新的梅雨强度指数(IPRI)及其时空变化特征分析——以安徽省沿淮地区为例
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摘要
【目的】探索新的简便而实用的梅雨强度指数(IPRI)的计算公式,并以安徽省沿淮地区为例分析梅雨强度的时空变化特征。【方法】在对本地区梅雨期降水基本特征进行分析的基础上,利用11个地面气象站1952-2004年的降水资料计算梅雨强度指数,并依据多年的梅雨强度指数和洪涝资料进行了相关回归分析。【结果】提出了新的简便而实用的梅雨强度指数(IPRI),并根据IPRI分析发现了安徽沿淮地区历年梅强指数呈波动上升趋势,洪涝面积与梅强指数之间存在极显著的回归关系。【结论】研究结果可用于沿淮地区洪涝灾害分析、评估和鉴定以及农业避洪。
【Objective】 In order to explore new simple and practical index of plum rains intensity (IPRI ) calculating formula, the areas along the Huaihe river in Anhui Province were used as an example, and the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of plum rains intensity were analyzed. 【Method】 Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of the plum rains spell precipitation in the regions along the Huaihe River in Anhui Province, using the eleven stations precipitation data from 1952 to 2004, and the correlation and regression analysis were made on the data of plum rains intensity index and flood. 【Result】 The spatio-temporal variations of the characteristics of plum rains were found, and the correlativity of plum rains intensity index and flood was discovered.【Conclusion】 The finding has provided a theoretical basis for the analysis, assessment and identification of flooding disasters and the development of flood-evading agriculture in the region along Huaihe River.
【Objective】 In order to explore new simple and practical index of plum rains intensity (IPRI ) calculating formula, the areas along the Huaihe river in Anhui Province were used as an example, and the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of plum rains intensity were analyzed. 【Method】 Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of the plum rains spell precipitation in the regions along the Huaihe River in Anhui Province, using the eleven stations precipitation data from 1952 to 2004, and the correlation and regression analysis were made on the data of plum rains intensity index and flood. 【Result】 The spatio-temporal variations of the characteristics of plum rains were found, and the correlativity of plum rains intensity index and flood was discovered.【Conclusion】 The finding has provided a theoretical basis for the analysis, assessment and identification of flooding disasters and the development of flood-evading agriculture in the region along Huaihe River.
引文
[1]周曾奎.江淮梅雨.北京:气象出版社,1996.Zhou Z K.Meiyu of the Jianghuai Region.Beijing:Meteorology Press,1996.(in Chinese)
[2]丁一汇,村上胜人.东亚季风.北京:气象出版社,1994.Ding Y H,村上勝の人々.East Asian Monsoon.Beijing:Meteorology Press,1994.(in Chinese)
[3]陶诗言.东亚的梅雨期与亚洲上空大气环流季节变化的关系.气象学报,1958,29(2):119-133.Tang S Y.Relationship between the meiyu period of east Asia and the seasonal chang of atmospheric circulation in Asia.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1958,29(2):119-133.(in Chinese)
[4]郁家成,黄小燕,郁阳,陈晓红,王华.安徽省沿淮地区农业洪涝灾期特征分析与避洪种植模式.中国农业大学学报,2007,12(6):24-30.Yu J C,Huang X Y,Yu Y,Chen X H,Wang H.Characteristics of agricultural flood disaster phase and the cultivating mode for avoiding flood disaster along Huaihe River of Anhui Province.Journal of China Agricultural University,2007,12(6):24-30.(in Chinese)
