巢湖塘西河河口湿地重金属污染风险不确定性评价
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摘要
基于污染风险评价系统多种不确定性共存的特点,采用盲数描述和表征重金属污染风险评价模型的各项参数,在对采自巢湖塘西河河口湿地24个表层沉积物柱状样中Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd和Cr等指标分析测试的基础上,采用Matlab工具软件编制的潜在生态风险指数盲数评价模型程序,对巢湖塘西河河口湿地重金属污染风险进行定量评估.结果表明:巢湖塘西河河口湿地处于中等污染至较高污染状态,其相应的可信度分别为0.589和0.411;潜在生态风险等级属较低至中等水平,其相应可信度分别为0.755和0.245.5种重金属污染程度排序依次为Cu>Cd>Zn>Pb>Cr;潜在生态风险水平排序依次为Cd>Cu>Pb>Cr>Zn.
Based on the characteristics of coexistence of multiple uncertainties in a risk assessment system,blind number theory was used to describe the assessment parameters of the heavy metal pollution risk assessment model.By analyzing the contents of heavy metal elements Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd and Cr in 24 sediment cores sampled from Tangxi River estuarine wetland in Chaohu Lake,risk assessment was conducted by means of a potential ecological risk blind model,and was improved with the aid of a compiled program developed using Matlab tools.The results indicate that the environmental quality of Tangxi River estuarine wetland is at a state between moderate and high pollution levels,with respective credible degrees of 0.589 and 0.411.The corresponding potential ecological risk is at a state between low and moderate risk levels,with respective credible degrees of 0.755 and 0.245.In general,the rank order of the analyzed heavy metals in the estuarine wetland,arranged from the highest to the lowest pollution degree,was as follows: Cu>Cd>Zn>Pb>Cr.The potential ecological risk to the Tangxi River estuarine wetland was: Cd>Cu>Pb>Cr>Zn.
Based on the characteristics of coexistence of multiple uncertainties in a risk assessment system,blind number theory was used to describe the assessment parameters of the heavy metal pollution risk assessment model.By analyzing the contents of heavy metal elements Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd and Cr in 24 sediment cores sampled from Tangxi River estuarine wetland in Chaohu Lake,risk assessment was conducted by means of a potential ecological risk blind model,and was improved with the aid of a compiled program developed using Matlab tools.The results indicate that the environmental quality of Tangxi River estuarine wetland is at a state between moderate and high pollution levels,with respective credible degrees of 0.589 and 0.411.The corresponding potential ecological risk is at a state between low and moderate risk levels,with respective credible degrees of 0.755 and 0.245.In general,the rank order of the analyzed heavy metals in the estuarine wetland,arranged from the highest to the lowest pollution degree,was as follows: Cu>Cd>Zn>Pb>Cr.The potential ecological risk to the Tangxi River estuarine wetland was: Cd>Cu>Pb>Cr>Zn.
引文
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[2]洪天求,潘国林,刘路,等.巢湖十五里河河口湿地植被动态变化研究[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2007,30(1):68-72.
[3]FARKAS A,ERRATICO C,VIGANO L.Assessment of theenvironmental significance of heavy metal pollution in surficialsediments of the River Po[J].Chemosphere,2007,68(4):761-768.
[4]CIBICT,ACQUAVITA A,ALEFFI F,et al.Integrated approach tosediment pollution:a case studyinthe Gulf of Trieste[J].Mar PollutBull,2008,56(9):1650-1657.
[5]GHREFAT H,YUSUGF N.Assessing Mn,Fe,Cu,Zn and Cdpollution in bottom sediments of Wadi Al-Arab Dam,Jordan[J].Chemosphere,2006,65(11):2114-2121.
[6]郝泽嘉,周丰,郭怀成.香港海域表层沉积物重金属空间分析[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(6):110-117.
[7]李莲芳,曾希柏,李国学,等.北京市温榆河沉积物的重金属污染风险评价[J].环境科学学报,2007,27(2):289-297.
[8]马德毅,王菊英.中国主要河口沉积物污染及潜在生态风险评价[J].中国环境科学,2003,23(5):521-525.
[9]H KANSONL.An ecological riskindexfor aquaticpollution control:a sedimentological approach[J].Water Res,1980,14(8):975-1001.
[10]孟红明,张振克.石梁河水库沉积物中重金属的累积污染研究[J].环境科学研究,2008,21(3):44-50.
[11]王鑫,孙丽娜,孙铁珩,等.细河流域土壤中重金属的污染现状及潜在生态风险[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(1):66-70.
[12]于文金,邹欣庆.灌河口潮滩重金属累积特征及污染评价[J].地球化学,2007,36(4):425-433.
[13]李如忠,洪天求,贾志海,等.基于盲数的水体沉积物潜在生态风险评价方法[J].生态环境,2007,16(5):1346-1352.
[14]刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999:58-90.
[15]张德丰.Matlab数值分析与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007:35-70.
[16]石博强,肖成勇.系统不确定性的数值计算方法[J].北京科技大学学报,2003,25(4):374-376.
[17]石博强,赵德祥,李海鹏,等.基于盲数理论的最优化方法与程序实现[J].北京科技大学学报,2007,29(5):524-527.
[18]中国环境监测总站.中国土壤元素背景值[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1990:329-497.
[19]李海鹏,石博强,张文明.基于盲数理论的机械稳健性优化设计[J].北京科技大学学报,2006,28(12):1178-1181.
[20]肖成勇.基于支持向量机和盲数的故障智能诊断研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2007:80-102.
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