安徽省沿淮地区梅雨特征及其时空分布分析
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摘要
论文在探索安徽沿淮地区梅雨期(包括入梅期、出梅期和梅雨长度)、梅雨量和梅雨强度(包括梅期平均日雨量、雨量梅年比、梅期暴雨日数和梅雨强度指数)特征的基础上,着重分析了安徽沿淮地区梅雨期、梅雨量和梅雨强度的年际变化以及安徽沿淮一带11站梅期雨量和雨强地域分布的差异性。结果发现:①安徽沿淮地区多年平均梅雨期为24d(6月16日入梅,7月10日出梅),梅雨量为221.9mm,梅期日雨量为8.6mm,雨量梅年比为22.3%,暴雨日数为1.3d,梅雨强度指数为4.0;②沿淮历年梅雨特征量均呈明显的波动趋势;③沿淮梅期雨量和雨强年际变化的平均波动周期约为9年,但随年代推移具有振幅减小和频率加快的特点;④安徽沿淮自西向东各站梅期雨量和雨强均呈"升—降—升"S型分布趋势。这些发现对于沿淮各地气候研究和天气预报具有重要的参考价值。
Based on the exploration of the characteristics of the plum rains spell(include the beginning date of the plum rains period,the end date of the plum rains period and plum period length),plum rains amount and plum rains intensity(include average daily figures of rainfall,the quotient of plum rains amount to annual amount,storm rainfall days during plum rains spell and intensity index of plum rains),the annual change characteristics of the plum rains spell,the plum rains amount and the plum rains intensity and others about plum rains amount and intensity of 11 stations were emphatically analyzed.The results are:1)The average plum rains spell is 24 days(the beginning date of the plum rains period is on June 16,the end date of plum rains period is on July 10),the plum rains amount is 221.9 mm,average daily figures of rainfall is 8.6 mm,the pluviometric quotient of plum rains amount to annual amount is 22.3%,the storm rainfall day is 1.3d,the intensity index of plum rains is 4.0 in the regions along Huaihe River in Anhui Province.2) There is a trend of fluctuation in all of the items of plum rains character in the regions along Huaihe River.3) There is a nine-year fluctuation cycle in the items of plum rains character,and there are characteristics of decreasing amplitude and increasing frequency with the elapse of time.4) The plum rains amount and intensity of 11 stations from west to east along Huaihe River in Anhui Province presents an "S-shaped" trend of "up-down-up".These results are of important referential values for the climatic research and weather forecast of the regions along Huaihe River.
Based on the exploration of the characteristics of the plum rains spell(include the beginning date of the plum rains period,the end date of the plum rains period and plum period length),plum rains amount and plum rains intensity(include average daily figures of rainfall,the quotient of plum rains amount to annual amount,storm rainfall days during plum rains spell and intensity index of plum rains),the annual change characteristics of the plum rains spell,the plum rains amount and the plum rains intensity and others about plum rains amount and intensity of 11 stations were emphatically analyzed.The results are:1)The average plum rains spell is 24 days(the beginning date of the plum rains period is on June 16,the end date of plum rains period is on July 10),the plum rains amount is 221.9 mm,average daily figures of rainfall is 8.6 mm,the pluviometric quotient of plum rains amount to annual amount is 22.3%,the storm rainfall day is 1.3d,the intensity index of plum rains is 4.0 in the regions along Huaihe River in Anhui Province.2) There is a trend of fluctuation in all of the items of plum rains character in the regions along Huaihe River.3) There is a nine-year fluctuation cycle in the items of plum rains character,and there are characteristics of decreasing amplitude and increasing frequency with the elapse of time.4) The plum rains amount and intensity of 11 stations from west to east along Huaihe River in Anhui Province presents an "S-shaped" trend of "up-down-up".These results are of important referential values for the climatic research and weather forecast of the regions along Huaihe River.
引文
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[3]Richard A Johnson,Dean W Wida(陆璇译).实用多元统计分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001.388~439.[Rich-ard A Johnson,Dean WWida(Translated by LUXuan).Practical Multivariate Statistical Analysis.Beijing:Tsinghua Uni-versity Press,2001.388-439.]
[4]田红,翁渝生.淮河流域梅雨特点及其与长江流域的比较[J].气象与减灾,2005,(1):32~34.[TIAN Hong,WENGYu-sheng.The comparison of the plum rain characteristics of the Huaihe River basin and Changjiang River basin.Meteorol-ogy and Disaster Mitegation,2005,(1):32-34.]
[5]徐群.近80年长江中下游的梅雨[J].气象学报,1965,35(4):507~518.[XU Qun.The plum rain of the middle andlower Yangtze River in the last 80 years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1965,35(4):507-518.]
[6]赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[ZHAO Zhen-guo.Summer Drought and EnvironmentalField in China.Beijing:Meteorological Press,1999.]
[7]周曾奎.江淮梅雨的分析和预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.6.[ZHOUZeng-kui.The Plum Rain Analysis and Fore-casting in Yangtzi-Huaihe.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2006.6.]
[8]田心如.江苏省梅雨及其灾害影响评估分析[J].灾害学,2004,19(1).[TIANXin-ru.The plum rain and their disastereffect appraises analysis in Jiangsu Province.Calamity Sciences,2004,19(1).]
[2]刘勇,徐敏,朱红芳,等.安徽梅雨年际变化特征研究[J].气象科学,2004,24(4):488~494.[LIU Yong,XU Min,ZHUHong-fang,et al.The study of interannual changes about the plum rain period in Anhui Province.Scientia Meteoro-logical Sinica,2004,24(4):488-494.]
[3]Richard A Johnson,Dean W Wida(陆璇译).实用多元统计分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001.388~439.[Rich-ard A Johnson,Dean WWida(Translated by LUXuan).Practical Multivariate Statistical Analysis.Beijing:Tsinghua Uni-versity Press,2001.388-439.]
[4]田红,翁渝生.淮河流域梅雨特点及其与长江流域的比较[J].气象与减灾,2005,(1):32~34.[TIAN Hong,WENGYu-sheng.The comparison of the plum rain characteristics of the Huaihe River basin and Changjiang River basin.Meteorol-ogy and Disaster Mitegation,2005,(1):32-34.]
[5]徐群.近80年长江中下游的梅雨[J].气象学报,1965,35(4):507~518.[XU Qun.The plum rain of the middle andlower Yangtze River in the last 80 years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1965,35(4):507-518.]
[6]赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[ZHAO Zhen-guo.Summer Drought and EnvironmentalField in China.Beijing:Meteorological Press,1999.]
[7]周曾奎.江淮梅雨的分析和预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.6.[ZHOUZeng-kui.The Plum Rain Analysis and Fore-casting in Yangtzi-Huaihe.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2006.6.]
[8]田心如.江苏省梅雨及其灾害影响评估分析[J].灾害学,2004,19(1).[TIANXin-ru.The plum rain and their disastereffect appraises analysis in Jiangsu Province.Calamity Sciences,2004,19(1).]
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