基于降水集中度方法的安徽省主汛期降水时空特征分析
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摘要
利用安徽省1961-2009年6-8月降水资料,运用降水集中度和集中期分别讨论了主汛期降水时空分布特征和变化规律,并对多雨年和少雨年的集中度进行了比较。结果表明:降水集中度(PCD)和集中期(PCP)能够定量地表征降水量在时空场上的非均一性。安徽省主汛期降水集中度和集中期总体呈由南向北增大的空间分布;全省平均PCD值和PCP值的年际和年代际变化均较明显。PCD的EOF展开前三个特征向量累积方差贡献率达57%。第一特征向量表现为全省一致性,而第二特征向量表征为南北反相,第三特征向量表征为南北和中间反相。合成分析表明,多雨年的PCD值比少雨年大,而多雨年PCP值比少雨年小。总体来看,通过PCD和PCP提取最大降水重心及对应时段,为分析极端降水事件形成机制提供依据。
Based on the precipitation data from June to August of Anhui province during 1961-2009,the spatial-temporal distribution and variation of precipitation were analyzed by using the Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period(PCP) in main flood season,and the PCD were compared between more precipitation year and less precipitation year.The results showed that the PCD and PCP could quantitatively represent the non-uniformity properties of the precipitation spatial-temporal distribution.The spatial distribution increasing trend of PCD and PCP were obvious from south to north over Anhui province during main flood season;the inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of PCD and PCP were obvious.EOF analysis showed that the ratio of the front three eigenvectors with total square error was 57%.The first eigenvector represented the conformity PCD variation over Anhui province,the second eigenvector represented the reverse PCD variation between the south and north,and the third eigenvector showed that the reverse PCD variation between south-north and the central region.The synthetic analysis showed that the PCD in more precipitation years was greater than that in less precipitation years,and the PCP was smaller than in the less precipitation years.The gravity of precipitation and its corresponding periods could be extracted by using the PCD and PCP method,which could provided the basis for the formation mechanism of extreme precipitation events.
Based on the precipitation data from June to August of Anhui province during 1961-2009,the spatial-temporal distribution and variation of precipitation were analyzed by using the Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period(PCP) in main flood season,and the PCD were compared between more precipitation year and less precipitation year.The results showed that the PCD and PCP could quantitatively represent the non-uniformity properties of the precipitation spatial-temporal distribution.The spatial distribution increasing trend of PCD and PCP were obvious from south to north over Anhui province during main flood season;the inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of PCD and PCP were obvious.EOF analysis showed that the ratio of the front three eigenvectors with total square error was 57%.The first eigenvector represented the conformity PCD variation over Anhui province,the second eigenvector represented the reverse PCD variation between the south and north,and the third eigenvector showed that the reverse PCD variation between south-north and the central region.The synthetic analysis showed that the PCD in more precipitation years was greater than that in less precipitation years,and the PCP was smaller than in the less precipitation years.The gravity of precipitation and its corresponding periods could be extracted by using the PCD and PCP method,which could provided the basis for the formation mechanism of extreme precipitation events.
引文
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[2]马晓群,盛绍学,张爱民.降水对安徽省长江以北地区旱情演变趋势的影响[J].中国农业气象,2001,22(3):19-23.
[3]王效瑞,徐敏.安徽省夏季降水量的若干统计特征[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002,25(3):281-285.
[4]周后福,马奋华.长江中下游梅雨及其中长期预测技术的研究概述[J].气象教育与科技,2002,24(1):4-8.
[5]刘勇,徐敏,朱红芳,等.安徽梅雨年际变化特征研究[J].气象科学,2004,24(4):488-493.
[6]丁峰.安徽省降水量时空分布特征分析[J].安徽水利水电职业技术学院学报,2007,7(4):7-9.
[7]翟武全.中国气象灾害大典.安徽卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:10-183.
[8]Zhang L J,Qian Y F.Annual distribution features of the yearlyprecipitation in China and their interannual variations[J].Ac-ta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,17(2):146-163.
[9]姜爱军,杜银,谢志清,等.中国强降水过程时空集中度气候趋势[J].地理学报,2005,60(6):1007-1014.
[10]戴廷仁,陆忠艳,李广霞,等.近46年辽宁省降水集中程度研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):32-37.
[11]张录军,钱永甫.长江流域汛期降水集中程度和洪涝关系研究[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(4):622-630.
[12]汤奇成,程天文,李秀云.中国河川月径流的集中度和集中期的初步研究[J].地理学报,1982,37(4):383-393.
[13]张林梅,庄晓翠,胡磊,等.新疆阿勒泰地区汛期降水集中度和集中期的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):501-508.
[14]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:208-244.
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:36-143.
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