应急管理关键因素的混合型识别方法研究
|
摘要
如何细致识别出自然灾害下应急管理的关键因素,对于开展科学有效的应急管理具有重要的现实意义。本文提出一种新的应急管理关键因素的混合型识别方法,该方法通过构建三角模糊数为基本语言集、三角区间模糊数为补充语言集的评价尺度集,建立混合型初始直接关联矩阵并将之转化为区间数直接关联矩阵,进而实现中心度和原因度的综合排序,从而据此有效的识别出应急管理的关键因素,为制订高效科学的应急管理政策提供良好的方法论支持。同时,通过一个算例表明了本方法具有良好的识别效果。本混合型识别方法突破了已有研究单一性模糊评价尺度集的局限性,具有方法论创新价值,并在关键因素识别领域具有较好的应用普适性。
How to precisely identify the key factors of natural disaster emergency management,which has important practical significance for carrying out scientific emergency management. This paper presents a new and hybrid identifying method of key factors for emergency management. By constructing triangular fuzzy number as the basic language set and triangular-interval fuzzy number as added language set,the method establishes a hybrid direct relation matrix,and which transforms into the interval number direct relation matrix. And then comprehensive sort of prominence and the relation obtained can effectively identify key factors of emergency management. It provides a good methodology support for establishing efficient and science of emergency management policy. At the same time,an example is illustrated and the results show that this method can get good recognition effect. This hybrid identification method breaks through limitations of the single fuzzy evaluation scale research.It has methodological innovation value and has a useful application in the field of identifying the key factors.
How to precisely identify the key factors of natural disaster emergency management,which has important practical significance for carrying out scientific emergency management. This paper presents a new and hybrid identifying method of key factors for emergency management. By constructing triangular fuzzy number as the basic language set and triangular-interval fuzzy number as added language set,the method establishes a hybrid direct relation matrix,and which transforms into the interval number direct relation matrix. And then comprehensive sort of prominence and the relation obtained can effectively identify key factors of emergency management. It provides a good methodology support for establishing efficient and science of emergency management policy. At the same time,an example is illustrated and the results show that this method can get good recognition effect. This hybrid identification method breaks through limitations of the single fuzzy evaluation scale research.It has methodological innovation value and has a useful application in the field of identifying the key factors.
引文
[1] Drabek T E,Hoetmer G J. Emergency management:principles and practice for local government[M]. International city management association,Washington,DC.1991.
[2] Sheu J B. An emergency logistics distribution approach for quick response to urgent relief demand in disasters[J]. Transport. Res. Part E:logist. Transport. Rev,2007,43(6):687-709.
[3]李春娟,宋之杰.基于知识协同的突发事件应急管理对策研究[J].情报杂志,2011,05:10-13+5.
[4]温佩,郭丽芳,马家齐.城市自然灾害应急管理中社会参与的评价研究———以太原市为例[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,01:80-84.
[5] Wu W W,lee Y T,Tzeng G H. Simplifying the manager competency model by using the rough set approach[C].Rough Sets,Fuzzy Sets,Data Mining and Granular Computing. Springer, heidelberg Press, Berlin, 2005.484-495.
[6] Ashtiani B,haghighirad F,Makui A,Montazer G A.Extension of fuzzy TOPSIS method based on interval-valued fuzzy sets[J]. Applied Soft Computing,2009(9):457-461.
[7] Kovacs G,Karen M S. Humanitarian logistics in disaster relief operations[J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 2007(37):99-114.
[8] Oloruntoba R. An analysis of the cyclone larry emergency relief chain:some key success factors[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2009(10):1-17.
[9] Wei Wen Wu, Yu Ting Lee. Developing global managers’ competencies using the fuzzy DEMATEL method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2007(32):499-507.
[10] Fontela E,Gabus A. The DEMATEL observer[C].Battelle Geneva Research Centre,Geneva,1976.
[11] Baykˇasoglu A,Kaplˇanoglu V,Durmus_Oˇglu Z D,S_Ahin C. Integrating fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy hierarchical TOPSIS methods for truck selection[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2013,40(3):899-907.
[12]张英芝,吴茂坤,申桂香,孙曙光,宋琪.基于DEMATEl/ISM的组合机床故障相关性分析[J].工业工程,2014,03:92-96+127.
[13] Sachin Patil K,Ravi Kant. A hybrid approach based on fuzzy DEMATEL and FMCDM to predict success of knowledge management adoption in supply chain[J].Applied Soft Computing,2014(18):126-135.
[14] Opricovic S,Tzeng G H. Defuzzification within a multicriteria decision model[J]. Fuzziness and KnowledgeBase System,2003,11(5):635-652.
[15] Quan Zhou,Weilai huang. Ying zhang identifying critical success factors in emergency management using a fuzzy DEMATEL method[J]. Safety Science,2011(49):243-252.
