安徽省能源消费碳排放足迹的动态变化及因素分解
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摘要
文章采用生态足迹模型与因素分解分析模型,定量分析了1995—2008年安徽省能源消费碳排放足迹的变动趋势、生态效应以及影响因素。结果表明:近15a安徽省碳排放足迹呈上升态势,煤炭足迹在其中占主导地位;碳足迹强度呈幂指数衰减,而碳足迹生态压力不断上升,说明碳排放对自然生态系统的压力逐渐增大。因素分解结果显示,经济增长效应是近些年安徽省碳足迹增加的主要因素,能源强度效应是抑制碳足迹增长的主要原因,而人口效应和结构效应对碳排放的贡献不大。
In this paper,the dynamic change,ecological effect and influencing factors of carbon footprint of energy consumption in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2008 are analyzed by ecological footprint model and factor decomposition model.The results show that during the past fifteen years,carbon footprint in Anhui Province is on the rise with coal footprint in the majority.An exponential decreasing trend is observed for carbon footprint intensity,whereas the ecological pressure intensity of carbon footprint is increasing,implying that the pressure of carbon emission on natural ecological system is enhancing.According to the results of factor decomposition,the economic growth and the energy intensity effect are main reasons for increasing and restraining the carbon footprint respectively.The effects of population and structure on the carbon emission are limited.
In this paper,the dynamic change,ecological effect and influencing factors of carbon footprint of energy consumption in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2008 are analyzed by ecological footprint model and factor decomposition model.The results show that during the past fifteen years,carbon footprint in Anhui Province is on the rise with coal footprint in the majority.An exponential decreasing trend is observed for carbon footprint intensity,whereas the ecological pressure intensity of carbon footprint is increasing,implying that the pressure of carbon emission on natural ecological system is enhancing.According to the results of factor decomposition,the economic growth and the energy intensity effect are main reasons for increasing and restraining the carbon footprint respectively.The effects of population and structure on the carbon emission are limited.
引文
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[2]Wu L,Kaneko S,Matsuoka S.Dynamics of energy-relatedCO2emissions in China during 1980to 2002:the relativeimportance of energy supply-side and demand-side effects[J].Energy Policy,2006,34(18):3549-3572.
[3]穆存远,夏南.低碳经济下的可持续产品设计与服务[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2011,34(2):278-281.
[4]Wackernagel M,Rees W E.Our ecological footprint:re-ducing human impact on the earth[M].Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers,1996:5-89.
[5]熊鸿斌,李远东,谷良平.生态足迹在城市规划环评中的应用[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2010,33(6):897-900,910.
[6]刘淼,胡远满,李月辉,等.生态足迹方法及研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(3):334-339.
[7]徐中民,程国栋,张志强.生态足迹方法的理论解析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2006,16(6):69-78.
[8]韩亚芬,孙根年,李琦.安徽省工业绿色距离和生态产业分类研究[J].华东经济管理,2010,24(6):12-16.
[9]郭运功,汪冬冬,林逢春.上海市能源利用碳排放足迹研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(2):103-108.
[10]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995—2004[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161.
[11]温景光.江苏省碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2010,24(2):29-32.
[12]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factorizing changes inenergy and environmental indicators through decomposi-tion[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[13]安徽省统计局.安徽统计年鉴系列[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1996-2009.
[14]国家统计局.中国能源统计年鉴系列[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1996-2009.
目录