干、支流洪水作用下洪水组合样本的选择对防洪设计的影响
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摘要
不同的洪水组合样本反映的干、支流洪水变量相关性是不一样的,对防洪设计存在着一定的影响。以桂平航运枢纽水闸为例,运用Copula函数构建干流浔江年最大洪峰与支流郁江年最大洪峰、浔江年最大洪峰与相应时段郁江流量、郁江年最大洪峰与相应时段浔江流量3种洪水组合样本的联合分布,在此基础上随机模拟洪水组合经调洪计算推求防洪水位,对比这3种洪水组合样本对防洪设计的影响。研究表明:3种洪水组合样本联合分布拟合最佳的Copula函数均为Clayton Copula;浔江年最大洪峰与相应郁江洪峰流量组合样本得到的防洪水位更加合理,既不高估洪水风险也不会低估洪水风险,在经济性与安全性之间取得了较好地平衡,该组合样本推求的100a一遇防洪水位为43.54m,相比采用经验方法确定的原设计洪水位43.48m更安全。Copula-Monte Carlo法考虑了干、支流洪水间相关性以及洪水组合与调洪耦合的关系,设计结果更合理。
The correlation of variables of flood from trunk stream with those from a tributary varies with sample selection of synthetic floods,which has a certain impact on flood control design.In the case study of Guiping Shipping Hub,this paper applies Copula function to construct the joint distribution of three samples of synthetic floods,the annual flood peak of the trunk stream,Xunjiang,and that of the tributary,Yujiang,the annual flood peak of Xunjiang and the flow of Yujiang in the corresponding period,and the annual flood peak of Yujiang and the flow of Xunjiang in the corresponding period.Influences of three samples of synthetic floods on flood control design are evaluated by applying stochastic simulation of synthetic floods and derivation of flood control level through flood routing.The results show that the optimum Copula function fitted by the joint distribution of three samples of synthetic floods is Clayton Copula.The flood control level derived according to the synthetic flood of annual flood peak of Xunjiang and the flow of Yujiang in the corresponding period is more reasonable,neither overestimating nor underestimating flood risk,thus achieving a better balance between economy and safety.The derived flood control level for 100-year return period flood is 43.54 m,safer than the original design flood level determined by empirical method.By taking into account the correlation of flood from trunk stream with that from a tributary and the coupling relationship between synthetic flood and flood routing,the Copula-Monte Carlo method adopted in this paper is considered to be more applicable to the flood control design.
The correlation of variables of flood from trunk stream with those from a tributary varies with sample selection of synthetic floods,which has a certain impact on flood control design.In the case study of Guiping Shipping Hub,this paper applies Copula function to construct the joint distribution of three samples of synthetic floods,the annual flood peak of the trunk stream,Xunjiang,and that of the tributary,Yujiang,the annual flood peak of Xunjiang and the flow of Yujiang in the corresponding period,and the annual flood peak of Yujiang and the flow of Xunjiang in the corresponding period.Influences of three samples of synthetic floods on flood control design are evaluated by applying stochastic simulation of synthetic floods and derivation of flood control level through flood routing.The results show that the optimum Copula function fitted by the joint distribution of three samples of synthetic floods is Clayton Copula.The flood control level derived according to the synthetic flood of annual flood peak of Xunjiang and the flow of Yujiang in the corresponding period is more reasonable,neither overestimating nor underestimating flood risk,thus achieving a better balance between economy and safety.The derived flood control level for 100-year return period flood is 43.54 m,safer than the original design flood level determined by empirical method.By taking into account the correlation of flood from trunk stream with that from a tributary and the coupling relationship between synthetic flood and flood routing,the Copula-Monte Carlo method adopted in this paper is considered to be more applicable to the flood control design.
