the three guarantees of Qinzhou City in 2020 and 2030. Adopting the three-times allocation method based on water use efficiency,this paper analyzes the regional water supply and demand situation of Qinzhou City at three guarantee rates in 2020 and 2030,and combining the water consumption red line,proposes the countermeasures for water resources utilization in the future social and economic development of Qinzhou. The results after three balances show that: in 2020,50%,75%,and 95% of the guarantee rate in Qinzhou City will be 0. 04,2. 60,and 829 million m3 of water shortage. After the water transfer project is completed in2030,the guarantee rate will be 50% and 75%. There are residual water 3.10,0.33 million m3,P= 95% water shortage 593 million m3. To fully achieve the overall red line control objectives and achieve a comprehensive balance of water volume,we should further promote the construction of water-saving cities in Qinzhou.
引文
[1]刘丙军,陈晓宏,雷洪成,等.流域水资源供需系统演化特征识别[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):331-336.
[2]王雅竹,石炼.五家渠市水资源供需平衡及水资源承载力分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013,(6):16-20.
[3]任怡,王义民,畅建霞,等.陕西省水资源供求指数和综合干旱指数及其时空分布[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):137-151.
[4] Milano M,Ruell and D,Dezetter A,et al. Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2013,500(11):114-126.
[5] XIONG,Ying,Jingzhi,et al. Optimization research on supply and demand system for water resources in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(11):1 357-1 376.
[6]洪倩.三次平衡理论在区域水资源供需平衡分析中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2016,(6):51-53.
[7]彭少明,贺丽媛,崔长勇,等.鄂尔多斯市水资源供需分析与配置格局[J].人民黄河,2014,36(9):62-63.
[8]付意成,邢乃春,赵进勇,等.北方缺水城市水资源短缺问题解决策略研究——以廊坊市为例[J].中国农村水利水电,2017,(11):1-5.
[9]李文忠,胥书亭,潘国强,等.基于三次平衡的焦作市水资源优化配置研究[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(7):24-28.
[10]胡军,孙国荣,常景坤,等.鄂北地区当地水资源三次供需平衡分析[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(7):64-67.
[11]赵元,赵天力,徐海涛,等.新疆农六师辖区水资源需求分析与总量控制研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(1):29-31.
[12]陈立华,关昊鹏,吴丽军,等.钦州市水利工程可供水量分析与预测[J].节水灌溉,2018,(6):91-96.
[2]王雅竹,石炼.五家渠市水资源供需平衡及水资源承载力分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013,(6):16-20.
[3]任怡,王义民,畅建霞,等.陕西省水资源供求指数和综合干旱指数及其时空分布[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):137-151.
[4] Milano M,Ruell and D,Dezetter A,et al. Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2013,500(11):114-126.
[5] XIONG,Ying,Jingzhi,et al. Optimization research on supply and demand system for water resources in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(11):1 357-1 376.
[6]洪倩.三次平衡理论在区域水资源供需平衡分析中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2016,(6):51-53.
[7]彭少明,贺丽媛,崔长勇,等.鄂尔多斯市水资源供需分析与配置格局[J].人民黄河,2014,36(9):62-63.
[8]付意成,邢乃春,赵进勇,等.北方缺水城市水资源短缺问题解决策略研究——以廊坊市为例[J].中国农村水利水电,2017,(11):1-5.
[9]李文忠,胥书亭,潘国强,等.基于三次平衡的焦作市水资源优化配置研究[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(7):24-28.
[10]胡军,孙国荣,常景坤,等.鄂北地区当地水资源三次供需平衡分析[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(7):64-67.
[11]赵元,赵天力,徐海涛,等.新疆农六师辖区水资源需求分析与总量控制研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(1):29-31.
[12]陈立华,关昊鹏,吴丽军,等.钦州市水利工程可供水量分析与预测[J].节水灌溉,2018,(6):91-96.