基于系统动力学的陕南地区循环经济发展水平研究
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摘要
实施循环经济是实现可持续发展的重要途径,科学准确地评价循环经济发展水平,为制定区域可持续发展战略提供了科学依据。文章运用能值理论和系统动力学方法,构建陕南循环经济发展水平评价模型,结果表明,在循环经济发展初期,陕南总能值消耗大幅上升,经济发展对不可更新资源消耗依赖度较高,系统可持续发展水平有限。随着资源循环利用率和能值投资率的增加,可持续发展指数和循环经济能值指数在2035年分别下降至2.26和2.05,说明坚持产业生态化,以绿色产业链建设为重点构筑陕南循环发展生态屏障是提升地区可持续发展水平的必由之路。
Implementing the circular economy is an important way to realize sustainable development. To evaluate the degree of the development of the circular economy by scientific and accurate approaches can provide scientific evidence to formulate the regional sustainable development strategies. This paper applies emergy theory and system dynamics method to construct the degree of the evaluation model of circular economy's development in southern Shaanxi. The results demonstrated that in the earlier stage of the circular economy development level, the total emergy consumption in southern Shaanxi has risen sharply, the economic development in southern Shaanxi was highly depending on the consumptions of non-renewable resources, and the sustainable development level of the system was limited. Along with the increasing of the rate of resources recycling efficiency and emergy investment, the index of sustainable development and the emergy of the circular economy will be down to 2.26 and 2.05 in 2035. That means to enhance the degree of the regional sustainable development in southern Shaanxi, the only way is to adhere to the industrial ecology and build up the ecological barrier of circular development which is focusing on the ecological industry chain.
Implementing the circular economy is an important way to realize sustainable development. To evaluate the degree of the development of the circular economy by scientific and accurate approaches can provide scientific evidence to formulate the regional sustainable development strategies. This paper applies emergy theory and system dynamics method to construct the degree of the evaluation model of circular economy's development in southern Shaanxi. The results demonstrated that in the earlier stage of the circular economy development level, the total emergy consumption in southern Shaanxi has risen sharply, the economic development in southern Shaanxi was highly depending on the consumptions of non-renewable resources, and the sustainable development level of the system was limited. Along with the increasing of the rate of resources recycling efficiency and emergy investment, the index of sustainable development and the emergy of the circular economy will be down to 2.26 and 2.05 in 2035. That means to enhance the degree of the regional sustainable development in southern Shaanxi, the only way is to adhere to the industrial ecology and build up the ecological barrier of circular development which is focusing on the ecological industry chain.
引文
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[2]喻锋,李晓波,王宏,等.基于能值分析和生态用地分类的中国生态系统生产总值核算研究[J].生态学报,2016(6):1663-1675.
[3]于水潇,赵瑞东,赵青,等.基于能值分析和生态用地分类的河北省生态补偿研究[J].水土保持研究,2017(4):324-329.
[4]楚芳芳,蒋涤非.基于能值分析的长株潭城市群生态经济系统演变态势分析[J].经济地理,2012(2):143-148.
[5]刘浩,王青,宋阳,等.基于能值分析的区域循环经济研究--以辽宁省为例[J].资源科学,2008(2):192-198.
[6]贾舒娴,黄健柏,钟美瑞.生态文明建设背景下江西省有色金属矿产开发生态影响能值分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017(9):1378-1387.
[7]Odum H T.Environmental accounting:Emergy and environmental decision making[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1996:32-34.
[8]李双成,傅小锋,郑度.中国经济持续发展水平的能值分析[J].自然资源学报,2001(4):297-304.
[9]蓝盛芳,钦佩,陆宏芳.生态经济系统的能值分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2002.
[10]聂艳,乌云嘎,于婧,等.基于能值分析的武穴市耕地利用效益时空特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015(6):987-993.
[11]孙玥,程全国,李晔,等.基于能值分析的辽宁省生态经济系统可持续发展评价[J].应用生态学报,2014(1):188-194.
[12]Axelrod R.Advancing the art of simulation in the social sciences[M].Manhattan:John Wiley&Sons,1997:16-22.
[13]周雄勇,许志端,郗永勤.中国节能减排系统动力学模型及政策优化仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018(6):1422-1444.
[14]杨顺顺.基于系统动力学的区域绿色发展多情景仿真及实证研究[J].系统工程,2017(7):76-84.
[15]李俊莉,曹明明.基于能值分析的资源型城市循环经济发展水平评价--以榆林市为例[J].干旱区地理,2013(3):528-535.
[16]Brown M T,Ulgiati S.Emergy evaluations and environmental loading of electricity production systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2002,10(4):321-334.
[17]刘志杰,陈克龙,赵志强,等.基于能值分析的区域循环经济研究--以柴达木盆地为例[J].水土保持研究,2011(1):141-145.