[16] Ya li,Yong hu,Xiaoge Zhang,Yong Deng,Sankaran Mahadevan. An evidential DEMATEL method to identify critical success factors in emergency management[J]. Applied Soft Computing,2014(22):504-510.
[17] Xinyi Zhou,Yangqiuyan Shi,Xinyang Deng,Yong Deng. D-DEMATEL:a new method to identify critical success factors in emergency management[J]. Safety Science. 2017(91):93-104.
[18] Zhang S F,Liu S Y,Zhai R H. An extended GRA method for MCDM with interval-valued triangular fuzzy assessments and unknown weights[J]. Computers and Industrial Engineering,2011(61):1336-1341.
[19] Wei Wen Wu, Yu Ting Lee. Developing global managers’ competencies using the fuzzy DEMATEL method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2007(32):499-507.
[20]卫贵武.混合型多属性决策的灰色关联分析法[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,07:30-34.
[21]要瑞璞,沈惠璋.基于区间值三角模糊数的多属性群决策方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,20:197-203.
[22] Christer Carlsson,Robert Full. On possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2001(122):315-326.
[23]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[24] Ye F,Li Y. An extended TOPSIS model based on the possibility theory under fuzzy environment[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems,2014(67):263-269.
[2] Sheu J B. An emergency logistics distribution approach for quick response to urgent relief demand in disasters[J]. Transport. Res. Part E:logist. Transport. Rev,2007,43(6):687-709.
[3]李春娟,宋之杰.基于知识协同的突发事件应急管理对策研究[J].情报杂志,2011,05:10-13+5.
[4]温佩,郭丽芳,马家齐.城市自然灾害应急管理中社会参与的评价研究———以太原市为例[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,01:80-84.
[5] Wu W W,lee Y T,Tzeng G H. Simplifying the manager competency model by using the rough set approach[C].Rough Sets,Fuzzy Sets,Data Mining and Granular Computing. Springer, heidelberg Press, Berlin, 2005.484-495.
[6] Ashtiani B,haghighirad F,Makui A,Montazer G A.Extension of fuzzy TOPSIS method based on interval-valued fuzzy sets[J]. Applied Soft Computing,2009(9):457-461.
[7] Kovacs G,Karen M S. Humanitarian logistics in disaster relief operations[J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 2007(37):99-114.
[8] Oloruntoba R. An analysis of the cyclone larry emergency relief chain:some key success factors[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2009(10):1-17.
[9] Wei Wen Wu, Yu Ting Lee. Developing global managers’ competencies using the fuzzy DEMATEL method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2007(32):499-507.
[10] Fontela E,Gabus A. The DEMATEL observer[C].Battelle Geneva Research Centre,Geneva,1976.
[11] Baykˇasoglu A,Kaplˇanoglu V,Durmus_Oˇglu Z D,S_Ahin C. Integrating fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy hierarchical TOPSIS methods for truck selection[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2013,40(3):899-907.
[12]张英芝,吴茂坤,申桂香,孙曙光,宋琪.基于DEMATEl/ISM的组合机床故障相关性分析[J].工业工程,2014,03:92-96+127.
[13] Sachin Patil K,Ravi Kant. A hybrid approach based on fuzzy DEMATEL and FMCDM to predict success of knowledge management adoption in supply chain[J].Applied Soft Computing,2014(18):126-135.
[14] Opricovic S,Tzeng G H. Defuzzification within a multicriteria decision model[J]. Fuzziness and KnowledgeBase System,2003,11(5):635-652.
[15] Quan Zhou,Weilai huang. Ying zhang identifying critical success factors in emergency management using a fuzzy DEMATEL method[J]. Safety Science,2011(49):243-252.
[16] Ya li,Yong hu,Xiaoge Zhang,Yong Deng,Sankaran Mahadevan. An evidential DEMATEL method to identify critical success factors in emergency management[J]. Applied Soft Computing,2014(22):504-510.
[17] Xinyi Zhou,Yangqiuyan Shi,Xinyang Deng,Yong Deng. D-DEMATEL:a new method to identify critical success factors in emergency management[J]. Safety Science. 2017(91):93-104.
[18] Zhang S F,Liu S Y,Zhai R H. An extended GRA method for MCDM with interval-valued triangular fuzzy assessments and unknown weights[J]. Computers and Industrial Engineering,2011(61):1336-1341.
[19] Wei Wen Wu, Yu Ting Lee. Developing global managers’ competencies using the fuzzy DEMATEL method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2007(32):499-507.
[20]卫贵武.混合型多属性决策的灰色关联分析法[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,07:30-34.
[21]要瑞璞,沈惠璋.基于区间值三角模糊数的多属性群决策方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,20:197-203.
[22] Christer Carlsson,Robert Full. On possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2001(122):315-326.
[23]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
[24] Ye F,Li Y. An extended TOPSIS model based on the possibility theory under fuzzy environment[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems,2014(67):263-269.