ENSO事件对安徽省气候变化和旱涝灾害的影响
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摘要
选用1960—2012年安徽省降水与气温数据资料,利用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权插值法、相关分析法和X2拟合检验等方法分析了近53年来安徽省气温和降水的时空特征以及ENSO对气候变化和旱涝灾害的影响。结果发现:(1)近53年来,El Nino事件和La Nina事件的出现频数分别为16次和15次,El Nino事件多发生在春、夏2季,结束于冬季;La Nina事件多发生在夏、秋2季,结束于春、冬季;(2)从时间上看,近53年来安徽省年降水量呈微弱的增加趋势;年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,20世纪90年代后期升温趋势尤为明显;(3)空间上,降水量呈南多北少的分布特征,淮河以北降水呈减少趋势,而淮河以南则呈增加趋势;气温的高值中心位于皖南山区和大别山区;(4)El Nino事件使得降水量减少,气温增加,而La Nina事件使得降水量增加,气温降低,并且存在一定程度的滞后性;(5)El Nino事件和La Nina事件分别与安徽省的旱灾和涝灾存在显著的关系,旱涝灾害大多发生在ENSO事件年的当年、次年或前一年,且旱灾在连续性的El Nino事件年发生的概率更大。
Based on the precipitation and air temperature data in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2012, this paper took methods such as linearity trend estimation, inverse distance weighted, correlation analysis and X2 fitting inspection methods and so on to analyze spatial and temporal variations of climate and the influence of ENSO on climate change and drought and flood disasters in Anhui during the past 53 years. The results indicated that :(1) El Nino events and La Nina occurred 16 and 15 times, respectively, in the past 53 years, the El Nino events occurred mostly in spring and summer and ended in winter, while La Nina events occurred in summer and autumn, ended in spring and winter;(2) from the time, the precipitation in Anhui was increasing annually, the change of annual mean air temperature showed a statistically significant increasing trend, in the late 1990 s warming trend was obvious;(3) from the space, the distribution characteristics of precipitation in the south of Anhui was more than that in the north; precipitation showed a trend of decrease in the north of theHuaihe river but a trend of increase in the south of the Huaihe river; the temperature was higher in southern mountain area and Dabieshan area;(4) El Nino event caused precipitation decrease and temperature increase,while La Nina event caused precipitation increase and temperature decrease, and had a certain degree of lagging;(5) El Nino and La Nina events had significant relationship with the drought and waterlog in Anhui Province, the drought and flood disaster occurred mostly in ENSO events years, the next year or the year before ENSO events, and the risk of drought was higher in the continuous El Nino years.
Based on the precipitation and air temperature data in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2012, this paper took methods such as linearity trend estimation, inverse distance weighted, correlation analysis and X2 fitting inspection methods and so on to analyze spatial and temporal variations of climate and the influence of ENSO on climate change and drought and flood disasters in Anhui during the past 53 years. The results indicated that :(1) El Nino events and La Nina occurred 16 and 15 times, respectively, in the past 53 years, the El Nino events occurred mostly in spring and summer and ended in winter, while La Nina events occurred in summer and autumn, ended in spring and winter;(2) from the time, the precipitation in Anhui was increasing annually, the change of annual mean air temperature showed a statistically significant increasing trend, in the late 1990 s warming trend was obvious;(3) from the space, the distribution characteristics of precipitation in the south of Anhui was more than that in the north; precipitation showed a trend of decrease in the north of theHuaihe river but a trend of increase in the south of the Huaihe river; the temperature was higher in southern mountain area and Dabieshan area;(4) El Nino event caused precipitation decrease and temperature increase,while La Nina event caused precipitation increase and temperature decrease, and had a certain degree of lagging;(5) El Nino and La Nina events had significant relationship with the drought and waterlog in Anhui Province, the drought and flood disaster occurred mostly in ENSO events years, the next year or the year before ENSO events, and the risk of drought was higher in the continuous El Nino years.
引文
[1]许武成,王文,马劲松,等.1951-2007年ENSO事件及其特征值[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(4):18-24.
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[4]Kiladis G N,Diaz H F.Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation[J].Journal of Climate,1989,2(9):1069-1090.
[5]李崇银,穆穆,周广庆,等.ENSO机理及其预测研究[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):761-781.
[6]Huang R H,Wu Y F.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate in China and its mechanism[J].Advance in Atmospheric Sciences,1990,6(1):21-32.
