信息化对旅游产业发展的空间溢出效应
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摘要
信息化将重塑区域间旅游产业的互动和关联。既有研究虽然对信息化与旅游产业发展之关系有所探讨,但多数研究忽视了信息化对旅游产业发展的空间溢出效应,因而难以准确测量信息化对旅游产业发展的贡献。采用中国大陆31个省份2001-2014年的面板数据,从区域关联的视角构建空间计量模型,测算信息化对旅游产业发展的直接影响和空间溢出影响。结果表明:(1)信息化与旅游产业发展均具有显著的空间关联性,传统的计量模型因未考虑个体间的空间交互作用而误估了信息化对旅游产业发展的产出弹性;(2)信息化基础设施和信息技术消费对旅游产业发展的作用路径存在差异,单纯的信息化基础设施建设并不一定能促进旅游产业的发展,过度的规模竞争反而会陷入"索洛生产率悖论";而信息技术消费的提升虽有助于正向的空间溢出,但其空间重构的潜力仍有待释放;(3)固定资产投入、劳动力和旅游接待规模等都是推进旅游产业发展的多维要素,但在信息化的交互影响下,资本和劳动力的空间溢出均不明显,而资源禀赋、环境质量、服务经济占比和产业集聚呈现出显著的负向外溢效应。
The development of information and communication technologies(ICT) is reconstructing and reshaping the relationships and inter-connections among different regions in the tourism industry. Existing research has shown that ICT plays a crucial role in the growth of the industry; however, scarce attention has been paid to the spatial spillover effects of ICT. As a result, it is hard to estimate accurately the influence of ICT on growth of tourism industry and the findings in that regard are not wholly convincing. Given the shortcomings mentioned above, the present study focuses on the interactive relationships among ICT infrastructure, ICT consumption and growth of tourism industry; there is a particular emphasis on the spatial spillover effects of ICT. We selected 31 provinces in China as our case region; our aim was to assess spatial differences and spatial clustering across the whole of Chinese mainland. Our data sources included China Statistical Yearbook and China Tourism Yearbook from 2001 to 2014.To determine the global spatial spillover effects of ICT on the growth of tourism industry, we employed the spatial panel Durbin model, using balanced panel data from 2001 to 2014. We obtained the following findings. First, the development of ICT and tourism industry shows a significant spatial agglomeration so that the conventional traditional models may be unable to accurately assess the related effects owing to ignorance of the spatial auto-correlation. Second,ICT infrastructure and ICT consumption have different effects on growth of the tourism industry. The development of ICT infrastructure alone is not certain to promote the growth of that industry, instead, unequal competition among different regions may produce Solow paradox. ICT consumption has both significant positive direct and spatial spillover effects on the growth of tourism industry. Third, capital input, labor input and tourism infrastructure are still important driving forces for industrial growth. However, with the transformative effects of ICT, the spatial spillover effects of capital and labor are insignificant; tourism resources,environment quality, proportion of the service industry, and tourism agglomeration have significant negative spillover effects, which leads to fierce competition among neighboring regions.
The development of information and communication technologies(ICT) is reconstructing and reshaping the relationships and inter-connections among different regions in the tourism industry. Existing research has shown that ICT plays a crucial role in the growth of the industry; however, scarce attention has been paid to the spatial spillover effects of ICT. As a result, it is hard to estimate accurately the influence of ICT on growth of tourism industry and the findings in that regard are not wholly convincing. Given the shortcomings mentioned above, the present study focuses on the interactive relationships among ICT infrastructure, ICT consumption and growth of tourism industry; there is a particular emphasis on the spatial spillover effects of ICT. We selected 31 provinces in China as our case region; our aim was to assess spatial differences and spatial clustering across the whole of Chinese mainland. Our data sources included China Statistical Yearbook and China Tourism Yearbook from 2001 to 2014.To determine the global spatial spillover effects of ICT on the growth of tourism industry, we employed the spatial panel Durbin model, using balanced panel data from 2001 to 2014. We obtained the following findings. First, the development of ICT and tourism industry shows a significant spatial agglomeration so that the conventional traditional models may be unable to accurately assess the related effects owing to ignorance of the spatial auto-correlation. Second,ICT infrastructure and ICT consumption have different effects on growth of the tourism industry. The development of ICT infrastructure alone is not certain to promote the growth of that industry, instead, unequal competition among different regions may produce Solow paradox. ICT consumption has both significant positive direct and spatial spillover effects on the growth of tourism industry. Third, capital input, labor input and tourism infrastructure are still important driving forces for industrial growth. However, with the transformative effects of ICT, the spatial spillover effects of capital and labor are insignificant; tourism resources,environment quality, proportion of the service industry, and tourism agglomeration have significant negative spillover effects, which leads to fierce competition among neighboring regions.
引文
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(1)由于国内缺乏旅游业增加值的直接统计数据,本文采用包含旅行社和星级饭店的旅游企业营业收入作为替代,以此衡量旅游产业发展水平。
(2)东部地区包含京、津、冀、辽、沪、苏、浙、闽、鲁、粤、桂、琼12个省区;中部地区包含晋、蒙、吉、黑、赣、皖、豫、鄂、湘9个省区;西部地区包含渝、川、贵、滇、陕、宁、青、甘、新、藏10个省区。限于篇幅,此处没有报告分省份普通面板的回归结果,留待备索。
[2] Pan Wenqing. Regional linkage and the spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth in China. Economic Research Journal, 2012(1):54-65.[潘文卿.中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应.经济研究, 2012(1):54-65.]
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[12] Kim E, Nam D, Stimpert J. The applicability of porter's generic strategies in the Digital Age:Assumptions, conjectures and suggestions. Journal of Management, 2004, 30(5):569-589.
[13] Turban E, Aronson J. Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems. Beijing:Tsinghua University Press, 2000.
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[16] Xiang Yucheng. Thoughts on the development of tourism industry under the background of tourism plus Internet.Tourism Tribune, 2016, 31(5):8-10.[向玉成.对“旅游+互联网”背景下旅游产业发展的思考.旅游学刊, 2016, 31(5):8-10.]
[17] Wang Degang. The effects of Internet's promotion on the tourism innovation. Tourism Tribune, 2016, 31(5):7-8.[王德刚.互联网对旅游业创新能力提升的促进作用.旅游学刊, 2016, 31(5):7-8.]
[18] Sun Linlin, Zheng Haitao, Ren Ruoen. The contribution of informatization to China's economic growth:Empirical evidence of industry panel data. The Journal of World Economy, 2012(2):3-25.[孙琳琳,郑海涛,任若恩.信息化对中国经济增长的贡献.世界经济, 2012(2):3-25.]
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[20] Bethapudi A. The role of ICT in tourism industry. Journal of Applied Economics and Business, 2013, 1(4):67-79.
[21] Balandin S, Laizane S. E-Tourism:The role of ICT in tourism industry//13th FRUCT Conference, 2013:184-185.
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(1)由于国内缺乏旅游业增加值的直接统计数据,本文采用包含旅行社和星级饭店的旅游企业营业收入作为替代,以此衡量旅游产业发展水平。
(2)东部地区包含京、津、冀、辽、沪、苏、浙、闽、鲁、粤、桂、琼12个省区;中部地区包含晋、蒙、吉、黑、赣、皖、豫、鄂、湘9个省区;西部地区包含渝、川、贵、滇、陕、宁、青、甘、新、藏10个省区。限于篇幅,此处没有报告分省份普通面板的回归结果,留待备索。