基于EKC模型的安徽省环境质量好转条件下城镇化规模测算
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摘要
探索环境质量改善条件下城镇化规模,对指导管理层制定城镇化与生态环境保护深度协调融合的政策具有重要启示意义。选取人均工业废水排放等11个指标构建环境污染评价体系,采用熵值赋权法,对安徽省环境污染综合指数进行测算;运用LMDI分解模型,对城镇化进程引致的污染指数进行考察;基于EKC建模机理,借助Excel软件,通过作散点图,添加趋势线,构造了城镇化进程与其引致污染的三次曲线,采用高数求导判别拐点分析方法,揭示了环境质量好转条件下城镇化规模。结果表明:安徽省城镇化进程引致的污染指数由2001年的0.056 1跃升至2013年的0.805 8,呈持续增长态势;城镇化进程引致的污染指数与城镇化规模间契合呈倒N型曲线关系;城镇化规模达3 106.26万人为安徽省环境质量开始好转的规模临界值,现阶段,城镇化进程引致的污染指数处于倒N型中部上升通道。为促进生态安徽与新型城镇化建设发展,从优化产业结构、实施创新驱动、依法严格环境管控等方面提出建议。
To explore the urbanization size under the condition of environment quality improvement is of great enlightenment significance to guide the management for formulating the deep coordinated fusion policies between urbanization and ecological environment protection. A total of 11 indices such as percapita industrial waste discharge are selected to construct the environmental pollution evaluation system. The entropy weighting method is used to calculate environmental pollution comprehensive index in Anhui Province. LMDI decomposition model is adopted to investigate the pollution index induced by urbanization. Based on EKC modeling mechanism with the aid of Excel software,scatterplot with trend line is applied to construct the cubic curve of urbanization process and its caused pollution. Advanced mathematics for derivation is used to judge the inflection point analysis method,so as to reveal the urbanization size under the condition of environment quality improvement. The results show that: The pollution index caused by urbanization in Anhui Province jumped from 0. 056 1 in 2001 to 0. 805 8 in2013,showing acontinuous growth trend; The relation between the pollution index caused by urbanization and urbanization size is consistent with the inverted-N curve; The size critical value of environmental quality started to improve in Anhui Province is 31. 062 6 million. In the present stage,the pollution index caused by urbanization enters the inverted-N central rising channel. Based on research results,To promote the development of eco-Anhui and new urbanization,policy suggestions are put forward advantageous to earlier inflection point from the optimization of industrial structure,implementation of innovation drive,strict environmental control in line with laws and other aspects.
To explore the urbanization size under the condition of environment quality improvement is of great enlightenment significance to guide the management for formulating the deep coordinated fusion policies between urbanization and ecological environment protection. A total of 11 indices such as percapita industrial waste discharge are selected to construct the environmental pollution evaluation system. The entropy weighting method is used to calculate environmental pollution comprehensive index in Anhui Province. LMDI decomposition model is adopted to investigate the pollution index induced by urbanization. Based on EKC modeling mechanism with the aid of Excel software,scatterplot with trend line is applied to construct the cubic curve of urbanization process and its caused pollution. Advanced mathematics for derivation is used to judge the inflection point analysis method,so as to reveal the urbanization size under the condition of environment quality improvement. The results show that: The pollution index caused by urbanization in Anhui Province jumped from 0. 056 1 in 2001 to 0. 805 8 in2013,showing acontinuous growth trend; The relation between the pollution index caused by urbanization and urbanization size is consistent with the inverted-N curve; The size critical value of environmental quality started to improve in Anhui Province is 31. 062 6 million. In the present stage,the pollution index caused by urbanization enters the inverted-N central rising channel. Based on research results,To promote the development of eco-Anhui and new urbanization,policy suggestions are put forward advantageous to earlier inflection point from the optimization of industrial structure,implementation of innovation drive,strict environmental control in line with laws and other aspects.
