资源衰退背景下长江中下游渔民退捕意愿分析
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摘要
在国家实行长江大保护战略,建立长江流域禁捕制度的背景下,论文利用江苏省、安徽省和江西省渔民调查数据,运用二项分布Logistic回归模型,实证分析了长江中下游渔民退出捕捞生产活动的意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:78%的调查渔民愿意退出捕捞;渔民年龄、生产船船龄对渔民退出长江渔业捕捞活动的意愿具有正向影响;家庭人口数、捕捞收入对渔民退出长江渔业捕捞活动的意愿具有负向影响;渔民受教育水平和燃油补贴对渔民退出长江渔业捕捞活动的意愿无显著影响。研究结果对推行长江流域禁捕补偿制度有一定的参考意义。
Under the background of implementation of the Yangtze River protection strategy and the establishment of prohibiting fishing in the Yangtze River Basin, this paper uses the Logistic Regression Model of Jiangsu Province, Anhui Province and Jiangxi Province to empirically analyze the fishermen's willingness to quit catching and its influencing factors in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that 78% of the surveyed fishermen are willing to quit fishing; the age of the fishermen and the age of the production vessels have a positive impact on the willingness of the fishermen to quit the Yangtze River fishing activities; the family population and fishing income have a negative impact on the willingness of the fishermen to quit the Yangtze River fishing activities; fishermen's education level and fuel subsidies have no significant impact on the fishermen's willingness to quit the Yangtze River fishing activities. The research results have certain reference significance for the implementation of compensation for prohibiting fishing in the Yangtze River Basin.
Under the background of implementation of the Yangtze River protection strategy and the establishment of prohibiting fishing in the Yangtze River Basin, this paper uses the Logistic Regression Model of Jiangsu Province, Anhui Province and Jiangxi Province to empirically analyze the fishermen's willingness to quit catching and its influencing factors in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that 78% of the surveyed fishermen are willing to quit fishing; the age of the fishermen and the age of the production vessels have a positive impact on the willingness of the fishermen to quit the Yangtze River fishing activities; the family population and fishing income have a negative impact on the willingness of the fishermen to quit the Yangtze River fishing activities; fishermen's education level and fuel subsidies have no significant impact on the fishermen's willingness to quit the Yangtze River fishing activities. The research results have certain reference significance for the implementation of compensation for prohibiting fishing in the Yangtze River Basin.
引文
[1]李思发.淡水鱼类种群生态学[M].北京:农业出版社,1990.
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[5]龚大鑫,金文杰,窦学诚,贠汉伯,关小康.牧户对退牧还草工程的行为响应及其影响因素研究--以高寒牧区玛曲县为例[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(4):1169-1175.
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[7]李强,蒲春玲,刘鹏,等.新疆地区牧户对退牧还草政策的认知程度及其影响因素调查分析[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(6):281-284,290.
[8]李军,沈政.封山禁牧背景下农户舍饲选择意愿及其影响因素分析--以陕西省榆林市农户为例[J].中国农村经济,2013,(9):78-86.
[9]陈昱,陈银蓉,马文博.基于Logistic模型的水库移民安置区居民土地流转意愿分析--四川、湖南、湖北移民安置区的调查[J].资源科学,2011,33(6):1178-1185.
[10]郭斌,甄静,谭敏.城市居民绿色农产品消费行为及其影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,(3):82-90.
[11]李昊,李世平,南灵.中国农户土地流转意愿影响因素--基于29篇文献的Meta分析[J].农业技术经济,2017,(7):78-93.
[12]徐美银.发达地区农民土地转出意愿影响因素分析--基于浙江省426户调研问卷的实证[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,14(6):97-105.
[13]户艳领,李丽红,任宁,等.基于二元Logistic模型的贫困山区农村土地流转意愿影响因素研究--源于河北省贫困山区县的调研样本[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(7):137-143,211.
[14]朱红根,江慧珍,康兰媛,等.基于农户受偿意愿的退耕还湿补偿标准实证分析--来自鄱阳湖区1009份调查问卷[J].财贸研究,2015,26(5):57-64.
[15]皮泓漪,张萌雪,夏建新.基于农户受偿意愿的退耕还林生态补偿研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2018,34(10):903-909.
[2]邱顺林,陈大庆.长江鲥鱼世代分析及资源量的初步评估[J].淡水渔业,1988,(6):3-5.
[3]长江水系渔业资源调查协作组.长江水系渔业资源[M].北京:海洋出版社,1990.
[4]周妮笛,李明贤.城市郊区农户土地流转意愿及其影响因素--基于长沙市8乡镇农户调查数据[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013,(6):20-26.
[5]龚大鑫,金文杰,窦学诚,贠汉伯,关小康.牧户对退牧还草工程的行为响应及其影响因素研究--以高寒牧区玛曲县为例[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(4):1169-1175.
[6]薄慧敏,马丁丑.气候变化背景下荒漠草原牧民退牧意愿及其影响因素分析--以张掖市平山湖乡为例[J].西北人口,2016,37(5):119-126.
[7]李强,蒲春玲,刘鹏,等.新疆地区牧户对退牧还草政策的认知程度及其影响因素调查分析[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(6):281-284,290.
[8]李军,沈政.封山禁牧背景下农户舍饲选择意愿及其影响因素分析--以陕西省榆林市农户为例[J].中国农村经济,2013,(9):78-86.
[9]陈昱,陈银蓉,马文博.基于Logistic模型的水库移民安置区居民土地流转意愿分析--四川、湖南、湖北移民安置区的调查[J].资源科学,2011,33(6):1178-1185.
[10]郭斌,甄静,谭敏.城市居民绿色农产品消费行为及其影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,(3):82-90.
[11]李昊,李世平,南灵.中国农户土地流转意愿影响因素--基于29篇文献的Meta分析[J].农业技术经济,2017,(7):78-93.
[12]徐美银.发达地区农民土地转出意愿影响因素分析--基于浙江省426户调研问卷的实证[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014,14(6):97-105.
[13]户艳领,李丽红,任宁,等.基于二元Logistic模型的贫困山区农村土地流转意愿影响因素研究--源于河北省贫困山区县的调研样本[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(7):137-143,211.
[14]朱红根,江慧珍,康兰媛,等.基于农户受偿意愿的退耕还湿补偿标准实证分析--来自鄱阳湖区1009份调查问卷[J].财贸研究,2015,26(5):57-64.
[15]皮泓漪,张萌雪,夏建新.基于农户受偿意愿的退耕还林生态补偿研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2018,34(10):903-909.