政府管制下既有建筑绿色改造主体演化博弈分析
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摘要
既有建筑绿色改造市场供需主体行为受到政府管制的影响,文章在考虑收益、风险、前期准备成本、政府激励约束政策等因素的基础上建立既有建筑业主和节能服务公司的演化博弈模型。研究结果表明:从不同初始情形出发,系统存在三种演化结果,业主和ESCO的最优稳定策略是主动进行绿色改造和提供高质量改造服务;政府激励约束政策、ESCO的前期准备成本、业主和ESCO的纯增量收益是影响博弈结果的关键因素;可通过提高纯增量收益和激励约束力度,降低增量风险和前期准备成本来优化演化博弈结果。最后,通过数值分析验证模型推理结论并提出优化方向。
The behavior of the supply and demand entities is affected by government regulation in the green retrofit market of existing buildings.This paper establishes an evolutionary game model among existing building owners and energy service companies considering the factors of revenue,risk,pre preparatory cost,incentive and constraint policy.The results indicate that there are three evolutionary results from different initial conditions,the best stable strategy for the owner and ESCO is to actively carry out green retrofit and provide high-quality retrofit services;the incentive and constraint policy of the government,the pre preparatory cost of ESCO,the pure incremental revenue of the owner and ESCO play a key role in the game results.We can optimize the results by improving pure incremental revenue,incentive and constraint,meanwhile by reducing incremental risk and pre preparatory cost.Finally,the paper demonstrates and optimizes the proposed model through numerical analysis.
The behavior of the supply and demand entities is affected by government regulation in the green retrofit market of existing buildings.This paper establishes an evolutionary game model among existing building owners and energy service companies considering the factors of revenue,risk,pre preparatory cost,incentive and constraint policy.The results indicate that there are three evolutionary results from different initial conditions,the best stable strategy for the owner and ESCO is to actively carry out green retrofit and provide high-quality retrofit services;the incentive and constraint policy of the government,the pre preparatory cost of ESCO,the pure incremental revenue of the owner and ESCO play a key role in the game results.We can optimize the results by improving pure incremental revenue,incentive and constraint,meanwhile by reducing incremental risk and pre preparatory cost.Finally,the paper demonstrates and optimizes the proposed model through numerical analysis.
引文
[1]王俊.既有建筑绿色改造的科研项目、标准规范与案例简介[J].施工技术,2014(10):4-9.
[2]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.既有建筑绿色改造评价标准:GB/T 51141-2015[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015.
[3]绿色建筑评价标识网.全国绿色建筑标识项目统计[DB/OL].(2018-03-10).http://www.cngb.org.cn/index.action?sid=402888b74f68e52e014f696c7643000c.
[4]Jin S,Marjanovic-Halburd L,Nasiri F,et al.Assessment of building-integrated green technologies:A review and case study on applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM)method[J].Sustainable Cities&Society,2016,27:106-115.
[5]Wang Q,Wang J,Fan D,et al.Development and application of existing building retrofitting technology in China[J].Construction Quality,2016(8):12-16.
[6]Sobti J,Singh S K.Earth-air heat exchanger as a green retrofit for Chandīgarh-A critical review[J].Geothermal Energy,2015,3(1):14.
[7]Jafari A,Valentin V.An optimization framework for building energy retrofits decision-making[J].Building&Environment,2017,115:118-129.
[8]Liang X,Peng Y,Shen G Q.A game theory based analysis of decision making for green retrofit under different occupancy types[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,137:1300-1312.
[9]Menassa C C,Baer B.A framework to assess the role of stakeholders in sustainable building retrofit decisions[J].Sustainable Cities&Society,2014,10:207-221.
[10]Lu Y J,Zhang N,Chen J Y.A Behavior-based decision-making model for energy performance contracting in building retrofit[J].Energy&Buildings,2017,156:315-326.
[11]Leung C M.Greening existing buildings[GEB]strategies[J].Energy Reports,2018,4:159-206.
[12]Hwang B G,Zhao X,Yi L S,et al.Addressing risks in green retrofit projects:The case of Singapore[J].Project Management Journal,2015,46(4):76-89.
[13]Jagarajan R,Asmoni M N A M,Mohammed A H,et al.Green retrofitting-A review of current status,implementations and challenges[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,67:1360-1368.
[14]Rosenow J,Eyre N.The green deal and the energy company obligation[J].Proceedings of Institution of Civil Engineers Energy,2013,166(3):127-136.