引文
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[24]李斌,曹万林.经济社会发展与环境污染关系的库兹涅茨曲线分析[J].财经问题研究,2014(8):100-106.
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[27]杨玉珍.快速城镇化地区生态-环境-经济耦合协同发展研究综述[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(3):541-546.
[28]李富强,王东霞.关于三次函数及其曲线性质的讨论[J].高等数学研究,2004,7(5):27-28.
[29]尹合伶.创新安徽经济发展方式研究[J].华东经济管理,2013,27(5):19-23.
[2]陆大道,陈明星.关于“国家新型城镇化规划(2014~2020)”编制大背景的几点认识[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):179-185.
[3]蒋洪强,张静,王金南,等.中国快速城镇化的边际环境污染效应变化实证分析[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):293-297.
[4]张乐勤,张勇.城镇化演进边际污染效应及其库兹涅茨曲线探析:基于安徽省的实证[J].世界科技研究与发展,2015,37(1):33-38.
[5]姚士谋,陆大道,陈振光,等.顺应我国国情条件的城镇化问题的严峻思考[J].经济地理,2012,32(5):1-6.
[6]罗丽英,魏真兰.城镇化对生态环境的影响路径及其效应分析[J].工业技术经济,2015(6):59-66.
[7]张宗益,伍焓熙.新型城镇化对产业结构升级的影响效应分析[J].工业技术经济,2015(5):101-109.
[8]荣宏庆.论我国新型城镇化建设与生态环境保护[J].现代经济探讨,2013(8):5-9.
[9]刘耀彬.资源环境约束下的适宜城镇化进程测度理论与实证研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2011.
[10]管祥友.城镇化与生态环境质量之间的关系研究——基于我国城镇化进程的实证研究[D/OL].武汉:华中师范大,2013:45[2015-10-31]http://www.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?dbcode=CMFD&Query ID=18&CurRec=1&dbname=CMFD201401.
[11]安徽省统计局.安徽统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2014.
[12]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[13]屈小娥.中国工业行业环境污染综合评价——基于Topsis的实证分析[J]产业经济研究,2014(4):51-59,102.
[14]国家统计局能源统计司.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2014.
[15]吴玉鸣,田斌.省域环境库兹涅茨曲线的扩展及其决定因素——空间计量经济学模型实证[J].地理研究,2012,31(4):627-640.
[16]屈小娥.1990~2009年中国省际环境污染综合评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(5):158-163.
[17]李水平,张丹.湖南省城镇化与环境污染的库兹涅茨曲线[J].系统工程,2014,32(1):152-158.
[18]KAYA Y.Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth:Interpretation of proposed scenarios[R].Paris:IPCC Response Strategies Working Group Memorandum1989,IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Working Group,1990.
[19]ANG B W,ZHANG F Q,CHOI K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[20]张乐勤.基于组合模型的城镇化演进对耕地影响极限测算[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(24):272-279.
[21]张乐勤.基于组合模型的安徽省城镇化演进对碳排放影响极限研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(1)152-162.
[22]GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement[R].Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1991.
[23]王飞成,郭其友.经济增长对环境污染的影响及区域性差异——基于省际动态面板数据模型的研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2014,36(4):14-26.
[24]李斌,曹万林.经济社会发展与环境污染关系的库兹涅茨曲线分析[J].财经问题研究,2014(8):100-106.
[25]李瑛珊.广东环境质量对经济增长的影响实证研究——基于库兹涅茨曲线[J].科技管理研究,2015(2):237-241.
[26]杨晓军,陈浩.中国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的影响效应:基于省级面板数据的经验分析[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2013,13(1):32-37.
[27]杨玉珍.快速城镇化地区生态-环境-经济耦合协同发展研究综述[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(3):541-546.
[28]李富强,王东霞.关于三次函数及其曲线性质的讨论[J].高等数学研究,2004,7(5):27-28.
[29]尹合伶.创新安徽经济发展方式研究[J].华东经济管理,2013,27(5):19-23.
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