未来十年全球供需格局下2017/2018榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与展望
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摘要
基于未来十年全球食糖供需形势这一研究背景,探讨了我国2017/2018榨季食糖市场形势尤其是消费特点,结果发现:第一,2017/2018榨季我国食糖期货和现货价格在增产预期驱动下呈现趋势性走低态势;第二,储备糖政策和走私糖入境等不确定因素对产业影响减弱,与2016/2017榨季价格抑制消费有所不同,2017/2018榨季我国食糖消费更多受国内经济环境和产业自身发展影响;第三,从宏观经济数据、食品工业分行业数据和产业月度供需平衡模型3个维度剖析2017/2018榨季我国食糖消费形势后发现,我国食糖消费特点发生显著变化,由前几个榨季"甜度需求增加、中间库存显增、替代显著放缓"转变为2017/2018榨季的"甜度需求减少、中间库存降低、替代增量稳定"。进而展望了2018/2019榨季食糖消费形势,预计呈现"总量稳定、降速变缓"消费特征可能较大,"走私持续入境、渠道库存低位"态势或将持续。
Based on the research background of the global sugar supply and demand situation in the next ten years, this paper discussed the sugar market situation, especially the consumption characteristics during the2017-2018 crushing season in China. The results were listed as follows: first, China's sugar futures and spot prices in the 2017-2018 period showed a downward trend driven by the expected increase in production;Secondly, the influence of the policy of sugar storage and the entry of smuggled sugar on the industry was weakened, which was different from 2016-2017 crushing season. The consumption of sugar in China was affected more by the domestic economic environment and the development of sugar industry itself in the period of 2017-2018. Third, from the macroeconomic figures according to the analysis of the food industry sub-industry data and the monthly supply and demand balance model of the industry in three dimensions, after analyzing the sugar consumption situation in China during the 2017-2018 crushing season, we found that the characteristics of sugar consumption in China had changed significantly, from " sweetness demand increases, intermediate inventories increase significantly, with a marked slowdown in substitution from the previous pressing seasons" to " demand for sweetness reduces, intermediate inventories are lower, and substitution increments are stable" in the 2017-2018 crushing season. Furthermore, the consumption situation of sugar in the 2018-2019 crushing season was prospected. It was expected that the consumption characteristics of "total quantity is stable, the speed of decline will slow down" may be greater, and trend of "smuggling continues to enter the country, and channel inventory is low" may continue.
Based on the research background of the global sugar supply and demand situation in the next ten years, this paper discussed the sugar market situation, especially the consumption characteristics during the2017-2018 crushing season in China. The results were listed as follows: first, China's sugar futures and spot prices in the 2017-2018 period showed a downward trend driven by the expected increase in production;Secondly, the influence of the policy of sugar storage and the entry of smuggled sugar on the industry was weakened, which was different from 2016-2017 crushing season. The consumption of sugar in China was affected more by the domestic economic environment and the development of sugar industry itself in the period of 2017-2018. Third, from the macroeconomic figures according to the analysis of the food industry sub-industry data and the monthly supply and demand balance model of the industry in three dimensions, after analyzing the sugar consumption situation in China during the 2017-2018 crushing season, we found that the characteristics of sugar consumption in China had changed significantly, from " sweetness demand increases, intermediate inventories increase significantly, with a marked slowdown in substitution from the previous pressing seasons" to " demand for sweetness reduces, intermediate inventories are lower, and substitution increments are stable" in the 2017-2018 crushing season. Furthermore, the consumption situation of sugar in the 2018-2019 crushing season was prospected. It was expected that the consumption characteristics of "total quantity is stable, the speed of decline will slow down" may be greater, and trend of "smuggling continues to enter the country, and channel inventory is low" may continue.
引文
[1]姜超,于博,陈兴.下行中的震荡[R/OL].实体经济观察,2018(42)[2018-11-09]. http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2018-11-09/doc-ihmutuea8362936.shtml.
[2]刘晓雪,王新超. 2016/17年榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与2017/18年榨季展望[J].甘蔗糖业,2018(2):19-26.
[3]international sugar&sweetener report:The global sugar balance outlook to 2030[R/OL], 2018-10-19. http://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/login/
[2]刘晓雪,王新超. 2016/17年榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与2017/18年榨季展望[J].甘蔗糖业,2018(2):19-26.
[3]international sugar&sweetener report:The global sugar balance outlook to 2030[R/OL], 2018-10-19. http://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/login/