安徽省城镇化发展对粮食生产的影响因素分析
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摘要
基于1978-2012年安徽省的粮食产量、城镇化率等时间序列数据,采取构建VAR模型的计量方法,实证分析安徽省粮食生产的影响因素。结果表明,从短期来看,城镇化率对粮食产量产生抑制作用,主要是由于当前安徽省城镇化质量不高,依赖于人口城镇化和土地城镇化,粮食产量主要依赖于有效播种面积、化肥投入和劳动力来提高;从长期来看,当城镇化发展到一定程度后,城镇化带来的成果反哺农业,弥补城镇化带来的不利因素,粮食生产投入特别是基础设施建设还需要依靠国家财政,农民投资农业的可能性很小。在此基础上,提出了严格保护耕地、建立基本良田永久保护区、加快城镇化发展等相关政策建议。
Based on time series data of the grain production and urbanization rate in Anhui province in 1978-2012, VAR model was constructed to analyze the influence factors of grain production in Anhui province. The results showed that in the short term, the urbanization rate had an inhibitory effect on grain production. It was mainly due to the quality of the current urbanization in Anhui province, dependent on the population urbanization and land urbanization. The grain production mainly depends on the effective, fertilizer input, and labor. In the long run, when the urbanization developed to a certain extent,the results of urbanization will be back-feeding agriculture, to make up the negative factors of urbanization. Grain production inputs especially infrastructure construction also needs national finance, with little possibility of farmer's investment in agriculture. Based on these, to strictly protect arable land, to set up the basic permanently protected land areas, and to accelerate the development of urbanization and related policy were put forward.
Based on time series data of the grain production and urbanization rate in Anhui province in 1978-2012, VAR model was constructed to analyze the influence factors of grain production in Anhui province. The results showed that in the short term, the urbanization rate had an inhibitory effect on grain production. It was mainly due to the quality of the current urbanization in Anhui province, dependent on the population urbanization and land urbanization. The grain production mainly depends on the effective, fertilizer input, and labor. In the long run, when the urbanization developed to a certain extent,the results of urbanization will be back-feeding agriculture, to make up the negative factors of urbanization. Grain production inputs especially infrastructure construction also needs national finance, with little possibility of farmer's investment in agriculture. Based on these, to strictly protect arable land, to set up the basic permanently protected land areas, and to accelerate the development of urbanization and related policy were put forward.
引文
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[2]何格,欧名豪.城市化与四川粮食安全问题研究[J].农业现代化研究,2005(5):349-352.
[3]何蒲明,王雅鹏,黎东升.湖北省耕地减少对国家粮食安全影响的实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2008(10):52-57.63.
[4]李彬,武恒.安徽省耕地资源数量变化及其对粮食安全的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009(12):1115-1120.
[5]肖双喜,徐玲.安徽省农户粮食生产潜力——基于909名农户的调研数据[J].技术经济,2012(4):109-113.
[6]李卫东,朱苏加,杜丽娟.河北省城镇化进程中粮食安全问题与对策[J].河北农业大学学报(农林教育版),2013(3):108-111.122.
[7]杨志海,王雅鹏.城镇化影响了粮食安全吗?——来自1 462个县(市)面板数据的实证检验[J].城市发展研究,2012,19(10):1-5.
[8]孙自保,宋连久,李萍.基于VAR模型的西藏粮食增长趋势分析[J].软科学,2010(6):80-84.
[9]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[10]聂雷,何如海,徐晨.安徽省农业产业结构调整对农民收入的影响分析[J].广东农业科学,2012(16):224-227.
[11]李嫣怡,刘荣,丁维岱,等.EViews统计分析与应用[M].修订版.北京:电子工业出版社,2012.
[12]彭澧丽,杨重玉,龙方.农业机械化对粮食生产能力影响的实证分析——以湖南省为例[J].技术经济,2011(1):34-38.
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