[5]周曾奎.划定梅雨应以环流的季节调整为主.气象,1980,6(9):14-15.Zhou Z K.Delimits the meiyu by the circulation season adjustment primarily.Meteorological Monthly,1980,6(9):14-15.(in Chinese)
[6]张玉瑾,郑耀文.梅雨季节和梅雨期.气象,1981,7(2):11.Zhang Y J,Zheng Y W.Meiyu season and meiyu period.Meteorological Monthly,1981,7(2):11.(in Chinese)
[7]林春育.关于梅雨问题讨论中的几个问题.气象,1981,7(7):12-14.Lin C Y.About the several problem of meiyu discussion.Meteorological Monthly,1981,7(7):12-14.(in Chinese)
[8]徐群.1991年江淮流域入梅期异常偏早的成因分析.气象,1992,18(9):17-20.Xu Q.Causality analysis of early meiyu over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Basins in1991.Meteorological Monthly,1992,18(9):17-20.(in Chinese)
[9]周曾奎,张欣,杨秋明.对1996年江淮梅雨的剖析.气象,1997,23(2):15-20.Zhou Z K,Zhang X,Yang Q M.An analysis on Jianghuai meiyu in1996.Meteorological Monthly,1997,23(2):15-20.(in Chinese)
[10]张欣,周曾奎,邓华军,杨秋明,刘新.2000年江淮梅雨的分析和中期预报着眼点.气象,2001,27(7):30-34.Zhang X,Zhou Z K,Deng H J,Yang Q M,Liu X.Analysis and medium-range forecast for meiyu events over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin in2000.Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(7):30-34.(in Chinese)
[11]张录军,钱永甫.长江流域汛期降水集中程度和洪涝关系研究.地球物理学报,2004,47(4):622-630.Zhang L J,Qian Y F.A study on the feature of precipitation concentration and its relation to flood-producing in the Changjiang river valley of China.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(4):622-630.(in Chinese)
[12]刘勇,徐敏,朱红芳,郑启康.安徽梅雨年际变化特征研究.气象科学,2004,24(4):488-494.Liu Y,Xu M,Zhu H F,Zheng Q K.The study of interannual changes about the meiyu period in Anhui Province.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2004,24(4):488-494.(in Chinese)
[13]赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场.北京:气象出版社,1999.Zhao Z G.Summer Drought or Flood of China and Environment Field.Beijing:Meteorology Press,1999.(in Chinese)
[14]徐群.近80年长江中下游的梅雨.气象学报,1965,35(4):507-518.Xu Q.Meiyu of the lower and middle-reaches of Changjiang River in recent80years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1965,35(4):507-518.(in Chinese)
[15]周曾奎.江淮梅雨的分析和预报.北京:气象出版社,2006.Zhou Z K.Analysis and Forecast of Meiyu in Jianghuai.Beijing:Meteorology Press,2006.(in Chinese)
[16]田心如,姜爱军,高苹,张章.江苏省梅雨及其灾害影响评价分析.灾害学,2004,19(1):40-45.Tian X R,Jiang A J,Gao P,Zhang Z.Plum rains in Jiangsu Province and the evaluation of the disaster effects.Journal of Catastrophology,2004,19(1):40-45.(in Chinese)
[17]郁家成,黄小燕,郁阳,陈晓红,王华.安徽省沿淮地区梅雨特征及其时空分布分析.自然资源学报,2008,23(4):694-704.Yu J C,Huang X Y,Yu Y,Chen X H,Wang H.Analysis of characteristics and space-time distribution of plum rains in the regions along Huaihe River in Anhui Province.Journal of Natural Resource,2008,23(4):694-704.(in Chinese)
[2]丁一汇,村上胜人.东亚季风.北京:气象出版社,1994.Ding Y H,村上勝の人々.East Asian Monsoon.Beijing:Meteorology Press,1994.(in Chinese)
[3]陶诗言.东亚的梅雨期与亚洲上空大气环流季节变化的关系.气象学报,1958,29(2):119-133.Tang S Y.Relationship between the meiyu period of east Asia and the seasonal chang of atmospheric circulation in Asia.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1958,29(2):119-133.(in Chinese)
