近60年合肥市降雨特性分析
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摘要
受城市化进度加快以及气候变化的影响,合肥市降雨特性在发生一系列的变化,根据1954~2013年合肥市气象观测站基础降雨资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析合肥市的降雨变化。结果表明,近60年来合肥市年降雨量变化较剧烈,从20世纪70年代初期开始,年降雨量呈现上升趋势,但上升趋势不明显;春季降雨呈下降趋势,夏季和冬季降雨均呈明显的上升趋势;秋季降雨也呈上升趋势,但不明显;在12个月份中,6、9、10月份降雨量变化最为剧烈,除4、5、9月份呈下降趋势以外,其他月份均呈上升趋势,其中1、2、6、8月份呈明显的上升趋势。
Affected by the acceleration of urbanization and the change of climate,the rainfall properties of Hefei are in a series of changes. According to Hefei Meteorological Observatory's basal rainfall data during 1954-2013,using Mann-Kendall tendency analysis method and MannKendall mutation test to analyze the rainfall changes in Hefei. The results indicate that during the past 60 years in Hefei,the year rainfall change is dramatic. Since the 1970 s,annual rainfall presents a rising trend,but the upward trend is not obvious; The rainfall in spring presents a downward trend,while in summer and winter,it presents obvious rising trend; It also presents a rising trend in autumn,but not obvious; Among 12 months,the rainfall in June,September and October is in the most dramatic change,except April,May and September showed a downward trend,the other months all showed a rising trend. And among them,only January,February,June and August showed an obvious rising trend.
Affected by the acceleration of urbanization and the change of climate,the rainfall properties of Hefei are in a series of changes. According to Hefei Meteorological Observatory's basal rainfall data during 1954-2013,using Mann-Kendall tendency analysis method and MannKendall mutation test to analyze the rainfall changes in Hefei. The results indicate that during the past 60 years in Hefei,the year rainfall change is dramatic. Since the 1970 s,annual rainfall presents a rising trend,but the upward trend is not obvious; The rainfall in spring presents a downward trend,while in summer and winter,it presents obvious rising trend; It also presents a rising trend in autumn,but not obvious; Among 12 months,the rainfall in June,September and October is in the most dramatic change,except April,May and September showed a downward trend,the other months all showed a rising trend. And among them,only January,February,June and August showed an obvious rising trend.
引文
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[2]王效瑞,徐敏.安徽省夏季降雨量的若干统计特征[J].安徽师范大学学报,2002,25(3):281-285.
[3]田红,李春,张士洋.近50年我国江淮流域气候变化[J].中国海洋大学学报,2005,35(4):539-544.
[4]陈晓宏,刘德地,王兆礼.降雨空间分布模式识别[J].水利学报,2006,37(6):711-716.
[5]ANDREA I P,KARMA L L.Recent rainfull and runoff variability in Central Argentina[J].Quaternary International,2006,158:127-139.
[6]KENDALL M G.A new measure of rank correlation[J].Biometrika,1938,430:81-93.
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