新农合如何影响农村中老年人口劳动供给——基于动态随机模型的分析
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摘要
文章基于2011年和2013年的CHARLS调查数据,利用动态随机模型和计算机模拟方法研究新农合对中国农村中老年人口劳动参与决策的影响。研究结果发现,新农合能够有效促进农村中老年人口劳动时间的供给,并且这种影响效应存在"年龄门槛",尤其是针对57岁以上人口的影响尤为明显;同时,新农合的健康效应会增加农村中老年人口的劳动时间,而经济效应则减少相应的劳动时间供给,这两种影响效应相互抵消,共同影响农村中老年人口的劳动参与决策。在对新农合政策细则变化的模拟情境下,发现报销比例的提高会显著降低"年龄门槛"、增加个体劳动时间以及提高劳动参与率,但取消起付线和封顶线的影响作用相对不明显。因此,要积极完善新农合以缓解农村劳动力不足问题,从而推动实现全面建成小康社会。
Based on the CHARLS survey data of 2011 and 2013, the paper uses dynamic stochastic model and computer simulation method to study the influence of NRCMS on the labor participation of middle-aged and elderly populations in rural China. The results show that the MRCMS can effectively promote the supply of labor time for the middleaged and elderly groups in rural areas, and this effect has a "age threshold", especially for the population over 57 years old. At the same time, the health effect will increase their labor time, and then the economic effec will reduce the corresponding supply of labor time. Furthermore, the two effects cancel each other, and jointly affect the labor participation decision-making of the rural middle-aged and elderly people. In the simulated situations of changes in the policy rules, it is found that the increase of reimbursement rates will significantly reduce the "age threshold", increase the labor time and improve the labor participation rate, but the effect of the cancellation of the starting line and the top line is not obvious. Therefore, we should actively improve the NRCMS to alleviate the shortage of rural labor, so as to promote the realization of a well-off society in an all-round way.
Based on the CHARLS survey data of 2011 and 2013, the paper uses dynamic stochastic model and computer simulation method to study the influence of NRCMS on the labor participation of middle-aged and elderly populations in rural China. The results show that the MRCMS can effectively promote the supply of labor time for the middleaged and elderly groups in rural areas, and this effect has a "age threshold", especially for the population over 57 years old. At the same time, the health effect will increase their labor time, and then the economic effec will reduce the corresponding supply of labor time. Furthermore, the two effects cancel each other, and jointly affect the labor participation decision-making of the rural middle-aged and elderly people. In the simulated situations of changes in the policy rules, it is found that the increase of reimbursement rates will significantly reduce the "age threshold", increase the labor time and improve the labor participation rate, but the effect of the cancellation of the starting line and the top line is not obvious. Therefore, we should actively improve the NRCMS to alleviate the shortage of rural labor, so as to promote the realization of a well-off society in an all-round way.
引文
[1]Cai L,Kalb G.Health Status and Labour Force Participation:Evidence from Australia[J].Health Economics,2010,15(3):241-261.
[2]庞丽华,Scott Rozelle,Alan De Brauw.中国农村老人的劳动供给研究[J].经济学(季刊), 2003,2(3):721-730.
[3]杨志海,麦尔旦·吐尔孙,王雅鹏.健康冲击对农村中老年人农业劳动供给的影响——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2015(3):24-37.
[4]谭娜,周先波.中国农村老年人“无休止劳动”存在吗?——基于年龄和健康对劳动供给时间影响的研究[J].经济评论,2013(2):19-29.
[5]何泱泱,周钦.“新农保”对农村居民主观福利的影响研究[J].保险研究,2016(3):106-117.
[6]张川川,John Giles,赵耀辉.新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(1):203-230.
[7]周钦,刘国恩.健康冲击:现行医疗保险制度究竟发挥了什么作用?[J].经济评论,2014(6):78-90.
[8]潘杰,雷晓燕.刘国恩.医疗保险促进健康吗?——基于中国城镇居民基本医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013(4):130-142.
[9]黄枫,甘犁.过度需求还是有效需求?——城镇老人健康与医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2010(45):105-119.
[10]程令国,张晔.新农合:经济绩效还是健康绩效?[J].经济研究,2012(1):120-133.
[11]马双,张劼.新型农村合作医疗保险与居民营养结构的改善[J].经济研究,2011(5):126-137.
[12]白重恩,李宏彬,吴斌珍.医疗保险与消费:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据[J].经济研究,2012(2):41-53.
[13]许庆,刘进.新农合制度对农村妇女劳动供给的影响[J].中国人口科学,2015(3):99-128.
[14]Currie J,Madrian B C.Chapter 50 Health,Health Insurance and the Labor Market[J].Handbook of Labor Economics, 1999,3(3):3309-3416.
[15]Dwyer D S,Mitchell O S.Health Problems As Determinants of Retirement:Are Self-rated Measures Endogenous?[J].Journal of Health Economics,1999,18(2):173-193.
[16]Disney R, Emmerson C,Wakefield M.Ill Health and Retirement in Britain:A Panel Data-based Analysis[J].Journal of Health Economics,2006,25(4):621-649.
