基于FAHP-Shapley值的水环境治理 PPP项目风险分担研究
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摘要
在公共部门和私营部门之间合理地协调风险分担是保证PPP项目顺利实施的重要因素之一。通过合作博弈理论构建各利益主体的风险分担模型,结合水环境治理的特点及风险分担原则分析PPP项目的风险分担影响因素,利用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)计算影响因素权重并对Shapley值的合作博弈模型进行修正,修正后的风险分担方案权衡了各参与方实际风险承担能力,更与实际相符。并以S市污水及水环境综合治理PPP项目为例,计算最优风险分担比例。
Reasonable coordination of risk allocation between the public and private sectors is one of the important factors to ensure the implementation of PPP projects.The risk allocation model of various stakeholders is constructed by the cooperative game theory,integrating with the characteristics of environmental governance and risk allocation principle to analyse the PPP project risk allocation impact factors,Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) is used to calculate the weight of influencing factors and modify the cooperative game model of Shapley value,the revised risk allocation scheme weighs the actual risk tolerance of each participant,is more consistent with the actual.Finally,taking the PPP project of sewage and water environment comprehensive governance in a city as an example,to obtain the optimal risk allocation ratio.
Reasonable coordination of risk allocation between the public and private sectors is one of the important factors to ensure the implementation of PPP projects.The risk allocation model of various stakeholders is constructed by the cooperative game theory,integrating with the characteristics of environmental governance and risk allocation principle to analyse the PPP project risk allocation impact factors,Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) is used to calculate the weight of influencing factors and modify the cooperative game model of Shapley value,the revised risk allocation scheme weighs the actual risk tolerance of each participant,is more consistent with the actual.Finally,taking the PPP project of sewage and water environment comprehensive governance in a city as an example,to obtain the optimal risk allocation ratio.
引文
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[14] 蒋涌.基于ANN方法的境外基础设施PPP项目风险分担研究[J].国际经贸探索,2016,32(12):64-78.
[15] 洪鑫斓,陈晴晴,谢新宇,等.基于PPP模式下地方债务问题的解决方案[J].上饶师范学院学报,2016(3):25-30.
[16] 徐泽水.模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(4):311-314.
[2] LI B,AKINTOYE A,EDWARDS P J.Critical success factors for PPP/PFI projects in the UK construction industry[J].Construction management and economics,2005,23(5):459-471.
[3] ROUMBOUTSOS A,ANAGNOSTOPOULOS K P.Public–private partnership projects in Greece:risk ranking and preferred risk allocation[J].Construction management and economics,2008,26(7):751-763.
[4] JIN X H,DOLOI H.Interpreting risk allocation mechanism in public-private partnership projects:an empirical study in a transaction cost economics perspective[J].Construction management and economics,2008,26(7):707-721.
[5] CHEUNG E,CHAN A P C.Risk factors of public-private partnership projects in China:comparison between the water,power,and transportation sectors[J].Journal of urban planning and development,2011,137(4):409-415.
[6] AMEYAW E E,CHAN A P C.Risk ranking and analysis in PPP water supply infrastructure projects:an international survey of industry experts[J].Facilities,2015,33(7/8):428-453.
[7] 柯永建,王守清,陈炳泉.基础设施PPP项目的风险分担[J].建筑经济,2008(4):31-35.
[8] 李丽红,朱百峰,刘亚臣,等.PPP模式整体框架下风险分担机制研究[J].建筑经济,2014(9):11-14.
[9] 潘华,周小凤.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的PPP项目风险评估——以水污染生态补偿项目为例[J].会计之友,2018(10):74-80.
[10] CHUNG D,HENSHER D A,ROSE J M.Toward the betterment of risk allocation:Investigating risk perceptions of Australian stakeholder groups to public-private-partnership tollroad projects[J].Research in transportation economics,2010,30(1):43-58.
[11] IYER K C,SAGHEER M.Hierarchical structuring of PPP risks using interpretative structural modeling[J].Journalof construction engineering and management,2009,136(2):151-159.
[12] 李妍.不完全信息动态博弈视角下的PPP项目风险分担研究[J].财政研究,2015(10):50-57.
[13] 胡振,刘华,金维兴.PPP项目范式选择与风险分配的关系研究[J].土木工程学报,2011,44(9):139-146.
[14] 蒋涌.基于ANN方法的境外基础设施PPP项目风险分担研究[J].国际经贸探索,2016,32(12):64-78.
[15] 洪鑫斓,陈晴晴,谢新宇,等.基于PPP模式下地方债务问题的解决方案[J].上饶师范学院学报,2016(3):25-30.
[16] 徐泽水.模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(4):311-314.