基于“钻石模型”的中国数字贸易国际竞争力实证研究
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摘要
基于"熵值法"构建国际竞争力综合评价体系对比2008-2017年全球经济总量排名前十的国家数字贸易国际竞争力水平,得出中国数字贸易国际竞争力呈现快速增长态势,但与美德英三国相比仍然存在一定差距。在此基础上,以迈克尔·波特的"钻石模型"为理论依据,选择了10个影响数字贸易竞争力的因素,构建了中国数字贸易国际竞争力影响因素计量评价模型,并通过逐步回归最终选定6个指标进行实证分析。结果表明,技术水平、数字贸易产业开放度、第二产业劳动生产率、第三产业劳动生产率、政府政策对数字贸易国际竞争力有明显的正向效应,由于人才体系不匹配导致人力资本对数字贸易国际竞争力存在明显的负向效应。因此,应通过加强顶层战略设计、重视技术创新能力建设、进一步扩大对外开放、推动关联性产业发展以及加大数字领域人才培养力度,推动数字贸易发展壮大。
A comprehensive evaluation system of international competitiveness based on the "entropy method" is constructed. Comparing the international competitiveness level of the top ten countries in the global economic aggregate from 2008 to 2017, it is concluded that the international competitiveness of China's digital trade presents a rapid growth trend, but there is still a certain gap between China, the United States, Germany and the UK. On this basis, based on Michael Porter's "diamond model" as the theoretical basis, 10 factors affecting the digital trade competitiveness were selected to construct the measurement and evaluation model of the factors affecting the international competitiveness of China's digital trade, and 6 indicators were finally selected for empirical analysis through stepwise regression. The results show that technological level, openness of digital trade industry, labor productivity of the secondary industry, labor productivity of the tertiary industry and government policies have obvious positive effects on the international competitiveness of digital trade.Due to the mismatch of talent system, human capital has a negative effect on the international competitiveness of digital trade. Therefore, the development and growth of digital trade should be promoted by strengthening top-level strategic design, attaching importance to the construction of technological innovation capacity, further expanding the opening up, promoting the development of related industries and strengthening the training of digital talents.
A comprehensive evaluation system of international competitiveness based on the "entropy method" is constructed. Comparing the international competitiveness level of the top ten countries in the global economic aggregate from 2008 to 2017, it is concluded that the international competitiveness of China's digital trade presents a rapid growth trend, but there is still a certain gap between China, the United States, Germany and the UK. On this basis, based on Michael Porter's "diamond model" as the theoretical basis, 10 factors affecting the digital trade competitiveness were selected to construct the measurement and evaluation model of the factors affecting the international competitiveness of China's digital trade, and 6 indicators were finally selected for empirical analysis through stepwise regression. The results show that technological level, openness of digital trade industry, labor productivity of the secondary industry, labor productivity of the tertiary industry and government policies have obvious positive effects on the international competitiveness of digital trade.Due to the mismatch of talent system, human capital has a negative effect on the international competitiveness of digital trade. Therefore, the development and growth of digital trade should be promoted by strengthening top-level strategic design, attaching importance to the construction of technological innovation capacity, further expanding the opening up, promoting the development of related industries and strengthening the training of digital talents.
引文
(1)United States International Trade Commission: Digital trade in the U.S.and global economies,part1,USITC Publication,2013,p.27.
(2)United States International Trade Commission: Digital trade in the U.S.and global economies,part2, USITC Publication,2014,p.29-31.
(3)United States International Trade Commission: Global Digital Trade 1: Market Opportunities and Key For-eign Trade Restrictions, USITC Publication,2017,p.33.
(4)Weber R H,“Digital trade in WTO-law-taking stock and looking ahead”, Asian Journal of WTO and Int-ernational Health Law and Policy, No.51,2010,pp.10.
(5)浙江大学“大数据+跨境电子商务”创新团队:《2018世界与中国数字贸易发展蓝皮书》,https://new.qq.com/omn/20180926/20180926B071J2.html,2018年9月26日。
(6)刘斌、王乃嘉、屠新泉:《贸易便利化是否提高了出口中的返回增加值》,《世界经济》2018年第8期。
(7)中国信息通信研究院:《中国数字经济发展与就业白皮书》,http://www.022net.com/2018/5-10/474429202652101.html,2018年5月10日。
(8)中国信息化百人会:《2017中国数字经济发展报告》,http://wemedia.ifeng.com/54222100/wemedia.shtml,2018年3月20日。
(9)Michael E.Porter:On Competition,CITIC Press,2003,pp.173-195.
(10)Stepwise:逐步回归法,根据设定的标准在计算过程中逐步加入有显著意义的变量和剔除无显著意义的变量,直到所建立的方程式中不再有可加入和可剔除的变量为止。
(11)夏杰长:《数字贸易的缘起、国际经验与发展策略》,《北京工商大学学报( 社会科学版)》2018年第5期。
(12)李忠民、周维颖:《美国数字贸易发展态势及我国的对策思考》,《全球化》2014年第11期。
(13)肖宇、夏杰长:《我国数字文化产业发展现状、问题与国际比较研究》,《全球化》2018年第8期。
(2)United States International Trade Commission: Digital trade in the U.S.and global economies,part2, USITC Publication,2014,p.29-31.
(3)United States International Trade Commission: Global Digital Trade 1: Market Opportunities and Key For-eign Trade Restrictions, USITC Publication,2017,p.33.
(4)Weber R H,“Digital trade in WTO-law-taking stock and looking ahead”, Asian Journal of WTO and Int-ernational Health Law and Policy, No.51,2010,pp.10.
(5)浙江大学“大数据+跨境电子商务”创新团队:《2018世界与中国数字贸易发展蓝皮书》,https://new.qq.com/omn/20180926/20180926B071J2.html,2018年9月26日。
(6)刘斌、王乃嘉、屠新泉:《贸易便利化是否提高了出口中的返回增加值》,《世界经济》2018年第8期。
(7)中国信息通信研究院:《中国数字经济发展与就业白皮书》,http://www.022net.com/2018/5-10/474429202652101.html,2018年5月10日。
(8)中国信息化百人会:《2017中国数字经济发展报告》,http://wemedia.ifeng.com/54222100/wemedia.shtml,2018年3月20日。
(9)Michael E.Porter:On Competition,CITIC Press,2003,pp.173-195.
(10)Stepwise:逐步回归法,根据设定的标准在计算过程中逐步加入有显著意义的变量和剔除无显著意义的变量,直到所建立的方程式中不再有可加入和可剔除的变量为止。
(11)夏杰长:《数字贸易的缘起、国际经验与发展策略》,《北京工商大学学报( 社会科学版)》2018年第5期。
(12)李忠民、周维颖:《美国数字贸易发展态势及我国的对策思考》,《全球化》2014年第11期。
(13)肖宇、夏杰长:《我国数字文化产业发展现状、问题与国际比较研究》,《全球化》2018年第8期。