[15]王莹,窦蕾,刘思彤.基于改进FMEA的既有建筑绿色改造风险评价[J].生态经济,2018(1):89-93.
[16]高洪双,郑荣跃,黄莉.既有公共建筑绿色改造技术增量成本与效益分析[J].建筑技术,2017(2):177-179.
[17]洪辰玥,沈中伟.地下空间开发过程中绿色技术运用研究--以成都市为例[J].城市发展研究,2017(7):79-85.
[18]李晓丹,杨灏,郑泽民.既有工业建筑绿色化改造方案综合评价研究[J].施工技术,2016(22):81-87.
[19]李敬,李德英,王艳丽.基于改进模糊综合评价的既有建筑绿色改造潜力评估[J].建筑科学,2015(12):41-46.
[20]朱炜,华颖,吴璟,等.建筑节能数据库建设及其在既有建筑改造中的应用[J].建筑学报,2016(6):111-113.
[21]叶凌,王清勤,程志军.英国既有建筑绿色改造主要政策制度介绍及与我国的对比分析[J].施工技术,2014(10):18-22.
[22]Friedman D.On economic application of evolutionary game theory[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,1998,8(1):15-43.
[2]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.既有建筑绿色改造评价标准:GB/T 51141-2015[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015.
[3]绿色建筑评价标识网.全国绿色建筑标识项目统计[DB/OL].(2018-03-10).http://www.cngb.org.cn/index.action?sid=402888b74f68e52e014f696c7643000c.
[4]Jin S,Marjanovic-Halburd L,Nasiri F,et al.Assessment of building-integrated green technologies:A review and case study on applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM)method[J].Sustainable Cities&Society,2016,27:106-115.
[5]Wang Q,Wang J,Fan D,et al.Development and application of existing building retrofitting technology in China[J].Construction Quality,2016(8):12-16.
[6]Sobti J,Singh S K.Earth-air heat exchanger as a green retrofit for Chandīgarh-A critical review[J].Geothermal Energy,2015,3(1):14.
[7]Jafari A,Valentin V.An optimization framework for building energy retrofits decision-making[J].Building&Environment,2017,115:118-129.
[8]Liang X,Peng Y,Shen G Q.A game theory based analysis of decision making for green retrofit under different occupancy types[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,137:1300-1312.
[9]Menassa C C,Baer B.A framework to assess the role of stakeholders in sustainable building retrofit decisions[J].Sustainable Cities&Society,2014,10:207-221.
[10]Lu Y J,Zhang N,Chen J Y.A Behavior-based decision-making model for energy performance contracting in building retrofit[J].Energy&Buildings,2017,156:315-326.
[11]Leung C M.Greening existing buildings[GEB]strategies[J].Energy Reports,2018,4:159-206.
[12]Hwang B G,Zhao X,Yi L S,et al.Addressing risks in green retrofit projects:The case of Singapore[J].Project Management Journal,2015,46(4):76-89.
[13]Jagarajan R,Asmoni M N A M,Mohammed A H,et al.Green retrofitting-A review of current status,implementations and challenges[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,67:1360-1368.
[14]Rosenow J,Eyre N.The green deal and the energy company obligation[J].Proceedings of Institution of Civil Engineers Energy,2013,166(3):127-136.
[15]王莹,窦蕾,刘思彤.基于改进FMEA的既有建筑绿色改造风险评价[J].生态经济,2018(1):89-93.
[16]高洪双,郑荣跃,黄莉.既有公共建筑绿色改造技术增量成本与效益分析[J].建筑技术,2017(2):177-179.
[17]洪辰玥,沈中伟.地下空间开发过程中绿色技术运用研究--以成都市为例[J].城市发展研究,2017(7):79-85.
[18]李晓丹,杨灏,郑泽民.既有工业建筑绿色化改造方案综合评价研究[J].施工技术,2016(22):81-87.
[19]李敬,李德英,王艳丽.基于改进模糊综合评价的既有建筑绿色改造潜力评估[J].建筑科学,2015(12):41-46.
[20]朱炜,华颖,吴璟,等.建筑节能数据库建设及其在既有建筑改造中的应用[J].建筑学报,2016(6):111-113.
[21]叶凌,王清勤,程志军.英国既有建筑绿色改造主要政策制度介绍及与我国的对比分析[J].施工技术,2014(10):18-22.
[22]Friedman D.On economic application of evolutionary game theory[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,1998,8(1):15-43.