近26年合肥市气温降水变化特征及突变分析
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摘要
利用合肥市的气温和降水资料,运用气候趋势系数、一元回归分析法和5年趋势滑动,进行了气候变化的趋势分析,结果表明:合肥市气温变化趋势与全球气温变暖变化趋势基本一致;四季气温均呈上升趋势,春季增温幅度最大;冬季降水量呈增加趋势,春、夏、秋季呈下降趋势,春季降水量下降趋势最明显。在此基础上,利用气候要素累积距平曲线和检验信噪比(S/N)进行气候突变分析,结果表明:气温突变比降水突变明显,气温在1993年发生突变,降水量在1991年发生突变,在2001年发生转折但未检验出突变。
Utilizing the temperature and precipitation data of Hefei city,climate trend coefficient,simple regression analysis and 5-year sliding trend,the trend of climate change was analyzed.The results showed that temperature change trend of Hefei was basically the same as the global warming trend;seasonal temperature showed upward trend,the biggest temperature heat was spring;the winter precipitation was increasing, spring,summer and autumn were declining,the most obvious downward trend in precipitation appeared in spring.On this basis,using climate elements cumulative test curves and test signal of noise ratio(S/N) to analyze climate mutation.The result showed that the temperature mutation was more obvious than the precipitation mutation,the temperature mutation appeared in 1993 and precipitation mutation appeared in 1991. Turning point occurred in 2001 but did not test the mutation.
Utilizing the temperature and precipitation data of Hefei city,climate trend coefficient,simple regression analysis and 5-year sliding trend,the trend of climate change was analyzed.The results showed that temperature change trend of Hefei was basically the same as the global warming trend;seasonal temperature showed upward trend,the biggest temperature heat was spring;the winter precipitation was increasing, spring,summer and autumn were declining,the most obvious downward trend in precipitation appeared in spring.On this basis,using climate elements cumulative test curves and test signal of noise ratio(S/N) to analyze climate mutation.The result showed that the temperature mutation was more obvious than the precipitation mutation,the temperature mutation appeared in 1993 and precipitation mutation appeared in 1991. Turning point occurred in 2001 but did not test the mutation.
引文
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[2]杨建平,丁永建,陈仁升,等.近40a中国北方降水量与蒸发量变化[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(2):6-11.
[3]安月改,李元华.河北省近50年蒸发量气候变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(4):159-162.
[4]张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002:2-7.
[5]The Report of IPCC Climate Change 2007.The physical basis climate[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[6]王绍武,龚道溢,陈振华,等.近百年来中国的严重气象灾害[J].应用气象学报,1999(S1):43-53.
[7]左洪超,吕世华,胡隐樵.中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):238-224.
[8]黄嘉佑.气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1996,21(5):56-57.
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