2003年6、7月西昌二次4.8级地震的预测与分析
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摘要
2003年6月17日和7月10日,先后在四川省西昌市和西昌—昭觉间发生2次ML4 8级强有感地震。对于这2次地震,我们曾作了较好的中期和短期预测。但是对于6月17日发生的第一次ML4 8级地震,未能做出临震预测;对于第二次地震,则在7月1日向上级填报的周会商表中作了明确的临震预测,7月10日,在西昌—昭觉间发生了ML4 8级地震。根据西昌地震遥测台网各子台的P波初动求解震源机制,结合地震所处的地质构造以及现场烈度考察圈定出的结果分析,认为这二次地震是由安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂、凉山断裂所围成的凉山小菱形块体活动的结果。
Two earthquakes with M_L4.8 occurred on 17 June and 10 July 2003 separately in Xichang.Before these earthquakes,the intermediate-and short-term earthquake predictions were made but the imminent earthquake prediction for the first event was not made.According to the focal mechanism solution with P waves first movement and the seismological and geological structures (along) Anninghe,Zemuhe and Liangshan faults,we think that the two earthquakes result from the activities of these faults.
Two earthquakes with M_L4.8 occurred on 17 June and 10 July 2003 separately in Xichang.Before these earthquakes,the intermediate-and short-term earthquake predictions were made but the imminent earthquake prediction for the first event was not made.According to the focal mechanism solution with P waves first movement and the seismological and geological structures (along) Anninghe,Zemuhe and Liangshan faults,we think that the two earthquakes result from the activities of these faults.
引文
[1] 闻学泽 川西地震强化监视区的基本情况与工作设想[J].四川地震,2003,(2):1-6
[2] 程万正 安宁河—则木河—小江带强震趋势的预测依据和应用问题[J].四川地震,2003,(2):12-16
[3] 廖志和 安宁河、则木河带及邻区近年地震活动分析与预测探讨[J].四川地震,2003,(2):32-36
[4] 牟雅元 石棉—西昌重点监视区地震活动追踪[J] 震情研究,2000,(1):81-95
[2] 程万正 安宁河—则木河—小江带强震趋势的预测依据和应用问题[J].四川地震,2003,(2):12-16
[3] 廖志和 安宁河、则木河带及邻区近年地震活动分析与预测探讨[J].四川地震,2003,(2):32-36
[4] 牟雅元 石棉—西昌重点监视区地震活动追踪[J] 震情研究,2000,(1):81-95