雷达资料同化在安徽暴雨个例中的应用
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摘要
为了研究雷达资料同化对安徽暴雨预报的作用,使用WRFV3.4模式对2012年7月12日—14日安徽的一次暴雨个例,选取Eta微物理方案和GD积云参数化方案组合,利用WRFVAR3.4三维变分同化系统进行了直接循环同化雷达径向风资料。将同化试验和控制试验模拟的降水与实况比较,结果表明,同化了雷达径向风后在一定时间范围内能明显地提高降水预报,同化雷达资料后的前12 h内降水的同化试验较控制试验有一定的改进,特别是前6 h,可以看到,在小雨、中雨及暴雨量级上,都较控制试验有明显改进,在加入雷达径向风资料同化后,降水区的风场辐合特征更为明显,风速也有一定增强,降水强度和中心更接近实际值。在同化雷达资料后的后12 h,可以发现同化试验的优势逐渐不明显。
In order to study the radar data assimilation effect on Anhui rainstorm forecast, the author usedWRFV3.4 mode to simulate a heavy rainfall from July 12 to July 14, 2012 in Anhui Province, selected thecombination of Eta microphysical scheme and GD cumulus parameterization scheme, and used the three-dimensional variational assimilation system of WRFVAR3.4 to carry out the direct assimilation test with radarradial velocity data. Comparing precipitation of assimilation experiment and control experiment with actualrainfall, it was found that assimilation radar radial velocity could significantly improve the precipitationforecast in a certain period. Especially in the earlier 6 h, assimilation experiment had significant improvementthan control experiment in three grades which were light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain, and after joiningDoppler radar data assimilation, wind field convergence characteristics in rainfall area was more apparent,wind speed also had certain enhancement, rainfall intensity and center were closer to actual values. During 12 h after assimilation radar radial velocity data, it was found that the advantage of assimilation test was notobvious gradually.
In order to study the radar data assimilation effect on Anhui rainstorm forecast, the author usedWRFV3.4 mode to simulate a heavy rainfall from July 12 to July 14, 2012 in Anhui Province, selected thecombination of Eta microphysical scheme and GD cumulus parameterization scheme, and used the three-dimensional variational assimilation system of WRFVAR3.4 to carry out the direct assimilation test with radarradial velocity data. Comparing precipitation of assimilation experiment and control experiment with actualrainfall, it was found that assimilation radar radial velocity could significantly improve the precipitationforecast in a certain period. Especially in the earlier 6 h, assimilation experiment had significant improvementthan control experiment in three grades which were light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain, and after joiningDoppler radar data assimilation, wind field convergence characteristics in rainfall area was more apparent,wind speed also had certain enhancement, rainfall intensity and center were closer to actual values. During 12 h after assimilation radar radial velocity data, it was found that the advantage of assimilation test was notobvious gradually.
引文
[1]赖安伟,闵锦忠,任永建,等.径向风和反射率直接同化对一次梅雨锋暴雨模拟的影响[J].暴雨灾害,2011,30(3):218-226.
[2]朱立娟,龚建东,李泽椿.资料同化中雷达VAD风质量控制研究[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1731-1738.
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[5]王叶红,赖安伟,赵玉春.地基微波辐射计资料同化对一次特大暴雨过程影响的数值试验研究[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(3):201-207.
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[9]施丽娟.雷达资料三维变分同化在登陆台风模拟中的应用[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2008:1-32.
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[11]杨银,朱克云,张杰,等.应用多普勒天气雷达资料对四川“7·3”暴雨的变分同化试验.成都信息工程学院学报,2013,28(1):17-23.
[12]李国静,徐幼平,成巍,等.一次大暴雨过程的多普勒雷达资料同化的敏感性试验[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):97-103.
[13]陶士伟,仲跻芹,徐枝芳,等.地面自动站资料质量控制方案及应用[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1202-1209.
[14]刘青松,董海萍,郭卫东,等.多普勒雷达资料的直接同化对降雨预报的影响[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(2):122-128.
[15]丁伟钰,万齐林.“珍珠”台风卫星红外通道亮温的数值模拟[J].大气科学,2008,32(3):572-580.
[16]秦琰琰,龚建东,李泽椿,等.集合方根滤波同化多普勒雷达资料在一次飑线过程中的应用研究[J].气象学报,2014,72(1):133-151.