引文
[1]何来兴，梁英．李柳沆，等．南宁市横县东安水闸除险加固工程初步设计报告[R]．南宁：广西南宁市水利电力设计院，2012.(HE L X,LIANG Y.LI L Q,et al.Preliminary design report on the reinforcement project of Dong'an Sluice in Heng County,Nanning[R].Nanning:Nanning Water Conservancy and Electric Power Design Institute,2012(in Chinese））
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[3]张妞，廉铁辉，冯平，等．黄河宁夏段干支流洪水组成分析[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2016,27(2):158-163.(ZHANG N,LIAN T H,FENG P,et al.Flood composition analysis of the main and tributaries of the Ningxia section of the Yellow River[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(2):158-163(in Chinese））
[4]涂新军，杜奕良，陈晓宏，等．滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计[J]．水科学进展，2017,28(1):49-58.(TUX J,DU Y L,CHEN X H,et al.Simulation and design of joint distribution of rain surges in coastal cities[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(1):49-58.(in Chinese））
[5]武传号，黄国如，吴思远．基于Copula函数的广州市短历时暴雨与潮位组合风险分析[J]．水力发电学报，2014,33(2):33-40.(WU C H,HUANG G R,WU S Y.Arisk analysis of short-term rainstorm and tidal position in Guangzhou based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(2):33-40.(in Chinese））
[6]丁晶，邓育仁，侯玉，等．水库防洪安全设计时设计洪水过程线法适用性的探讨[J]．水科学进展，1992(1):45-52.(DING J,DENG Y R,HOU Y,et al.Discussion on the applicability of the design flood process line method in flood control safety design of reservoirs[J].Advances in Water Science,1992(1):45-52．
[7]周川，黄亚珏．设计洪水计算中年最大选样法与超定量选样法的比较[J]．水电能源科学，2014,32(1):45-47,175.(ZHOU C,HUANG Y J.Comparison of middle-aged maximum sampling method and over-quantitative sampling method in design flood calculation[J].Hydropower Energy Science,2014,32(1):45-47,175.(in Chinese））
[8]郭生练，刘章君，熊立华．设计洪水计算方法研究进展与评价[J]．水利学报，2016,47(3):302-314.(GUO S L,LIU Z J,XIONG L H.Research progress and evaluation of design flood calculation methods[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):302-314.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150913．
[9]李天元．基于Copula函数的设计洪水计算方法研究[D]．武汉：武汉大学，2014.(LI T Y.Research on design flood calculation method based on Copula function[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University,2014.(in Chinese））
[10]范嘉炜，黄锦林，袁明道，等．基于G-H Copula的水库防洪安全计算方法研究[J]．中国农村水利水电，2018(11):76-79,86.(FAN J W,HUANG J L,YUAN M D,et al.Study on calculation method of reservoir flood control safety based on G-H Copula[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2018(11):76-79,86.(in Chinese））
[11]李天元，郭生练，陈璐，等．基于Copula函数的水库防洪安全设计[J]．水力发电学报，2013,32(6):50-56.(LIT Y,GUO S L,CHEN L,et al.Safety design of reservoir flood control based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(6):50-56.(in Chinese））
[12]张超，胡志根，刘全．基于Copula-Monte Carlo方法的串联施工导流系统风险分析[J]．水力发电学报，2013,32(4):46-50,56.(ZHANG C,HU Z G,LIU Q.A risk analysis of series construction diversion system based on Copula-Monte Carlo method[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(4):46-50,56.(in Chinese））
[13]刘章君，郭生练，胡瑶，等．基于Copula-Monte Carlo法的水库下游洪水概率分布研究[J]．水力发电，2015,41(8):17-22.(LIU Z J,GUO S L,HU Y,et al.Study on probability distribution of floods downstream of reservoir based on Copula-Monte Carlo method[J].Water Power,2015,41(8):17-22.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2015.08.005．
[14]史黎翔，宋松柏．基于Copula函数的两变量洪水重现期与设计值计算研究[J]．水力发电学报，2015,34(10):27-34.(SHI L X,SONG S B.Study on the two-variable flood return period and design value calculation based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(10):27-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20151004．
[15]侯芸芸．基于Copula函数的多变量洪水频率研究[D]．杨凌：西北农林科技大学，2010.5.(HOU Y Y.Multivariable flood frequency study based on Copula function[D].Yangling:Northwest University of Agriculture and Forestry,May 2010.(in Chinese））
[16]SALVADORI G,MICHELE C D.Frequency analysis via copulas:Theoretical aspects and applications to hydro-logical events[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40(12):229-244.DOI:10.1029/2004WR003133．
[17]REQUENA A I,MEDIERO L,GARROTE L.A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design:accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2013,17(8):3023-3038.DOI:10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013．
