中国土地利用碳排放空间特征演化研究
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摘要
探索土地利用碳排放的空间特征演化对制定区域化减排政策具有重要意义。利用重心模型和空间自相关模型,对我国2009—2016年土地利用碳排放的空间特征演变进行了研究。结果表明:①土地利用碳排放总量由2. 64×10~9t增长到3. 35×10~9t,地均排放量由1038. 42t/km~2增长到1189. 83t/km~2;强度在研究期内整体呈下降趋势,截至研究期末排放强度下降到0. 55t/万元。②排放总量和强度重心迁移方向一致,总量以西移为主且速度趋缓,强度以北移为主且速度趋强;地均排放量重心总体向西南迁移。③排放总量、地均排放量和强度均有较强的空间正相关关系,空间集聚显著。排放总量"热点"区稳定,"冷点"区由新疆和四川两地向川贵一带变动;地均排放量和强度的"热点"区与"冷点"区均相对稳定。因此,减排增效政策着力点应往西部偏移,积极引导西部地区发展低碳经济。
Exploring the spatial characteristics of land use carbon emissions was of great significance for the formulation of regionalized emission reduction policies. This paper used the gravity center model and the spatial autocorrelation model to analyze the spatial characteristics of the carbon emission of land use in China from 2009 to 2016. It showed that: ①The total land use carbon emissions increased from 2. 90 × 10~9 t to 3. 35 × 10~9 t during the study period. The emission per unit area rose from 1038. 42 t/km~2 to 1189. 83 t/km~2. The carbon emission intensity of land use showed a downward trend during the same time,and in 2016,the carbon emission intensity of land use dropped to 0. 55 t per 10000 yuan. ②The direction of movement of gravity center of the total amount and the intensity of land use carbon emissions were consistent in mian direction,but the difference was that the total amount's gravity center moved to the northwest,mainly westward,however,the intensity'gravity center moved to the northwest at a larger angle,mainly northward. On the other hand,the moving speed of the total was slowing down,but the moving speed of the intensity was accelerated. The center of gravity of the unit area was fluctuating,which migrated to the southwest in general. ③The total amount and intensity of land use carbon emissions in China had a strong spatial autocorrelation,both of spatial agglomeration was significant. The total"hot spot"area was stable,but its"cold spot"area changed from Xinjiang and Sichuan to Sichuan and Guizhou. The"hot spot"and"cold spot"areas of the emission per unit area and intensity both were relatively stable. The low-carbon economy should be actively developed in the western China. According to those conclusions,the efforts to reduce emissions and increase efficiency should be strengthened and actively guide the development of a low-carbon economy in the western region of China.
Exploring the spatial characteristics of land use carbon emissions was of great significance for the formulation of regionalized emission reduction policies. This paper used the gravity center model and the spatial autocorrelation model to analyze the spatial characteristics of the carbon emission of land use in China from 2009 to 2016. It showed that: ①The total land use carbon emissions increased from 2. 90 × 10~9 t to 3. 35 × 10~9 t during the study period. The emission per unit area rose from 1038. 42 t/km~2 to 1189. 83 t/km~2. The carbon emission intensity of land use showed a downward trend during the same time,and in 2016,the carbon emission intensity of land use dropped to 0. 55 t per 10000 yuan. ②The direction of movement of gravity center of the total amount and the intensity of land use carbon emissions were consistent in mian direction,but the difference was that the total amount's gravity center moved to the northwest,mainly westward,however,the intensity'gravity center moved to the northwest at a larger angle,mainly northward. On the other hand,the moving speed of the total was slowing down,but the moving speed of the intensity was accelerated. The center of gravity of the unit area was fluctuating,which migrated to the southwest in general. ③The total amount and intensity of land use carbon emissions in China had a strong spatial autocorrelation,both of spatial agglomeration was significant. The total"hot spot"area was stable,but its"cold spot"area changed from Xinjiang and Sichuan to Sichuan and Guizhou. The"hot spot"and"cold spot"areas of the emission per unit area and intensity both were relatively stable. The low-carbon economy should be actively developed in the western China. According to those conclusions,the efforts to reduce emissions and increase efficiency should be strengthened and actively guide the development of a low-carbon economy in the western region of China.
引文
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[11]张思齐．经济集聚背景下区域土地利用碳排放变化及影响因素研究[D]．武汉:华中农业大学硕士学位论文，2018.
[12]杨青林，赵荣钦，丁明磊，等．中国城市碳排放的空间格局及影响机制———基于285个地级市截面数据的分析[J]．资源开发与市场，2018,34(9)∶1243-1249.
[13]袁霄，倪九派，谢德体．重庆市县域空间土地利用碳排放的时空格局分析[J/OL].[2019-05-21]. http://kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/11. 3242. TB. 20181024. 1300. 002. html.