[7]Zhang Q,Zeng J,Zhang L Y.Characteristics of land surface thermal-hydrologic processes for different regions over North China during prevailing summer monsoon period[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2012,55(1):1-9.
[8]李威,翟盘茂.中国极端强降水日数与ENSO的关系[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(6):336-342.
[9]王志福,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):1-9.
[10]韩文韬,卫捷,沈新勇.近50年中国冬季气温对ENSO响应的时空稳定性分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(1):97-106.
[11]卢爱刚,葛剑平,等.40年来中国旱灾对ENSO事件的区域差异响应研究[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(4):535-542.
[12]唐晓春,袁中友.近六十年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响[J].地理研究,2010,29(11):1932-1939.
[13]张俊,施能,等.1948-2001年全球旱、涝变化和ENSO的关系[J].气象科学,2006,26(5):478-482.
[14]王腾,延军平,等.太阳活动与ENSO事件对汉江谷地旱涝灾害影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(7):107-112.
[15]殷淑燕,任利利,黄春长.ENSO事件对汉江上游暴雨洪水影响的研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1096-1101.
[16]刘凤舞.安徽省防汛抗旱气象手册[M].北京:气象出版社,1998:1-20.
[17]翟武全.中国气象灾害大典安徽卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-2.
[18]王胜,田红,谢五三,等.近50年安徽省气候舒适度变化特征及区划研究[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(1):40-45.
[19]谢五三,田红.五种干旱指标在安徽省应用研究[J].气象,2011,37(4):503-507.
[20]王胜,石磊,田红,等.安徽省台风降水气候特征及其对农业的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2010,15(3):108-113.
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[23]程先富,余芬.安徽省土壤侵蚀空间分布及其与环境因子的关系[J].地理研究,2010(8):1461-1470.
[24]王芝兰,王劲松,李耀辉,等.标准化降水指数与广义极值分布干旱指数在西北地区应用的对比分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):839-847.
[25]李晓燕,翟盘茂.ENSO事件指数与指标研究[J].气象学报,2000,58(1):102-109.
[26]李崇银.关于ENSO本质的进一步研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):160-175.
[27]张人禾,巢纪平.对ENSO循环机理的一些新认识[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):175-183.
[28]Trenberth K E.The definition of El Nino[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78(12):2771-2777.
[29]王绍武,龚道溢.近百年来的ENSO事件及其强度[J].气象,1999,25(1):9-13.
[30]Chen W,Lan X Q,Wang L,et al.The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(12):1355-1362.
[31]杨亚力,杜岩,陈海山,等.ENSO事件对云南及临近地区春末初夏降水的影响[J].大气科学,2011,35(4):729-738.
[32]郑浩,许武成,孙高敏.ENSO事件对川西高原区气候的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2013(1):40-46.
[33]龚道溢,王绍武.近百年来ENSO对全球陆地及中国降水的影响[J].科学通报,1999,44(3):315-320.
[34]信忠保,谢志仁.ENSO事件对淮河流域降水的影响[J].气象科学,2005,25(4):346-354.
[35]Xu Z X,Takeuchi K,Ishidaira H.Correlation between El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and precipitation in South-east Asia and the Pacific region[J].Hydrological processes,2004,18(1):107-123.
[36]侯威,杨杰,赵俊虎.不同时间尺度下气象旱涝强度评估指数[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):695-703.
[37]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[38]Labcdzki L.Estimation of local drought frequency in central Poland using the standardized precipitation index SPI[J].Irrigation and Drainage,2007,56(1):67-77.
[39]张强,鞠笑生,李淑华.三种干旱指标的比较和新指标的确定[J].气象科技,1998(2):48-52.
[40]温克刚,翟武全.中国气象灾害大典安徽卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:10-12.
[41]马国顺,冯德成,周玉兰.概率论与数理统计[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社,2009:126-128.
[42]刘钧枢,赵贻成,涂方旭.气象站天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1985:150-169
[2]龙振夏,李崇银.ENSO对其后东亚机锋活动影响的GCM模拟研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(6):651-661.
[3]Jones P D.The influence of ENSO on global temperatures[J].Climate Monitor,1988,17(3):80-89.
[4]Kiladis G N,Diaz H F.Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation[J].Journal of Climate,1989,2(9):1069-1090.
[5]李崇银,穆穆,周广庆,等.ENSO机理及其预测研究[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):761-781.
