指数平滑法-马尔科夫模型在巢湖水质预测中的应用
|
摘要
水质预测是水环境管理的重要内容,对工农业生产具有较好的指导意义。以巢湖为例,针对水质变化的随机性,应用指数平滑法-马尔科夫预测法,对合肥湖滨与巢湖裕溪口两大断面2001-2010年的CODMn、TP、TN数据进行指数平滑处理,预测2011-2013年水质,发现未来几年需要注意TN以及东半湖CODMn的变化,这对宏观上把握水质变化趋势以及污染因子的动态有一定的指导意义,同时也发现指数平滑与马尔科夫预测的结果是一致的,将两者结合,可较好的运用于水质预测中。
Prediction of water quality is an important method of water environment management and has good guidance significance to industrial and agricultural production.Taking Chaohu Lake for example,aiming at the randomness of the changes in water quality,applying exponential smoothing method-Markov prediction,processing the data of CODMn,TP,TN of the two cross-section of the Hefei Lakeside and Chaohu Yuxikou during 2001-2010 by exponential smoothing,the paper forecasted the water quality from 2011 to 2013,and found out that the changes of TN as well as CODMn of the eastern half of Lake need to be paid attention to in the next few years.Which has certain guiding significance to grasp water quality change and pollution factor trend.Also found out that the forecast results of exponential smoothing method keep consistent with that of the Markov's prediction,the combination of the two can be better applied to the prediction of water quality.
Prediction of water quality is an important method of water environment management and has good guidance significance to industrial and agricultural production.Taking Chaohu Lake for example,aiming at the randomness of the changes in water quality,applying exponential smoothing method-Markov prediction,processing the data of CODMn,TP,TN of the two cross-section of the Hefei Lakeside and Chaohu Yuxikou during 2001-2010 by exponential smoothing,the paper forecasted the water quality from 2011 to 2013,and found out that the changes of TN as well as CODMn of the eastern half of Lake need to be paid attention to in the next few years.Which has certain guiding significance to grasp water quality change and pollution factor trend.Also found out that the forecast results of exponential smoothing method keep consistent with that of the Markov's prediction,the combination of the two can be better applied to the prediction of water quality.
引文
[1]邱林,黄鑫,李洪良.基于模糊权马尔可夫模型的综合水质预测[J].人民长江,2007,38(1):75-77.
[2]张永祥,蔡德所,唐迎春.马尔可夫链式灰色模型在南宁邕江水质预测中的应用[J].广西水利水电,2007(3):1-3.
[3]孙志霞,孙英兰.GM(1,1)模型研究及其在水质预测中的应用[J].海洋通报,2009,28(4):116-120.
[4]李明昌,梁书秀,孙昭晨,等.海域组合单元水质模型参数反演方法研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2010,18(3):408-418.
[5]刘章军,叶燎原.模糊概率模型及其在地下水水质评价中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2007,15(3):286-293.
[6]徐坤,牟春友.运用方差分析法分析白城市月亮湖水库水质[J].中国环境监测,2009,25(2):67-68.
[7]岳遥,李天宏.基于模糊集理论的马尔可夫模型在水质定量预测中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2011,19(2):231-242.
[8]王长江.指数平滑法中平滑系数的选择研究[J].中北大学学报(自然科学版),2006,27(6):558-561.
[9]刘造保,徐卫亚,张开普,等.基于改进指数平滑法的岩体边坡变形预测[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3):313-316.
[10]张盼月,钟政林,曾光明,等.马尔科夫过程在河流综合水质预报中的应用[J].环境工程,1997,15(2):41-44.
[11]张树冬,李伟光,南军,等.加权马尔可夫链预测源水水质的应用研究[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(13):111-113.
[12]秦松.基于加权的滑动平均-马尔科夫预测模型及其应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2013,24(1):185-188.
[13]He B,Che C,Ga D H.Evaluation of water quality basedon Markov process[J].Environmental Engineering,2003,21(2):60-62.
[14]牛军宜,冯平.基于Markov状态切换的水质时序自回归预测模型[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2010,40(3):657-664.
[15]Yun Yi,Zou Zhihong,Feng Wei,et al.Quantificationalanalysis on progress of river water quality in China originalresearch article[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2009,21(6):770-773.
[16]陈启明,陈华友.基于Markov链的最优化模型在长江水质预测中的应用[J].安徽工业大学学报(自然科学版),2011,28(1):78-81.
[17]程万里,李亦芳,郝伏勤,等.黄河三门峡段基于马尔科夫模型的水质预测[J].电力环境保护,2008,24(3):8-11.
[18]李娟,张维江,马轶.滑动平均-马尔可夫模型在降水预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(6):196-205.
[19]冯为,邹志红.河流水质的动态马尔柯夫评价[J].环境工程学报,2007,1(8):132-135.
[20]余秋梅,印士勇,周良伟.巢湖水环境质量现状分析[J].人民长江,2001,32(7):29-30.
[2]张永祥,蔡德所,唐迎春.马尔可夫链式灰色模型在南宁邕江水质预测中的应用[J].广西水利水电,2007(3):1-3.
[3]孙志霞,孙英兰.GM(1,1)模型研究及其在水质预测中的应用[J].海洋通报,2009,28(4):116-120.
[4]李明昌,梁书秀,孙昭晨,等.海域组合单元水质模型参数反演方法研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2010,18(3):408-418.
[5]刘章军,叶燎原.模糊概率模型及其在地下水水质评价中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2007,15(3):286-293.
[6]徐坤,牟春友.运用方差分析法分析白城市月亮湖水库水质[J].中国环境监测,2009,25(2):67-68.
[7]岳遥,李天宏.基于模糊集理论的马尔可夫模型在水质定量预测中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2011,19(2):231-242.
[8]王长江.指数平滑法中平滑系数的选择研究[J].中北大学学报(自然科学版),2006,27(6):558-561.
[9]刘造保,徐卫亚,张开普,等.基于改进指数平滑法的岩体边坡变形预测[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3):313-316.
[10]张盼月,钟政林,曾光明,等.马尔科夫过程在河流综合水质预报中的应用[J].环境工程,1997,15(2):41-44.
[11]张树冬,李伟光,南军,等.加权马尔可夫链预测源水水质的应用研究[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(13):111-113.
[12]秦松.基于加权的滑动平均-马尔科夫预测模型及其应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2013,24(1):185-188.
[13]He B,Che C,Ga D H.Evaluation of water quality basedon Markov process[J].Environmental Engineering,2003,21(2):60-62.
[14]牛军宜,冯平.基于Markov状态切换的水质时序自回归预测模型[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2010,40(3):657-664.
[15]Yun Yi,Zou Zhihong,Feng Wei,et al.Quantificationalanalysis on progress of river water quality in China originalresearch article[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2009,21(6):770-773.
[16]陈启明,陈华友.基于Markov链的最优化模型在长江水质预测中的应用[J].安徽工业大学学报(自然科学版),2011,28(1):78-81.
[17]程万里,李亦芳,郝伏勤,等.黄河三门峡段基于马尔科夫模型的水质预测[J].电力环境保护,2008,24(3):8-11.
[18]李娟,张维江,马轶.滑动平均-马尔可夫模型在降水预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(6):196-205.
[19]冯为,邹志红.河流水质的动态马尔柯夫评价[J].环境工程学报,2007,1(8):132-135.
[20]余秋梅,印士勇,周良伟.巢湖水环境质量现状分析[J].人民长江,2001,32(7):29-30.
目录