[18]陈子燊，曹深西．洪峰流量与水位不同遭遇条件下的防洪设计[J]．中山大学学报（自然科学版），2018,57(4):92-98.(CHEN Z S,CAO S X.Flood control design under different conditions of peak discharge and water level[J].Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Natural Science Edition),2018,57(4):92-98.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2018.04.012．
[19]吴帅兵，李典庆，周创兵．联合分布函数蒙特卡罗模拟及结构可靠度分析[J]．工程力学，2012,29(9):68-74.(WU S B,LI D Q,ZHOU C B.Joint distribution function Monte Carlo simulation and structural reliability analysis[J].Engineering Mechanics,2012,29(9):68-74.(in Chinese））
[20]刘章君，郭生练，许新发，等．两变量洪水结构荷载重现期与联合设计值研究[J]．水利学报，2018,49(8):956-965.(LIU Z J,GUO S L,XU X F,et al.Study on the recurrence period and joint design value of two-variable flood structure load[J].Journal of Water Resources,2018,49(8):956-965.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180466．
[21]尹家波，郭生练，吴旭树，等．两变量设计洪水估计的不确定性及其对水库防洪安全的影响[J]．水利学报，2018,49(6):715-724.(YIN J B,GUO S L,WU X S,et al.Uncertainty of two-variable design flood estimation and its impact on reservoir flood control safety[J].Journal of Water Resources,2018,49(6):715-724.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180038．
[22]VOLPI E,FIORI A.Hydraulic structures subject to bivariate hydrological loads:Return period,design,and risk assessment[J].Water Resources Research,2014,50(2):885-897.DOI:10.1002/2013WR014214．
[23]ZHANG L,SINGH V P.Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the Copula method[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2006,11(2):150-164．
[24]WANG J,TSAI C T.Bivariate frequency analysis of floods using Copulas[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2006,42(6):1549-1564．
[25]徐永乐等．西江航运建设第一期工程广西段初步设计报告（第一册桂平航运梯级）[R]．南宁：广西壮族自治区交通勘测设计院，1983.(XU Y L,et al.Preliminary design report of Guangxi Section of Xijiang shipping construction phase I project(Volume 1Guiping Shipping Cascade)[R].Nanning:Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Traffic Survey and Design Institute,1983.(in Chinese））
[26]甘富万，黄永俊，熊健，等．基于Copula函数的桂平航运枢纽水闸设计洪水位[J]．广西大学学报（自然科学版），2016,41(1):284-290.(GAN F W,HUANG YJ,XIONG J,et al.Design flood level of Guiping navigation hub sluice based on Copula function[J].Journal of Guangxi University(Natural Science Edition),2016,41(1):284-290.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13624/j.cnki.issn.1001-7445.2016.0284.
[2]肖义．水库大坝防洪安全标准及风险研究[D]．武汉：武汉大学，2004.(XIAO Y.Study on flood control safety standards and risks of reservoir dams[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University,2004(in Chinese））
[3]张妞，廉铁辉，冯平，等．黄河宁夏段干支流洪水组成分析[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2016,27(2):158-163.(ZHANG N,LIAN T H,FENG P,et al.Flood composition analysis of the main and tributaries of the Ningxia section of the Yellow River[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(2):158-163(in Chinese））
[4]涂新军，杜奕良，陈晓宏，等．滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计[J]．水科学进展，2017,28(1):49-58.(TUX J,DU Y L,CHEN X H,et al.Simulation and design of joint distribution of rain surges in coastal cities[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(1):49-58.(in Chinese））
[5]武传号，黄国如，吴思远．基于Copula函数的广州市短历时暴雨与潮位组合风险分析[J]．水力发电学报，2014,33(2):33-40.(WU C H,HUANG G R,WU S Y.Arisk analysis of short-term rainstorm and tidal position in Guangzhou based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33(2):33-40.(in Chinese））
[6]丁晶，邓育仁，侯玉，等．水库防洪安全设计时设计洪水过程线法适用性的探讨[J]．水科学进展，1992(1):45-52.(DING J,DENG Y R,HOU Y,et al.Discussion on the applicability of the design flood process line method in flood control safety design of reservoirs[J].Advances in Water Science,1992(1):45-52．
[7]周川，黄亚珏．设计洪水计算中年最大选样法与超定量选样法的比较[J]．水电能源科学，2014,32(1):45-47,175.(ZHOU C,HUANG Y J.Comparison of middle-aged maximum sampling method and over-quantitative sampling method in design flood calculation[J].Hydropower Energy Science,2014,32(1):45-47,175.(in Chinese））
[8]郭生练，刘章君，熊立华．设计洪水计算方法研究进展与评价[J]．水利学报，2016,47(3):302-314.(GUO S L,LIU Z J,XIONG L H.Research progress and evaluation of design flood calculation methods[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):302-314.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150913．
[9]李天元．基于Copula函数的设计洪水计算方法研究[D]．武汉：武汉大学，2014.(LI T Y.Research on design flood calculation method based on Copula function[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University,2014.(in Chinese））
