摘要
10~30天延伸期预报技术是世界性难题,但是延伸期时效预报在我国气象防灾减灾决策服务和重大活动气象保障服务中起着非常重要的作用。近10年来,我国在10~30天延伸期预报技术领域进行了有益的探索,并取得了一定的进展。在总结延伸期预报理论和预报技术的基础上,系统介绍我国延伸期预报业务技术的进展;并结合数值模式发展趋势和未来延伸期预报的需求,分析我国延伸期预报业务中存在的具体技术问题和挑战,最后提出未来延伸期预报业务的发展思路。
The 10~30 days extended-range forecasting technology is a worldwide problem,but it plays a very important role in meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making services and meteorological support services for major activities in China. In the past decade,China has carried out beneficial explorations in 10-30 days extended-range forecasting theory and technology and made some progress. Based on the introduction of the theory and technology of extended-range forecast,this paper systematically introduced the technical progress of China's extended-range forecasting service;combining with the development trend of numerical model and the demand of future extended-range forecast,here we analyzed the specific technical problems and challenges in China's extended-range forecast service,and finally proposed the development ideas of future extended-range forecast service.
引文
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