基于云模型和熵权法的巢湖流域防洪减灾能力评估
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摘要
防洪减灾能力评估是洪涝灾害管理急需解决的重大问题之一。从防洪除涝能力、监测预警能力、抢险救灾能力及灾害管理能力4个方面来构建指标体系,建立基于云模型和熵权法的巢湖流域防洪减灾能力评估模型,对整个流域以及流域内各县市的防洪减灾能力进行评估,并与通过组合赋权法及最优分割法得到的结果进行验证对比。以期为防洪减灾能力评估提供新的思路,对巢湖流域的防洪减灾能力建设提供科学依据。研究结果表明:巢湖流域整体防洪减灾能力属于中等偏上水平,但流域内部差异明显;其中合肥市辖区、和县的防洪减灾能力属于高水平;巢湖市、含山县处于中等水平;肥西县和庐江县位于较低水平;肥东县、无为县、舒城县的防洪减灾能力则最低。
Capacity evaluation on flood prevention and disaster reduction is one of the major problems of flood disaster management. Considering from four capacities as of flood disaster prevention and waterlogging control,monitoring and early warning,emergency rescue and disaster relief and disaster management,the index system is constructed to establish the evaluation model based on cloud model and entropy weight method to evaluate the capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction of the whole basin and the counties and cities in Chaohu basin. And by contrasted those obtained by combination weighting method and the optimal segmentation method,it is expected to provide new ideas for capacity evaluation of flood prevention and disaster reduction and scientific basis for capacity building of flood prevention and disaster reduction in Chaohu Basin. The results show that: Chaohu basin for flood disaster prevention and reduction capacity belongs to middle level and above,but internal differences of the basin are significant; the flood disaster prevention and reduction ability of Hefei City area belongs to high level; Chaohu City,Hanshan County are in the middle level; Feixi county and Lujiang county are located in the lower level; the Capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction in Feidong County,Wuwei County,Shucheng county are the lowest.
Capacity evaluation on flood prevention and disaster reduction is one of the major problems of flood disaster management. Considering from four capacities as of flood disaster prevention and waterlogging control,monitoring and early warning,emergency rescue and disaster relief and disaster management,the index system is constructed to establish the evaluation model based on cloud model and entropy weight method to evaluate the capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction of the whole basin and the counties and cities in Chaohu basin. And by contrasted those obtained by combination weighting method and the optimal segmentation method,it is expected to provide new ideas for capacity evaluation of flood prevention and disaster reduction and scientific basis for capacity building of flood prevention and disaster reduction in Chaohu Basin. The results show that: Chaohu basin for flood disaster prevention and reduction capacity belongs to middle level and above,but internal differences of the basin are significant; the flood disaster prevention and reduction ability of Hefei City area belongs to high level; Chaohu City,Hanshan County are in the middle level; Feixi county and Lujiang county are located in the lower level; the Capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction in Feidong County,Wuwei County,Shucheng county are the lowest.
引文
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[19]田玉刚,杜渊会,覃东华,等.基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(8):159-163.
[2]张会,张继权,韩俊山.基于GIS技术的洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究—以辽河中下游地区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):141-146.
[3]张婧,郝立生,许晓光.基于GIS技术的河北省洪涝灾害风险区划与分析[J].灾害学,2009,24(2):51-56.
[4]张京红,田光辉,蔡大鑫,等.基于GIS技术的海南岛暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].热带作物学报,2010,31(6):1014-1019.
[5]黄大鹏,郑伟,张人禾,等.安徽淮河流域洪涝灾害防灾减灾能力评估[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):524-530.
[6]胡俊锋,杨佩国,吕爱锋,等.基于ISM的区域综合减灾能力评价指标体系研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):76-80.
[7]安徽省统计局.安徽省统计年鉴-2013[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2013.
[8]李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.
[9]王新洲,史文中,王树良.模糊空间信息处理[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2003.
[10]胡石元,李德仁,刘耀林,等.基于云模型和关联度分析法的土地评价因素权重挖掘[J].武汉大学学报,2006,31(5):432-427.
[11]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(8):28-34.
[12]刘常昱,李德毅,杜鹢,等.正态云模型的统计分析[J].信息与控制,2005,34(2):236-239.
[13]王明舒,朱明.利用云模型评价开发区的土地集约利用状况[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(10):247-252.
[14]龚艳冰.基于正态云模型和熵权的河西走廊城市化生态风险综合评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(5):170-174.
[15]张杨,严金明,江平,等.基于正态云模型的湖北省土地资源生态安全评价[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(22):253-258.
[16]丁昊,王栋.基于云模型的水体富营养化程度评价方法[J].环境科学报,2013,33(1):252-257.
[17]孙仲益,张继全,王春乙,等.基于网格GIS的安徽省旱涝组合风险区划[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):75-78.
[18]袁媛,王心源,李翔,等.巢湖流域旱涝时空特征分析[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):97-99.
[19]田玉刚,杜渊会,覃东华,等.基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(8):159-163.
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