地震灾害损失经济统计学评估方法初步研究
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摘要
准确评估地震的直接经济损失是一个比较困难的问题。主要介绍了用以有形资产为基础统计指标的经济统计学方法来评估地震灾害直接经济损失,包括两种评估模型,即灾区法人单位比重法和综合震害系数法。这些方法在汶川地震损失评估中得到了验证,是目前比较科学合理的经济学方法,提高了灾害损失评估的时效性和准确性。
The precise evaluation of the direct economic loss from earthquakes is a rather difficult issue.This article introduces an economic statistical approach with tangible assets as a basic statistical indicator to evaluate the direct economic loss from an earthquake disaster.This approach involves two evaluation models,namely,disaster area legal entity rating method and the overall earthquake disaster evaluation method.These methods have been validated in the loss evaluation of Wenchuan earthquake,and are relatively rational and scientific economic methods under current conditions in the improvement of the correctness and currency of disaster loss evaluation.
The precise evaluation of the direct economic loss from earthquakes is a rather difficult issue.This article introduces an economic statistical approach with tangible assets as a basic statistical indicator to evaluate the direct economic loss from an earthquake disaster.This approach involves two evaluation models,namely,disaster area legal entity rating method and the overall earthquake disaster evaluation method.These methods have been validated in the loss evaluation of Wenchuan earthquake,and are relatively rational and scientific economic methods under current conditions in the improvement of the correctness and currency of disaster loss evaluation.
引文
[1]中国地震局.地震现场工作第四部分:灾害直接损失评估(GB/T 18208.4-2005)[S].北京:中国标准出版社.
[2]《国民经济行业分类》(GB/T4754?2002),http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjbz/t20030528_402369827.htm(中华人民共和国国家统计局网站)
[3]四川省统计局,国家统计局四川调查总队.四川统计年鉴(2007)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[4]四川省政府经济普查领导小组办公室和省统计局.2004四川经济普查年鉴[M].北京:年鉴社,2007.
[5]中国地震局.汶川8.0级地震烈度分布图[DB/OL].http://www.cea.gov.cn/manage/htm l/8 a8587881632 fa5 c0116674 a018300 cf/_content/08_09/01/1220238314350.htm l
[2]《国民经济行业分类》(GB/T4754?2002),http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjbz/t20030528_402369827.htm(中华人民共和国国家统计局网站)
[3]四川省统计局,国家统计局四川调查总队.四川统计年鉴(2007)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[4]四川省政府经济普查领导小组办公室和省统计局.2004四川经济普查年鉴[M].北京:年鉴社,2007.
[5]中国地震局.汶川8.0级地震烈度分布图[DB/OL].http://www.cea.gov.cn/manage/htm l/8 a8587881632 fa5 c0116674 a018300 cf/_content/08_09/01/1220238314350.htm l