安徽省冰雹气候特征及其致灾因子危险性区划
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摘要
利用安徽省82个气象台站观测资料,《中国气象灾害大典(1951-2005年)》和《安徽省气象灾害年鉴(2006-2009年)》的记录资料,对安徽省冰雹的气候特征进行研究,并对致灾因子进行危险性区划,以期为冰雹灾害的防御和评估提供科学依据。结果表明,安徽省冰雹具有一定的年代际变化规律,且降雹日数与年平均最低气温呈显著的负相关(P<0.05);3-8月冰雹出现频率较高,其中6月最高,而秋冬季出现较少;冰雹大部发生在一日内午后至日落之前;空间分布上冰雹主要发生在淮北东北、大别山南部以及黄山部分地区。利用冰雹的直径、持续时间,以及发生时的阵风等级3个致灾因子定义了冰雹强度指数,并利用百分位法对冰雹强度进行分级,为冰雹强度的定量化评估提供可能。致灾因子危险性区划结果表明,极高危险区集中在淮北东部地区,低危险区主要在淮河以南的大部地区。利用历史灾情对区划结果的初步验证表明,风险区划结果具有一定的合理性。
Based on the hail-day records from 82 weather stations in Anhui province,Chinese Meteorological Disaster Dictionary(1951 to 2005) and the Yearbook of Meteorological Disaster in Anhui Province(2006 to 2009),authors discussed the climatic character and risk zoning of hail disaster in Anhui province.The results showed that the hail days exhibited obvious interdecadal variability,and it had a significant negative correlation with annual mean minimum temperature.The hails usually occurred during March to August,most frequently in June but less in autumn and winter,and it took place from afternoon to sunset.The spatial distribution showed that the hail occurred more in northeast of Anhui province,south of Dabie mountain and Huangshan mountain,but less in Jianghuai region.The index of hail intensity was defined by three factors,the diameter,duration and gust wind,and the percentile method was used to grade the intensity of the hail disaster.This work provided a possibility for quantitative assessment of the intensity of hail disaster.The results of hail disaster risk zoning in Anhui province showed that high risk zones were concentrated in northeast of Anhui province,and low risk zones were mainly in the north of the Dabie mountain and some areas of Jianghuai region.Finally,verified by history disaster,it showed that the results of risk of zoning had a certain rationality and feasibility.
Based on the hail-day records from 82 weather stations in Anhui province,Chinese Meteorological Disaster Dictionary(1951 to 2005) and the Yearbook of Meteorological Disaster in Anhui Province(2006 to 2009),authors discussed the climatic character and risk zoning of hail disaster in Anhui province.The results showed that the hail days exhibited obvious interdecadal variability,and it had a significant negative correlation with annual mean minimum temperature.The hails usually occurred during March to August,most frequently in June but less in autumn and winter,and it took place from afternoon to sunset.The spatial distribution showed that the hail occurred more in northeast of Anhui province,south of Dabie mountain and Huangshan mountain,but less in Jianghuai region.The index of hail intensity was defined by three factors,the diameter,duration and gust wind,and the percentile method was used to grade the intensity of the hail disaster.This work provided a possibility for quantitative assessment of the intensity of hail disaster.The results of hail disaster risk zoning in Anhui province showed that high risk zones were concentrated in northeast of Anhui province,and low risk zones were mainly in the north of the Dabie mountain and some areas of Jianghuai region.Finally,verified by history disaster,it showed that the results of risk of zoning had a certain rationality and feasibility.
引文
[1]温克刚,翟武全.中国气象灾害大典.安徽卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:220,247.
[2]翟武全.中国气象灾害大典.安徽卷(2001-2005)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:53,64.
[3]李德俊,唐仁茂,熊守权,等.强冰雹和短时强降水天气雷达特征及邻近预警[J].气象,2011,37(4):474-480.
[4]顾欣,张艳梅.黔东南冰雹集中度与集中期的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):627-632.
[5]符琳,李维京,张培群,等.近50年我国冰雹年代际变化及北方冰雹趋势的成因分析[J].气象,2011,37(6):669-676.
[6]刘晓梅,李晶,戴萍,等.1951-2008年辽宁冰雹的时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(5):24-26.
[7]郭玉凤,卢淑贤,程惠艳,等.巴彦淖尔市40年降雹气候特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3):453-457.
[8]Changnon S A,Changnon D.Long-term fluctuations in hailincidences in the United States[J].Climate,2000,13(3):658-664.
[9]张核真,假拉.西藏冰雹的时空分布特征及危险性区划[J].气象科技,2007,35(1):53-56.
[10]王瑾,刘黎平.基于GIS的贵州省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(5):627-634.
[11]翟志宏,姜会飞,叶彩华,等.基于概率分布模型的北京地区冰雹灾害风险区划[J].中国农业大学学报,2008,13(6):49-53.
[12]罗培.GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型:以重庆地区冰雹灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):38-44.
[13]李蒙,朱勇,吉文娟.基于GIS的云南烟区冰雹灾害风险评价[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):129-133.
[14]杨益,陈贞宏,王潇宇,等.基于GIS和AHP的潍坊市冰雹灾害风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(增):203-207.
[15]中国气象局.地面观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[16]安徽省气象局.安徽省气象灾害年鉴(2009)[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
[2]翟武全.中国气象灾害大典.安徽卷(2001-2005)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:53,64.
[3]李德俊,唐仁茂,熊守权,等.强冰雹和短时强降水天气雷达特征及邻近预警[J].气象,2011,37(4):474-480.
[4]顾欣,张艳梅.黔东南冰雹集中度与集中期的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):627-632.
[5]符琳,李维京,张培群,等.近50年我国冰雹年代际变化及北方冰雹趋势的成因分析[J].气象,2011,37(6):669-676.
[6]刘晓梅,李晶,戴萍,等.1951-2008年辽宁冰雹的时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(5):24-26.
[7]郭玉凤,卢淑贤,程惠艳,等.巴彦淖尔市40年降雹气候特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(3):453-457.
[8]Changnon S A,Changnon D.Long-term fluctuations in hailincidences in the United States[J].Climate,2000,13(3):658-664.
[9]张核真,假拉.西藏冰雹的时空分布特征及危险性区划[J].气象科技,2007,35(1):53-56.
[10]王瑾,刘黎平.基于GIS的贵州省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(5):627-634.
[11]翟志宏,姜会飞,叶彩华,等.基于概率分布模型的北京地区冰雹灾害风险区划[J].中国农业大学学报,2008,13(6):49-53.
[12]罗培.GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型:以重庆地区冰雹灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):38-44.
[13]李蒙,朱勇,吉文娟.基于GIS的云南烟区冰雹灾害风险评价[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):129-133.
[14]杨益,陈贞宏,王潇宇,等.基于GIS和AHP的潍坊市冰雹灾害风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(增):203-207.
[15]中国气象局.地面观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[16]安徽省气象局.安徽省气象灾害年鉴(2009)[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
目录