安徽省农业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应研究
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摘要
对安徽省1998-2013年农业碳排放量进行测算,利用改进的Kaya恒等式与LMDI法对碳排放的驱动因素进行分解,并分析农业碳排放与农业经济增长之间的脱钩情况。结果表明:效率因素和劳动力因素负向驱动农业碳排放,产出因素和结构效应则正向驱动碳排放;农业碳排放与农业经济增长从2006年以后实现脱钩,环境压力与经济增长之间的矛盾趋于缓和。因此,建议从改进农业生产技术、改革农业生产模式和改变农业生产结构三方面促进农业生产减排。
On the basis of measuring and calculating agricultural carbon emission in Anhui province from 1998 to 2013,the paper factorizes its driving factors with modified Kaya Identical Equation and LMDI and analyzes the decoupling effect between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic increase. The result shows that efficiency factor and labor factor negatively drive agricultural carbon emission,whereas output factor and structural effect positively drive it; it is since 2006 that agricultural carbon emission has been decoupled from agricultural increase,with the result that the conflict between environmental pressure and economic increase mitigates. Therefore,improving agricultural production technology,reforming agricultural production models and transforming agricultural production patterns are proposed to promote carbon emission reduction in agricultural production.
On the basis of measuring and calculating agricultural carbon emission in Anhui province from 1998 to 2013,the paper factorizes its driving factors with modified Kaya Identical Equation and LMDI and analyzes the decoupling effect between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic increase. The result shows that efficiency factor and labor factor negatively drive agricultural carbon emission,whereas output factor and structural effect positively drive it; it is since 2006 that agricultural carbon emission has been decoupled from agricultural increase,with the result that the conflict between environmental pressure and economic increase mitigates. Therefore,improving agricultural production technology,reforming agricultural production models and transforming agricultural production patterns are proposed to promote carbon emission reduction in agricultural production.
引文
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[3]闵继胜,胡浩.中国农业生产温室气体排放量的计算[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2012(7):21-27.
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[5]李波,张俊飙,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2011(8):80-86.
[6]田素妍,郑微微,周力.中国畜禽养殖业低碳清洁技术的EKC假说检验[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2012(7):28-33.
[7]韩岳峰,张龙.中国农业碳排放变化因素分解研究[J].当代经济研究,2013(4):47-52.
[8]高标,房骄,许靖涛等.吉林省农业碳排放动态变化及驱动因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2013(9):617-624.
[9]Kaya Y.Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission Control on GNP Growth:Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios[C].Presented at the PICC Energy and Subgroup,Paris:Response Strategies Working Group,1990.
[10]Ang B W.Decomposition Analysis for Policy Marketing in Energy:Which is Preferred Method[J].Energy Policy,2004(9):1131-1139.
[11]OCED.Indicators Environmental Presuure from Economic Growth[R].Paris:OCED,2002.
[12]TAPIO P.Towards a theory of decoupling:Degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001[J].Journal of Transport Policy,2005(12):137-151.
[2]田云,李波,张俊飙.给予投入角度的农业碳排放时空特征及因素分解研究——以湖北省为例[J].农业现代化研究,2011(6):752-755.
[3]闵继胜,胡浩.中国农业生产温室气体排放量的计算[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2012(7):21-27.
[4]黄祖辉,米松华.农业碳足迹研究——以浙江省为例[J].农业经济问题,2011(9):93-98.
[5]李波,张俊飙,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2011(8):80-86.
[6]田素妍,郑微微,周力.中国畜禽养殖业低碳清洁技术的EKC假说检验[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2012(7):28-33.
[7]韩岳峰,张龙.中国农业碳排放变化因素分解研究[J].当代经济研究,2013(4):47-52.
[8]高标,房骄,许靖涛等.吉林省农业碳排放动态变化及驱动因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2013(9):617-624.
[9]Kaya Y.Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission Control on GNP Growth:Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios[C].Presented at the PICC Energy and Subgroup,Paris:Response Strategies Working Group,1990.
[10]Ang B W.Decomposition Analysis for Policy Marketing in Energy:Which is Preferred Method[J].Energy Policy,2004(9):1131-1139.
[11]OCED.Indicators Environmental Presuure from Economic Growth[R].Paris:OCED,2002.
[12]TAPIO P.Towards a theory of decoupling:Degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001[J].Journal of Transport Policy,2005(12):137-151.
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