[6]Huang R H,Wu Y F.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate in China and its mechanism[J].Advance in Atmospheric Sciences,1990,6(1):21-32.
[7]Zhang Q,Zeng J,Zhang L Y.Characteristics of land surface thermal-hydrologic processes for different regions over North China during prevailing summer monsoon period[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2012,55(1):1-9.
[8]李威,翟盘茂.中国极端强降水日数与ENSO的关系[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(6):336-342.
[9]王志福,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):1-9.
[10]韩文韬,卫捷,沈新勇.近50年中国冬季气温对ENSO响应的时空稳定性分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(1):97-106.
[11]卢爱刚,葛剑平,等.40年来中国旱灾对ENSO事件的区域差异响应研究[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(4):535-542.
[12]唐晓春,袁中友.近六十年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响[J].地理研究,2010,29(11):1932-1939.
[13]张俊,施能,等.1948-2001年全球旱、涝变化和ENSO的关系[J].气象科学,2006,26(5):478-482.
[14]王腾,延军平,等.太阳活动与ENSO事件对汉江谷地旱涝灾害影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(7):107-112.
[15]殷淑燕,任利利,黄春长.ENSO事件对汉江上游暴雨洪水影响的研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1096-1101.
[16]刘凤舞.安徽省防汛抗旱气象手册[M].北京:气象出版社,1998:1-20.
[17]翟武全.中国气象灾害大典安徽卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-2.
[18]王胜,田红,谢五三,等.近50年安徽省气候舒适度变化特征及区划研究[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(1):40-45.
[19]谢五三,田红.五种干旱指标在安徽省应用研究[J].气象,2011,37(4):503-507.
[20]王胜,石磊,田红,等.安徽省台风降水气候特征及其对农业的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2010,15(3):108-113.
[21]许信旺,孙满英,方宇媛,等.安徽省气候变化对水稻生产的影响及应对[J].农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9):1755-1763
[22]黄大鹏,郑伟,张人禾,等.安徽淮河流域洪涝灾害防灾减灾能力评估[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):523-530.
[23]程先富,余芬.安徽省土壤侵蚀空间分布及其与环境因子的关系[J].地理研究,2010(8):1461-1470.
[24]王芝兰,王劲松,李耀辉,等.标准化降水指数与广义极值分布干旱指数在西北地区应用的对比分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):839-847.
[25]李晓燕,翟盘茂.ENSO事件指数与指标研究[J].气象学报,2000,58(1):102-109.
[26]李崇银.关于ENSO本质的进一步研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):160-175.
[27]张人禾,巢纪平.对ENSO循环机理的一些新认识[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):175-183.
[28]Trenberth K E.The definition of El Nino[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1997,78(12):2771-2777.
[29]王绍武,龚道溢.近百年来的ENSO事件及其强度[J].气象,1999,25(1):9-13.
[30]Chen W,Lan X Q,Wang L,et al.The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(12):1355-1362.
[31]杨亚力,杜岩,陈海山,等.ENSO事件对云南及临近地区春末初夏降水的影响[J].大气科学,2011,35(4):729-738.
[32]郑浩,许武成,孙高敏.ENSO事件对川西高原区气候的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2013(1):40-46.
[33]龚道溢,王绍武.近百年来ENSO对全球陆地及中国降水的影响[J].科学通报,1999,44(3):315-320.
[34]信忠保,谢志仁.ENSO事件对淮河流域降水的影响[J].气象科学,2005,25(4):346-354.
[35]Xu Z X,Takeuchi K,Ishidaira H.Correlation between El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and precipitation in South-east Asia and the Pacific region[J].Hydrological processes,2004,18(1):107-123.
[36]侯威,杨杰,赵俊虎.不同时间尺度下气象旱涝强度评估指数[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):695-703.
[37]翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[38]Labcdzki L.Estimation of local drought frequency in central Poland using the standardized precipitation index SPI[J].Irrigation and Drainage,2007,56(1):67-77.
[39]张强,鞠笑生,李淑华.三种干旱指标的比较和新指标的确定[J].气象科技,1998(2):48-52.
[40]温克刚,翟武全.中国气象灾害大典安徽卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:10-12.
[41]马国顺,冯德成,周玉兰.概率论与数理统计[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社,2009:126-128.
[42]刘钧枢,赵贻成,涂方旭.气象站天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1985:150-169
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