[17]王翌秋,刘蕾.新型农村合作医疗保险、健康人力资本对农村居民劳动参与的影响[J].中国农村经济,2016,(11):68-81.
[18]Gustman A L, Steinmeier T L. The Role of Health in Retirement[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014.
[19]Gustman A L,Steinmeier T L. Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble[J].Nber Working Papers,2002.
[20]Gustman, A. L.,&Steinmeier, T. L. Social security and retirement dynamics[J]. Ssrn Electronic Journal,2006.
[21]Gustman A L, Steinmeier T L. How Changes in Social Security Affect Recent Retirement Trends[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2006,31(2):261-290.
[22]陈竺,张茅.中国新型农村合作医疗发展报告(2002—2012)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2013.
[23]French E, Jones J B. The Effects of Health Insurance and Self-Insurance on Retirement Behavior[J].Econometrica,2011,79(3):693-732.
(1)收入减少对劳动供给的影响主要为替代效应和促进效应。前者因为收入减少,相当于对劳动者产生一个负向激励,促使劳动者减少劳动供给;后者即因收入减少,个体需要增加劳动供给才能维持原来的生活水平。这两种效应有相互制约作用。
(2)这些地区包括:甘孜藏族自治州、阿克苏地区、锡林郭勒盟、呼和浩特市、呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟和赤峰市,共210个数据。
(3)补偿政策条款来自中国城乡居民基本医疗保险(新农合)信息平台,部分未登记在信息平台的,信息来自相应地区的卫生局(卫计委)官方网站,在此基础上,作者进行了手工整理。
[2]庞丽华,Scott Rozelle,Alan De Brauw.中国农村老人的劳动供给研究[J].经济学(季刊), 2003,2(3):721-730.
[3]杨志海,麦尔旦·吐尔孙,王雅鹏.健康冲击对农村中老年人农业劳动供给的影响——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2015(3):24-37.
[4]谭娜,周先波.中国农村老年人“无休止劳动”存在吗?——基于年龄和健康对劳动供给时间影响的研究[J].经济评论,2013(2):19-29.
[5]何泱泱,周钦.“新农保”对农村居民主观福利的影响研究[J].保险研究,2016(3):106-117.
[6]张川川,John Giles,赵耀辉.新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(1):203-230.
[7]周钦,刘国恩.健康冲击:现行医疗保险制度究竟发挥了什么作用?[J].经济评论,2014(6):78-90.
[8]潘杰,雷晓燕.刘国恩.医疗保险促进健康吗?——基于中国城镇居民基本医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013(4):130-142.
[9]黄枫,甘犁.过度需求还是有效需求?——城镇老人健康与医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2010(45):105-119.
[10]程令国,张晔.新农合:经济绩效还是健康绩效?[J].经济研究,2012(1):120-133.
[11]马双,张劼.新型农村合作医疗保险与居民营养结构的改善[J].经济研究,2011(5):126-137.
[12]白重恩,李宏彬,吴斌珍.医疗保险与消费:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据[J].经济研究,2012(2):41-53.
[13]许庆,刘进.新农合制度对农村妇女劳动供给的影响[J].中国人口科学,2015(3):99-128.
[14]Currie J,Madrian B C.Chapter 50 Health,Health Insurance and the Labor Market[J].Handbook of Labor Economics, 1999,3(3):3309-3416.
[15]Dwyer D S,Mitchell O S.Health Problems As Determinants of Retirement:Are Self-rated Measures Endogenous?[J].Journal of Health Economics,1999,18(2):173-193.
[16]Disney R, Emmerson C,Wakefield M.Ill Health and Retirement in Britain:A Panel Data-based Analysis[J].Journal of Health Economics,2006,25(4):621-649.
[17]王翌秋,刘蕾.新型农村合作医疗保险、健康人力资本对农村居民劳动参与的影响[J].中国农村经济,2016,(11):68-81.
[18]Gustman A L, Steinmeier T L. The Role of Health in Retirement[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2014.
[19]Gustman A L,Steinmeier T L. Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble[J].Nber Working Papers,2002.
[20]Gustman, A. L.,&Steinmeier, T. L. Social security and retirement dynamics[J]. Ssrn Electronic Journal,2006.
[21]Gustman A L, Steinmeier T L. How Changes in Social Security Affect Recent Retirement Trends[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2006,31(2):261-290.
[22]陈竺,张茅.中国新型农村合作医疗发展报告(2002—2012)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2013.
[23]French E, Jones J B. The Effects of Health Insurance and Self-Insurance on Retirement Behavior[J].Econometrica,2011,79(3):693-732.
(1)收入减少对劳动供给的影响主要为替代效应和促进效应。前者因为收入减少,相当于对劳动者产生一个负向激励,促使劳动者减少劳动供给;后者即因收入减少,个体需要增加劳动供给才能维持原来的生活水平。这两种效应有相互制约作用。
(2)这些地区包括:甘孜藏族自治州、阿克苏地区、锡林郭勒盟、呼和浩特市、呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟和赤峰市,共210个数据。
(3)补偿政策条款来自中国城乡居民基本医疗保险(新农合)信息平台,部分未登记在信息平台的,信息来自相应地区的卫生局(卫计委)官方网站,在此基础上,作者进行了手工整理。