基于前向—后向计划的交通政策推衍
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摘要
随着城市人口的增多和汽车的增加,城市交通问题日益突出,导致了一系列交通政策的出台。为了制定科学合理的交通政策,基于前向—后向计划的过程,从数理科学的角度出发,对交通政策的制定进行了推衍。文中引入区间数的概念表达了在交通政策制定的推衍过程中所涉及到的各种交通要素,能够很好地获得更为有效的模糊信息,体现了评价中偏差的摄动程度。最后,通过具体的案例详细地说明了依据前向—后向计划进行交通政策制定的推衍过程。
With the increase of urban population and automobiles,traffic problems occur frequently in today's society. A series of traffic problems lead to a transport policy. In order to formulate a scientific and reasonable policy,we can analyze transport policy-making based on the forward and backward process from the view of mathematical science. On all of transport factors expressed in form of interval number,we obtain fuzzy information effectively to evaluate the degree of deviation well. Ultimately using a concrete case,we describe the process of transport policy-making based on the forward and backward process in detail.
With the increase of urban population and automobiles,traffic problems occur frequently in today's society. A series of traffic problems lead to a transport policy. In order to formulate a scientific and reasonable policy,we can analyze transport policy-making based on the forward and backward process from the view of mathematical science. On all of transport factors expressed in form of interval number,we obtain fuzzy information effectively to evaluate the degree of deviation well. Ultimately using a concrete case,we describe the process of transport policy-making based on the forward and backward process in detail.
引文
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[2]杨涛,何宁,孙俊.城市交通政策研究[J].规划师,2005,(08):10-13.
[3]Rajib Mallick B,Michael J.Radzicki,Martins Zaumanis,Robert Frank.Use of system dynamics for proper conservation and recycling of aggregates for sustainable road construction[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2014,(86):61-73.
[4]高德荃.城市道路交通状态数据模式分析研究[D].武汉大学,2009:1-147.
[5]郑红娥,沈晖.论交通政策的演变:基于社会建构理论的分析[J].科学经济社会,2010,(03):58-64.
[6]Amir F N.Abdul-manan.Uncertainty and differences in GHG emissions between electric and conventional gasoline vehicles with implications for transport policy making[J].Energy Policy,2015,(87):1-7.
[7]张秀媛,杨新苗,闫琰.城市交通能耗和碳排放统计测算方法研究[J].中国软科学,2014,(06):142-150.
[8]Xu Chen,Xiaojun Wang.Effects of carbon emission reduction policies on transportation mode selections with stochastic demand[J].Transportation Research Part E,2015.
[9]潘海啸.上海城市交通政策的顶层设计思考[J].城市规划学刊,2012,(01):102-107.
[10]胡润州.我国城市交通的公私博弈与公交优先战略[J].上海城市管理,2013,(02):27-32.
[11]李振福,郭晓天.基于公交优先的城市和谐交通发展双E推模式[J].北方交通,2006,(09):58-61.
[12]宋朝丽.中国城市交通治理政策研究[J].湖北行政学院学报,2013,(01):80-83.
[13]陆化普.基于交通需求产生机理分析的大城市交通拥挤对策研究[J].道路交通与安全,2003,(02):15-18.
[14]李群峰,贺宁.公众参与的有效决策模型在城市交通政策制定中的应用[J].城市公用事业,2009,(23):18-21.
[15]Thomas L,Saaty et al.The logic of priorities[M].Springer Science,Business Media New York,1982,(6):101-117.
[16]张炳江.层次分析法及其应用案例[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014,(1):254-266.
[17]张进春,吴超,侯锦秀,黎敏.生产车间安全管理状况的区间数模糊综合评价方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(2):135-137.
[18]魏毅强,刘新旺,王绪柱.不确定型AHP中判断矩阵的一致性概念及权重[J].系统工程理论与实践,1994,(4):16-22.
[19]迟骋.北京市路段交通拥堵评价体系研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2007:1-46.
[20]徐泽水,达庆利.区间数排序的可能度法及其应用[J].系统工程学报,2003,18(1):67-69.
[21]徐泽水.模糊互补判断矩阵排序的一种算法[J].系统工程学报,2001,16(4):311-314.