[17]秦琰琰,袭建东,李泽椿.集合卡尔曼滤波同化多普勒雷达资料的观测系统模拟试验[J].气象,2012,38(5):513-525.
[18]浦蓉,王振会,杨洪平,等.多普勒雷达反射率与径向风资料在数值模式中的应用试验[J].气象,2008,34(6):26-34.
[19]周玲丽,翟国庆,王东法,等.0505号“海棠”台风暴雨数值模拟试验和分析[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):489-500.
[20]何文勇,麦雪湖,欧坚莲,等.多普勒雷达资料同化对暴雨过程模拟的影响.气象研究与应用,2013,34(3):61-64.
[21]刘青松,董海萍,郭卫东,等.多普勒雷达资料的直接同化对降雨预报的影响[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(2):122-128.
[22]徐广阔,孙建华,雷霆,等.多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(1):36-46.
[23]李国静,徐幼平,成巍,等.一次大暴雨过程的多普勒雷达资料同化的敏感性试验[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):97-103.
[24]杨毅,邱崇践,龚建东,等.利用3维变分方法同化多普勒天气雷达资料的试验研究[J].气象科学,28(2):124-132.
[25]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[2]朱立娟,龚建东,李泽椿.资料同化中雷达VAD风质量控制研究[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1731-1738.
[3]Polkinghome R,Vukicevic T,Evans K F.Validation of cloudresolving model background data for cloud data assimilation[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,2010,138(3):781-795.
[4]丁伟钰,万齐林,张诚忠,等.有云条件下HIRS/3资料的同化及其对“珍珠”台风的影响[J].气象学报,2010,68(1):70-78.
[5]王叶红,赖安伟,赵玉春.地基微波辐射计资料同化对一次特大暴雨过程影响的数值试验研究[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(3):201-207.
[6]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:1-314.
[7]盛春岩,浦一芬,高守亭.多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):93-107.
[8]闵锦忠,彭霞云,赖安伟,等.反演同化和直接同化多普勒雷达径向风的对比试验[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6):745-754.
[9]施丽娟.雷达资料三维变分同化在登陆台风模拟中的应用[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2008:1-32.
[10]王遂缠,胡向军,张新荣,等.雷达资料同化在甘肃局地暴雨天气个例中的应用[J].高原气象,2011,30(3):711-718.
[11]杨银,朱克云,张杰,等.应用多普勒天气雷达资料对四川“7·3”暴雨的变分同化试验.成都信息工程学院学报,2013,28(1):17-23.
[12]李国静,徐幼平,成巍,等.一次大暴雨过程的多普勒雷达资料同化的敏感性试验[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):97-103.
[13]陶士伟,仲跻芹,徐枝芳,等.地面自动站资料质量控制方案及应用[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1202-1209.
[14]刘青松,董海萍,郭卫东,等.多普勒雷达资料的直接同化对降雨预报的影响[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(2):122-128.
[15]丁伟钰,万齐林.“珍珠”台风卫星红外通道亮温的数值模拟[J].大气科学,2008,32(3):572-580.
[16]秦琰琰,龚建东,李泽椿,等.集合方根滤波同化多普勒雷达资料在一次飑线过程中的应用研究[J].气象学报,2014,72(1):133-151.
[17]秦琰琰,袭建东,李泽椿.集合卡尔曼滤波同化多普勒雷达资料的观测系统模拟试验[J].气象,2012,38(5):513-525.
[18]浦蓉,王振会,杨洪平,等.多普勒雷达反射率与径向风资料在数值模式中的应用试验[J].气象,2008,34(6):26-34.
[19]周玲丽,翟国庆,王东法,等.0505号“海棠”台风暴雨数值模拟试验和分析[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):489-500.
[20]何文勇,麦雪湖,欧坚莲,等.多普勒雷达资料同化对暴雨过程模拟的影响.气象研究与应用,2013,34(3):61-64.
[21]刘青松,董海萍,郭卫东,等.多普勒雷达资料的直接同化对降雨预报的影响[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(2):122-128.
[22]徐广阔,孙建华,雷霆,等.多普勒天气雷达资料同化对暴雨模拟的影响[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(1):36-46.
[23]李国静,徐幼平,成巍,等.一次大暴雨过程的多普勒雷达资料同化的敏感性试验[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(2):97-103.
[24]杨毅,邱崇践,龚建东,等.利用3维变分方法同化多普勒天气雷达资料的试验研究[J].气象科学,28(2):124-132.
[25]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
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