1961—2013年滁州市气温和降水变化特征
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摘要
为探究气候变化下滁州市近53年气温和降水量变化特征,运用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和小波分析法,探究1961—2013年滁州市气温和降水的年代际变化特征、突变特征和周期特征。结果表明:(1)过去53年,滁州市年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.26℃/10 a;其中春季气温增势最明显,冬季和秋季次之,夏季气温略有增势。年降水量也呈明显的增加趋势,气候倾向率为15.60 mm/10 a;其中,夏季和冬季降水量呈增加趋势,而春季和秋季降水量呈减少趋势。(2)年平均气温在2001年发生增加突变,年降水量在1986年发生增加突变;年平均气温存在17年的主周期,年降水量存在17年左右的主周期和7~8年次周期。(3)气温和降水量呈明显的负相关。在全球变暖下,滁州市气温和降水量均呈增加趋势。
In order to investigate variation of precipitation and temperature in Chouzho City during 1961-2013, based on the methods of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall non parametric test and wavelet analysis, theinter-annual, inter-decadal and seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in Chouzhou City wereanalyzed. The results indicated that the annual and seasonal temperature exhibited a significantly increasingtrend with the rate of 0.26℃/10 a.(1) The increasing trend of temperature was the strongest in spring, strong inwinter and autumn, slighter in summer. Obviously, the annual precipitation also exhibited a significantlyincreasing trend with the rate of 15.60 mm/10 a, the precipitation in summer and winter exhibited anincreasing trend, whereas, the precipitation in spring and autumn exhibited a decreasing trend.(2) The annualtemperature had an abrupt increase in 2001, and the annual precipitation had an abrupt increase in 1986.Wavelet analysis indicated that the annual temperature had a 17- year periodic cycle and the annualprecipitation had a 17-year primary periodic cycle and a secondary periodic cycle of 7- 8 years.(3) Crosswavelet analysis indicated that the annual precipitation had a significantly negative correlation with annualtemperature. The temperature and precipitation in Chuzhou City all presented the increasing trend under theglobal climate change.
In order to investigate variation of precipitation and temperature in Chouzho City during 1961-2013, based on the methods of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall non parametric test and wavelet analysis, theinter-annual, inter-decadal and seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation in Chouzhou City wereanalyzed. The results indicated that the annual and seasonal temperature exhibited a significantly increasingtrend with the rate of 0.26℃/10 a.(1) The increasing trend of temperature was the strongest in spring, strong inwinter and autumn, slighter in summer. Obviously, the annual precipitation also exhibited a significantlyincreasing trend with the rate of 15.60 mm/10 a, the precipitation in summer and winter exhibited anincreasing trend, whereas, the precipitation in spring and autumn exhibited a decreasing trend.(2) The annualtemperature had an abrupt increase in 2001, and the annual precipitation had an abrupt increase in 1986.Wavelet analysis indicated that the annual temperature had a 17- year periodic cycle and the annualprecipitation had a 17-year primary periodic cycle and a secondary periodic cycle of 7- 8 years.(3) Crosswavelet analysis indicated that the annual precipitation had a significantly negative correlation with annualtemperature. The temperature and precipitation in Chuzhou City all presented the increasing trend under theglobal climate change.
引文
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[22]张晶晶,陈爽,赵昕奕.近50年中国气温变化的区域差异及其与全球气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):1-6.
[23]Pederson N,D’Amato A W,Dyer J M,et al.Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States[J].Global change biology,2015,21(6):2105-2110.
[24]贾香风,白丽芹,李必龙.洪洞县农业干旱灾害风险评价与区划研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(1):210-214.
[25]孙爽,杨晓光,赵锦,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响Ⅺ.气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区变化特征[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(10):1926-1941.
[2]Huang S,Krysanova V,Hattermann F.Projections of climate change impacts on floods and droughts in Germany using an ensemble of climate change scenarios[J].Regional Environmental Change,2015:1-13.
[3]周伟东,朱洁华,李军,等.华东地区热量资源的气候变化特征[J].Resources Science,2009,31(3):472-478.
[4]左洪超,吕世华,胡隐樵.中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):238-244.
[5]王冀,申红艳,张英娟,等.青海地区冬季气温年际变化及其成因分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):99-106.
[6]李燕,郑有飞,王志伟,等.山西忻州地区植物物候与气候变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(9):339-345.
[7]阿帕尔·肉孜,高培,等.新疆近50a气候的变化特征[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2014,6(4):356-362.
[8]Kisi O,Ay M.Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River,Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,513:362-375.
[9]孟万忠,刘晓峰,王尚义,等.1949—2000年山西高原低温冷害特征及小波分析[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(35):251-256.
[10]沈姣姣,寇小兰,巨晓璇,等.西安市汛期降雨特征的多尺度分析及未来趋势预测[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(2):219-224.
[11]Chansaengkrachang K,Luadsong A,Aschariyaphotha N.A Study of the Time Lags of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall Over Thailand by Using the Cross Wavelet Analysis[J].Arabian Journal Forence&Engineering,2015,40(1):215-225.
[12]Yu H L,Lin Y C.Analysis of space-time non-stationary patterns of rainfall-groundwater interactions by integrating empirical orthogonal function and cross wavelet transform methods[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,525:585-597.
[13]Karl T R,Arguez A,Huang B,et al.Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J].Science,2015,348(6242):1469-1472.
[14]徐斌,辛晓平,唐华俊,等.气候变化对我国农业地理分布的影响及对策[J].地理科学进展,2015(4):32-37.
[15]孙卫国,程炳岩,杨沈斌,等.区域气候变化对华东地区水稻产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):227-234.
[16]Challinor A J,Parkes B,Ramirez-Villegas J.Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity[J].Glob Chang Biol,2015,21(4):1679-1688.
[17]Reynolds L L,Johnson B R,Pfeifer-Meister L,et al.Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient[J].Global Change Biology,2015,21(1):487-500.
[18]Melles S J,Fortin M,Lindsay K,et al.Expanding northward:influence of climate change,forest connectivity,and population processes on a threatened species'range shift[J].Global Change Biology,2011,17(1):17-31.
[19]刘胜利,薛建福,张冉,等.气候变化背景下湖南省双季稻生产的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,6(34):246-252.
[20]胡亚男,郑金伟,潘根兴.2008年中国十省主要农业气象灾害动态及其影响分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(2):123-130.
[21]田展,徐新良,史军.气候变化对甘肃定西、安徽合肥小麦生产影响研究[J].地理科学进展,2015,25(4):90-97.
[22]张晶晶,陈爽,赵昕奕.近50年中国气温变化的区域差异及其与全球气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):1-6.
[23]Pederson N,D’Amato A W,Dyer J M,et al.Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States[J].Global change biology,2015,21(6):2105-2110.
[24]贾香风,白丽芹,李必龙.洪洞县农业干旱灾害风险评价与区划研究[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(1):210-214.
[25]孙爽,杨晓光,赵锦,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响Ⅺ.气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区变化特征[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(10):1926-1941.
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