安徽省一季稻生长气候适宜性评价指标的建立与试用
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摘要
结合已有研究成果和一季稻的生理特征,采用模糊数学方法分别建立了安徽省分区域一季稻温度、降水和日照适宜度模型,并在此基础上建立了综合反映多因子对一季稻影响的气候适宜度模型。通过对不同时段内单要素适宜度和气候适宜度的集成,构建了分区域一季稻单要素适区指数和气候适宜指数模型,并对两种集成方法进行了比较。基于气候适宜指数与一季稻产量的关系,建立了不同时间尺度的气候适宜性评价指标。结果表明:归一化法气候适宜指数模型优于绝对值法,气候适宜指数与产量丰歉指数具有显著相关性;气候适宜性评价指标对一季稻的产量具有较好的区分度,指标回代检验准确率较高,业务试用效果良好,可以用之评价气候条件对一季稻生长发育和产量形成的适宜程度。
On the basis of the physiological characteristics of single cropping rice and existing research results, the suitability models in different regions about temperature,precipitation and sunshine are constructed. In order to express the synergetic effect of meteorological factors and yields,a climatic suitability model of single cropping rice is established.According to suitability of single cropping rice in different periods, suitability indicator models on different time scales are set up by two methods.Based on the relationship between climate suitability index and single cropping rice yield,climatic suitability indicators on different time scales are set up.The results indicated that the climatic suitability index constructed by the normalization method is much better than that by the absolute value method.The discrimination of climatic suitability indicators is suitable for measuring the level of single cropping rice yield.Climatic suitability indicators have high evaluation accuracy,thus it can meet the needs of operational services and can be used in evaluating the suitable level of climatic condition on rice growth and yield.
On the basis of the physiological characteristics of single cropping rice and existing research results, the suitability models in different regions about temperature,precipitation and sunshine are constructed. In order to express the synergetic effect of meteorological factors and yields,a climatic suitability model of single cropping rice is established.According to suitability of single cropping rice in different periods, suitability indicator models on different time scales are set up by two methods.Based on the relationship between climate suitability index and single cropping rice yield,climatic suitability indicators on different time scales are set up.The results indicated that the climatic suitability index constructed by the normalization method is much better than that by the absolute value method.The discrimination of climatic suitability indicators is suitable for measuring the level of single cropping rice yield.Climatic suitability indicators have high evaluation accuracy,thus it can meet the needs of operational services and can be used in evaluating the suitable level of climatic condition on rice growth and yield.
引文
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蒋定生,黄国俊,帅启富,等.1 992.渭北旱塬降水对农作物生长适宜度的模糊分析.中科院水利部西北水土保持研究集刊,(16):61- 71.
李昊宇,王建林,郑昌玲,等.2012.气候适宜度在华北冬小麦发育期预报中的应用.气象,待发表.
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魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.2009.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法.应用气象学报,20(5):622-627.
魏瑞江,张文宗,康西言,等.2007.河北省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型的建立及应用.干旱地区农业研究,25(6):5-9.
徐学选,高鹏,蒋定生.2000.延安降水对农作物生长适宜性的模糊分析.水土保持研究,7(2):73-76.
易雪,王建林,宋迎波.2010.气候适宜指数在早稻产量动态预报上的应用.气象,36(6):85-89.
俞芬,千怀遂,段海来.2008.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析地理科学,28(4):537-542.
赵峰,千怀遂,焦士兴.2003.农作物气候适宜度模型研究.资源科学, 11(6):76-82.
蒋定生,黄国俊,帅启富,等.1 992.渭北旱塬降水对农作物生长适宜度的模糊分析.中科院水利部西北水土保持研究集刊,(16):61- 71.
李昊宇,王建林,郑昌玲,等.2012.气候适宜度在华北冬小麦发育期预报中的应用.气象,待发表.
马树庆.1994.吉林省农业气候研究.北京:气象出版社,33.
毛留喜,吕厚荃.2010.国家级农业气象业务技术综述.气象,36(7): 75-80.
钱拴,毛留喜,侯英雨,等.2008.北方草地生态气象综合监测预测技术及其应.气象,34(11):62-68.
任玉玉,千怀遂.2006.河南省棉花气候适宜度变化趋势分析.应用气象学报,17(1):87-92.
王建林.2010.现代农业气象业务.北京:气象出版社,4.
魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.2009.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法.应用气象学报,20(5):622-627.
魏瑞江,张文宗,康西言,等.2007.河北省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型的建立及应用.干旱地区农业研究,25(6):5-9.
徐学选,高鹏,蒋定生.2000.延安降水对农作物生长适宜性的模糊分析.水土保持研究,7(2):73-76.
易雪,王建林,宋迎波.2010.气候适宜指数在早稻产量动态预报上的应用.气象,36(6):85-89.
俞芬,千怀遂,段海来.2008.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析地理科学,28(4):537-542.
赵峰,千怀遂,焦士兴.2003.农作物气候适宜度模型研究.资源科学, 11(6):76-82.
目录