[14]乔健，吴青龙．中国碳排放强度重心演变及驱动因素分析[J]．经济问题，2017,(8)∶63-67.
[15]邓吉祥，刘晓，王铮．中国碳排放的区域差异及演变特征分析与因素分解[J]．自然资源学报，2014,29(2)∶189-200.
[16]刘佳骏，史丹，汪川．中国碳排放空间相关与空间溢出效应研究[J]．自然资源学报，2015,30(8)∶1289-1303.
[17]孙赫，梁红梅，常学礼，等．中国土地利用碳排放及其空间关联[J]．经济地理，2015,35(3)∶154-162.
[18]胡艳兴，潘竟虎，李真，等．中国省域能源消费碳排放时空异质性的EOF和GWR分析[J]．环境科学学报，2016,36(5)∶1866-1874.
[19]王亚政．基于ESDA-GWR的中国区域碳排放空间差异研究[D]．天津:天津大学硕士学位论文，2017.
[20]马海超，雷明，殷子涵．我国经济发展与碳排放增长的空间特征———基于GDP重心、第二产业重心和碳排放重心的动态轨迹分析[J]．技术经济与管理研究，2017,(9)∶112-118.
[21]齐亚伟．中国区域经济增长、碳排放的脱钩效应与重心转移轨迹分析[J]．现代财经(天津财经大学学报)，2018,38(5)∶17-29.
[2]周嘉，杨琳，董美娜，等．基于土地利用的哈尔滨市2004—2012年碳排放强度变化分析[J]．地理科学，2015,35(3)∶322-327.
[3]李颖，黄贤金，甄峰．江苏省区域不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应分析[J]．农业工程学报，2008,24(S2)∶102-107.
[4]张苗，陈银蓉，程道平，等．土地利用结构和强度变化对碳排放影响分析[J]．资源开发与市场，2018,34(5)∶624-628,675.
[5]樊高源，杨俊孝．土地利用结构、经济发展与土地碳排放影响效应研究———以乌鲁木齐市为例[J]．中国农业资源与区划，2017,38(10)∶177-184.
[6]赖利，黄贤金．中国土地利用碳排放的效应研究[M]．南京:南京大学出版社，2011.
[7]阿如旱，牡丹，苏德苏日古格，等．内蒙古多伦县土地利用碳排放及其影响因素分析[J]．干旱区资源与环境，2019,33(4)∶17-22.
[8]张勇，张乐勤，汪应宏，等．安徽省池州市土地利用碳排放演变及其影响因素[J]．中国农业大学学报，2014,19(2)∶216-223.
[9]张志强，曾静静，曲建升．世界主要国家碳排放强度历史变化趋势及相关关系研究[J]．地球科学进展，2011,26(8)∶859-869.
[10]曲鲁平，翟腾腾，张全景．基于灰色理论模型的山东省土地利用碳排放研究[J]．山东农业大学学报(自然科学版)，2019,(2)∶290-296.
[11]张思齐．经济集聚背景下区域土地利用碳排放变化及影响因素研究[D]．武汉:华中农业大学硕士学位论文，2018.
[12]杨青林，赵荣钦，丁明磊，等．中国城市碳排放的空间格局及影响机制———基于285个地级市截面数据的分析[J]．资源开发与市场，2018,34(9)∶1243-1249.
[13]袁霄，倪九派，谢德体．重庆市县域空间土地利用碳排放的时空格局分析[J/OL].[2019-05-21]. http://kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/11. 3242. TB. 20181024. 1300. 002. html.
[14]乔健，吴青龙．中国碳排放强度重心演变及驱动因素分析[J]．经济问题，2017,(8)∶63-67.
[15]邓吉祥，刘晓，王铮．中国碳排放的区域差异及演变特征分析与因素分解[J]．自然资源学报，2014,29(2)∶189-200.
[16]刘佳骏，史丹，汪川．中国碳排放空间相关与空间溢出效应研究[J]．自然资源学报，2015,30(8)∶1289-1303.
[17]孙赫，梁红梅，常学礼，等．中国土地利用碳排放及其空间关联[J]．经济地理，2015,35(3)∶154-162.
[18]胡艳兴，潘竟虎，李真，等．中国省域能源消费碳排放时空异质性的EOF和GWR分析[J]．环境科学学报，2016,36(5)∶1866-1874.
[19]王亚政．基于ESDA-GWR的中国区域碳排放空间差异研究[D]．天津:天津大学硕士学位论文，2017.
[20]马海超，雷明，殷子涵．我国经济发展与碳排放增长的空间特征———基于GDP重心、第二产业重心和碳排放重心的动态轨迹分析[J]．技术经济与管理研究，2017,(9)∶112-118.
[21]齐亚伟．中国区域经济增长、碳排放的脱钩效应与重心转移轨迹分析[J]．现代财经(天津财经大学学报)，2018,38(5)∶17-29.