我国三大主粮的分区域布局与供给曲线分析
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摘要
利用2014年度各省份三种主要粮食作物种植的亩均总成本数据,在分析比较不同省份农户种植同种作物成本差异的基础上,以各省的平均成本作为全国的边际成本构建了我国三大主粮的供给曲线,结合本研究构建的理性预期行为下的农户决策模型,探讨通过调整国家补贴引导农户生产行为以实现粮食分区域布局的具体实施方案。研究结果表明,所考察的三种作物中,玉米和小麦种植的成本优势地区集中于我国北方,相比而言,长江中游以及东南沿海地区农户种植稻谷成本较低。本研究认为,通过国家补贴政策的合理调整可以推动一些省份退出高成本作物的种植,将相关作物的生产配置在成本最小的地区,以促进粮食生产分区域布局的实现。
Based on the average cost per mu of the three main food crops planted in each province in 2014,this paper analyzes and compares the difference in the cost of planting the same crops among farmers in different provinces,and builds the supply curve by using the average cost of each province as the marginal cost of the country.The supply curve of the staple food,combined with the farmers' decision-making model under the rational expectation behavior,explores the specific implementation plan to guide the farmers' production behavior by adjusting the state subsidies to achieve the grain sub-regional layout.The results show that among the three crops examined,the cost advantage area of corn and wheat cultivation is concentrated in the north of China.In comparison,the cost of growing rice in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeast coastal areas is relatively low.This paper believes that through the reasonable adjustment of the state subsidy policy,some provinces are supposed to withdraw from the cultivation of high-cost crops,and the production of related crops can be allocated to the regions with the lowest cost to promote the realization of the distribution of grain production.
Based on the average cost per mu of the three main food crops planted in each province in 2014,this paper analyzes and compares the difference in the cost of planting the same crops among farmers in different provinces,and builds the supply curve by using the average cost of each province as the marginal cost of the country.The supply curve of the staple food,combined with the farmers' decision-making model under the rational expectation behavior,explores the specific implementation plan to guide the farmers' production behavior by adjusting the state subsidies to achieve the grain sub-regional layout.The results show that among the three crops examined,the cost advantage area of corn and wheat cultivation is concentrated in the north of China.In comparison,the cost of growing rice in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeast coastal areas is relatively low.This paper believes that through the reasonable adjustment of the state subsidy policy,some provinces are supposed to withdraw from the cultivation of high-cost crops,and the production of related crops can be allocated to the regions with the lowest cost to promote the realization of the distribution of grain production.
引文
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[17]朱晶,李天祥,朱珏.江苏省粮食增产的贡献因素分解与测算(2004—2013年)——基于粮食内部种植结构调整的视角[J].华东经济管理,2015,29(3):11-16.
[2]王莉,楚尔鸣.基于粮食安全的区域强制分工与区际利益补偿[J].经济地理,2018,38(4):164-170.
[3]张哲,张蕾.西北地区种植业结构调整中的“背离现象”——区域专业化与比较优势协调性实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2003(9):25-31.
[4]杨春,陆文聪.中国粮食生产空间布局变迁实证[J].经济地理,2008(5):813-816.
[5]屈宝香,张华,李刚.中国粮食生产布局与结构区域演变分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(1):1-6.
[6]邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,等.中国粮食生产区域格局演变研究[J].农业技术经济,2013(9):108-114.
[7]陈秧分,王国刚,王丽娟.农户生产决策视角下我国粮食生产格局变化机制[J].经济地理,2016,36(7):139-145.
[8]徐志刚,傅龙波,钟甫宁.中国粮食生产的区域比较优势分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2001(1):48-51.
[9]钟甫宁,叶春辉.中国种植业战略性结构调整的原则和模拟结果[J].中国农村经济,2004(4):4-9,23.
[10]胡艳君,乔娟.比较优势与山西省种植业结构调整[J].中国农业资源与区划,2004(3):20-25.
[11]汪希成.中国主要粮食品种生产的区域优势比较[J].财经科学,2014(7):102-113.
[12]李谷成.技术效率、技术进步与中国农业生产率增长[J].经济评论,2009(1):60-68.
[13]李霖,郭红东.小农户集体行动研究文献综述——基于市场准入视角[J].中国农村观察,2014(6):82-91,96.
[14]吴敬学.“八连增”之下粮食安全形势依然任重道远[J].中国合作经济,2012(5):10-11.
[15]王济民,肖红波.我国粮食八年增产的性质与前景[J].农业经济问题,2013,34(2):22-31.
[16]肖朝卿.甘肃农业面源污染防治问题研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2016.
[17]朱晶,李天祥,朱珏.江苏省粮食增产的贡献因素分解与测算(2004—2013年)——基于粮食内部种植结构调整的视角[J].华东经济管理,2015,29(3):11-16.