灾害性天气下航空公司天气成本测算模型
|
摘要
为减轻灾害性天气对航空公司的影响,进一步提高经济效益,构建一种天气条件下航空公司的运营成本测算模型。首先,将航空公司运营成本重新划分为常规成本和天气成本2大类;然后,分析正常天气成本与非正常航班状态成本,得到给定情景航班的天气成本,累加所有航班天气成本,得到整个航空公司的天气成本,并重点关注灾害性天气下航空公司可降低的天气成本;最后,开展国内某中型航空公司的简单仿真案例研究。结果表明:该模型能够比较合理地计算航空公司可降低的天气成本;航空公司天气成本与其计划航班起降机场的灾害性天气危险性密切相关。
In order to mitigate the impact of disastrous weather on airlines and improve their economic efficiency,this paper proposes a calculation model for airlines' weather-related costs. Firstly,the airlines' operating costs were reclassified into two categories: regular operating costs and weather-related costs.Then,weather-related costs for a flight under a given scenario was calculated by analyzing its cost in normal weather and abnormal flight status cost. The weather-related costs of one airline was obtained by summing up the costs of all flights,focusing on the reducible weather-related costs under disastrous weather conditions. Finally,a simulation case study of a medium-sized airline in China was carried out.The results show that the reduced weather-related costs of airlines can be calculated by the proposed model reasonably,and the weather-related costs are closely linked with the weather hazard degree of departure and arrival airports of planned flights.
In order to mitigate the impact of disastrous weather on airlines and improve their economic efficiency,this paper proposes a calculation model for airlines' weather-related costs. Firstly,the airlines' operating costs were reclassified into two categories: regular operating costs and weather-related costs.Then,weather-related costs for a flight under a given scenario was calculated by analyzing its cost in normal weather and abnormal flight status cost. The weather-related costs of one airline was obtained by summing up the costs of all flights,focusing on the reducible weather-related costs under disastrous weather conditions. Finally,a simulation case study of a medium-sized airline in China was carried out.The results show that the reduced weather-related costs of airlines can be calculated by the proposed model reasonably,and the weather-related costs are closely linked with the weather hazard degree of departure and arrival airports of planned flights.
引文
[1] MAZZOCCHI M,HANSSTEIN F,RAGONA M. The 2010 volcanic ash cloud and its financial impact on the European airline industry[C]. CESifo Forum. ifo Institute-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich,2010:92-100.
[2] GUO Xiaomei,HU Xiaobing,LI Hang,et al. A study on spatial-temporal rainstorm risk at civil airports in China[J].Journal of Risk Analysis&Crisis Response,2015,5(3):188-198.
[3]王兴隆,潘维煌,赵末.航空相依网络的鲁棒性与拥堵性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(2):110-115.WANG Xinglong,PAN Weihuang,ZHAO Mo. Analysis of both robustness and congestion of aeronautical interdependent network[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(2):110-115.
[4]李航,胡小兵.一种改进的民用航空网络空间脆弱性模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2018,18(4):202-208.LI Hang,HU Xiaobing. An improved spatial vulnerability model for civil aviation network[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2018,18(4):202-208.
[5] WEI Wei,SHAO Quan,XIANG Hongyi,et al. Research on impact of bad weather based on complex network on flight delay[J]. Aeronautical Computing Technique,2018,48(2):48-51.
[6] SRIDHAR B,SWEI S. Relationship between weather,traffic and delay based on empirical methods[C]. 6th AIAA Aviation Technology,Integration and Operations Conference(ATIO),2006:1-8.
[7] DEARMON J,BADEN W,BATEMAN H. An assessment of flight delay caused by enroute weather[C]. Digital Avionics Systems Conference. IEEE,2013:1C6-1-1C 6-9.
[8] TSAI W H,KUO Lopin. Operating costs and capacity in the airline industry[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004,10(4):269-275.
[9]中国民用航空局.国内机场收费标准[L]. 2007-12-28.
[10]赵文智,刘博.航班延误成本测算方法研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2011,9(1):5-9.ZHAO Wenzhi,LIU Bo. Evaluation method study for flight delay cost[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2011,9(1):5-9.
[11] GRAHAM T,BARCZI N,NEELS K,et al. The economic cost of airline flight delay[J]. Journal of Transport Economics&Policy,2013,47(1):107-121.
[2] GUO Xiaomei,HU Xiaobing,LI Hang,et al. A study on spatial-temporal rainstorm risk at civil airports in China[J].Journal of Risk Analysis&Crisis Response,2015,5(3):188-198.
[3]王兴隆,潘维煌,赵末.航空相依网络的鲁棒性与拥堵性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(2):110-115.WANG Xinglong,PAN Weihuang,ZHAO Mo. Analysis of both robustness and congestion of aeronautical interdependent network[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(2):110-115.
[4]李航,胡小兵.一种改进的民用航空网络空间脆弱性模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2018,18(4):202-208.LI Hang,HU Xiaobing. An improved spatial vulnerability model for civil aviation network[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2018,18(4):202-208.
[5] WEI Wei,SHAO Quan,XIANG Hongyi,et al. Research on impact of bad weather based on complex network on flight delay[J]. Aeronautical Computing Technique,2018,48(2):48-51.
[6] SRIDHAR B,SWEI S. Relationship between weather,traffic and delay based on empirical methods[C]. 6th AIAA Aviation Technology,Integration and Operations Conference(ATIO),2006:1-8.
[7] DEARMON J,BADEN W,BATEMAN H. An assessment of flight delay caused by enroute weather[C]. Digital Avionics Systems Conference. IEEE,2013:1C6-1-1C 6-9.
[8] TSAI W H,KUO Lopin. Operating costs and capacity in the airline industry[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004,10(4):269-275.
[9]中国民用航空局.国内机场收费标准[L]. 2007-12-28.
[10]赵文智,刘博.航班延误成本测算方法研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2011,9(1):5-9.ZHAO Wenzhi,LIU Bo. Evaluation method study for flight delay cost[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2011,9(1):5-9.
[11] GRAHAM T,BARCZI N,NEELS K,et al. The economic cost of airline flight delay[J]. Journal of Transport Economics&Policy,2013,47(1):107-121.