[10]范嘉炜，黄锦林，袁明道，等．基于G-H Copula的水库防洪安全计算方法研究[J]．中国农村水利水电，2018(11):76-79,86.(FAN J W,HUANG J L,YUAN M D,et al.Study on calculation method of reservoir flood control safety based on G-H Copula[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2018(11):76-79,86.(in Chinese））
[11]李天元，郭生练，陈璐，等．基于Copula函数的水库防洪安全设计[J]．水力发电学报，2013,32(6):50-56.(LIT Y,GUO S L,CHEN L,et al.Safety design of reservoir flood control based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(6):50-56.(in Chinese））
[12]张超，胡志根，刘全．基于Copula-Monte Carlo方法的串联施工导流系统风险分析[J]．水力发电学报，2013,32(4):46-50,56.(ZHANG C,HU Z G,LIU Q.A risk analysis of series construction diversion system based on Copula-Monte Carlo method[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32(4):46-50,56.(in Chinese））
[13]刘章君，郭生练，胡瑶，等．基于Copula-Monte Carlo法的水库下游洪水概率分布研究[J]．水力发电，2015,41(8):17-22.(LIU Z J,GUO S L,HU Y,et al.Study on probability distribution of floods downstream of reservoir based on Copula-Monte Carlo method[J].Water Power,2015,41(8):17-22.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2015.08.005．
[14]史黎翔，宋松柏．基于Copula函数的两变量洪水重现期与设计值计算研究[J]．水力发电学报，2015,34(10):27-34.(SHI L X,SONG S B.Study on the two-variable flood return period and design value calculation based on Copula function[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(10):27-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20151004．
[15]侯芸芸．基于Copula函数的多变量洪水频率研究[D]．杨凌：西北农林科技大学，2010.5.(HOU Y Y.Multivariable flood frequency study based on Copula function[D].Yangling:Northwest University of Agriculture and Forestry,May 2010.(in Chinese））
[16]SALVADORI G,MICHELE C D.Frequency analysis via copulas:Theoretical aspects and applications to hydro-logical events[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40(12):229-244.DOI:10.1029/2004WR003133．
[17]REQUENA A I,MEDIERO L,GARROTE L.A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design:accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2013,17(8):3023-3038.DOI:10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013．
[18]陈子燊，曹深西．洪峰流量与水位不同遭遇条件下的防洪设计[J]．中山大学学报（自然科学版），2018,57(4):92-98.(CHEN Z S,CAO S X.Flood control design under different conditions of peak discharge and water level[J].Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Natural Science Edition),2018,57(4):92-98.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.2018.04.012．
[19]吴帅兵，李典庆，周创兵．联合分布函数蒙特卡罗模拟及结构可靠度分析[J]．工程力学，2012,29(9):68-74.(WU S B,LI D Q,ZHOU C B.Joint distribution function Monte Carlo simulation and structural reliability analysis[J].Engineering Mechanics,2012,29(9):68-74.(in Chinese））
[20]刘章君，郭生练，许新发，等．两变量洪水结构荷载重现期与联合设计值研究[J]．水利学报，2018,49(8):956-965.(LIU Z J,GUO S L,XU X F,et al.Study on the recurrence period and joint design value of two-variable flood structure load[J].Journal of Water Resources,2018,49(8):956-965.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180466．
[21]尹家波，郭生练，吴旭树，等．两变量设计洪水估计的不确定性及其对水库防洪安全的影响[J]．水利学报，2018,49(6):715-724.(YIN J B,GUO S L,WU X S,et al.Uncertainty of two-variable design flood estimation and its impact on reservoir flood control safety[J].Journal of Water Resources,2018,49(6):715-724.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180038．
[22]VOLPI E,FIORI A.Hydraulic structures subject to bivariate hydrological loads:Return period,design,and risk assessment[J].Water Resources Research,2014,50(2):885-897.DOI:10.1002/2013WR014214．
[23]ZHANG L,SINGH V P.Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the Copula method[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2006,11(2):150-164．
[24]WANG J,TSAI C T.Bivariate frequency analysis of floods using Copulas[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2006,42(6):1549-1564．
[25]徐永乐等．西江航运建设第一期工程广西段初步设计报告（第一册桂平航运梯级）[R]．南宁：广西壮族自治区交通勘测设计院，1983.(XU Y L,et al.Preliminary design report of Guangxi Section of Xijiang shipping construction phase I project(Volume 1Guiping Shipping Cascade)[R].Nanning:Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Traffic Survey and Design Institute,1983.(in Chinese））
[26]甘富万，黄永俊，熊健，等．基于Copula函数的桂平航运枢纽水闸设计洪水位[J]．广西大学学报（自然科学版），2016,41(1):284-290.(GAN F W,HUANG YJ,XIONG J,et al.Design flood level of Guiping navigation hub sluice based on Copula function[J].Journal of Guangxi University(Natural Science Edition),2016,41(1):284-290.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13624/j.cnki.issn.1001-7445.2016.0284.