[4]郁家成,黄小燕,郁阳,陈晓红,王华.安徽省沿淮地区农业洪涝灾期特征分析与避洪种植模式.中国农业大学学报,2007,12(6):24-30.Yu J C,Huang X Y,Yu Y,Chen X H,Wang H.Characteristics of agricultural flood disaster phase and the cultivating mode for avoiding flood disaster along Huaihe River of Anhui Province.Journal of China Agricultural University,2007,12(6):24-30.(in Chinese)
[5]周曾奎.划定梅雨应以环流的季节调整为主.气象,1980,6(9):14-15.Zhou Z K.Delimits the meiyu by the circulation season adjustment primarily.Meteorological Monthly,1980,6(9):14-15.(in Chinese)
[6]张玉瑾,郑耀文.梅雨季节和梅雨期.气象,1981,7(2):11.Zhang Y J,Zheng Y W.Meiyu season and meiyu period.Meteorological Monthly,1981,7(2):11.(in Chinese)
[7]林春育.关于梅雨问题讨论中的几个问题.气象,1981,7(7):12-14.Lin C Y.About the several problem of meiyu discussion.Meteorological Monthly,1981,7(7):12-14.(in Chinese)
[8]徐群.1991年江淮流域入梅期异常偏早的成因分析.气象,1992,18(9):17-20.Xu Q.Causality analysis of early meiyu over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Basins in1991.Meteorological Monthly,1992,18(9):17-20.(in Chinese)
[9]周曾奎,张欣,杨秋明.对1996年江淮梅雨的剖析.气象,1997,23(2):15-20.Zhou Z K,Zhang X,Yang Q M.An analysis on Jianghuai meiyu in1996.Meteorological Monthly,1997,23(2):15-20.(in Chinese)
[10]张欣,周曾奎,邓华军,杨秋明,刘新.2000年江淮梅雨的分析和中期预报着眼点.气象,2001,27(7):30-34.Zhang X,Zhou Z K,Deng H J,Yang Q M,Liu X.Analysis and medium-range forecast for meiyu events over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin in2000.Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(7):30-34.(in Chinese)
[11]张录军,钱永甫.长江流域汛期降水集中程度和洪涝关系研究.地球物理学报,2004,47(4):622-630.Zhang L J,Qian Y F.A study on the feature of precipitation concentration and its relation to flood-producing in the Changjiang river valley of China.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(4):622-630.(in Chinese)
[12]刘勇,徐敏,朱红芳,郑启康.安徽梅雨年际变化特征研究.气象科学,2004,24(4):488-494.Liu Y,Xu M,Zhu H F,Zheng Q K.The study of interannual changes about the meiyu period in Anhui Province.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2004,24(4):488-494.(in Chinese)
[13]赵振国.中国夏季旱涝及环境场.北京:气象出版社,1999.Zhao Z G.Summer Drought or Flood of China and Environment Field.Beijing:Meteorology Press,1999.(in Chinese)
[14]徐群.近80年长江中下游的梅雨.气象学报,1965,35(4):507-518.Xu Q.Meiyu of the lower and middle-reaches of Changjiang River in recent80years.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1965,35(4):507-518.(in Chinese)
[15]周曾奎.江淮梅雨的分析和预报.北京:气象出版社,2006.Zhou Z K.Analysis and Forecast of Meiyu in Jianghuai.Beijing:Meteorology Press,2006.(in Chinese)
[16]田心如,姜爱军,高苹,张章.江苏省梅雨及其灾害影响评价分析.灾害学,2004,19(1):40-45.Tian X R,Jiang A J,Gao P,Zhang Z.Plum rains in Jiangsu Province and the evaluation of the disaster effects.Journal of Catastrophology,2004,19(1):40-45.(in Chinese)
[17]郁家成,黄小燕,郁阳,陈晓红,王华.安徽省沿淮地区梅雨特征及其时空分布分析.自然资源学报,2008,23(4):694-704.Yu J C,Huang X Y,Yu Y,Chen X H,Wang H.Analysis of characteristics and space-time distribution of plum rains in the regions along Huaihe River in Anhui Province.Journal of Natural Resource,2008,23(4):694-704.(in Chinese)
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