基于事故树分析的煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系
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摘要
科学、合理的预警指标体系是准确、可靠预警煤与瓦斯突出的前提。以两个"四位一体"综合防突技术体系为依据,编制了煤与瓦斯突出事故树,对事故树基本事件进行了归纳和分类。根据分类结果,从生产系统缺陷、客观突出危险、防突措施缺陷、防突管理隐患等4个方面,构建了煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系框架。在此基础上,分析各预警要素与煤与瓦斯突出之间的关系,设计和选取了52个预警指标,建立了煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系。煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系的建立,可为煤与瓦斯突出预警方法、模型研究和预警系统开发提供指导和支撑。
Scientific and reasonable early warning index system is the premise of accurate and reliable early warning of coal and gas outburst. Based on the two "four in one" comprehensive anti-outburst technology systems,the fault trees of coal and gas outburst were compiled,and the basic events of the fault trees were summarized and classified. According to the classification results,the early-warning index system framework of coal and gas outburst was designed from four aspects,including production system defect,objective outburst danger,defect of outburst prevention measure and hidden danger of outburst prevention management. On this basis,the relationship between early warning elements and coal and gas outburst was analyzed,and 52 early-warning indexes were designed and selected to establish the early-warning index system of coal and gas outburst. The establishment of this system can provide guidance and support for the research of early warning method,model and system.
Scientific and reasonable early warning index system is the premise of accurate and reliable early warning of coal and gas outburst. Based on the two "four in one" comprehensive anti-outburst technology systems,the fault trees of coal and gas outburst were compiled,and the basic events of the fault trees were summarized and classified. According to the classification results,the early-warning index system framework of coal and gas outburst was designed from four aspects,including production system defect,objective outburst danger,defect of outburst prevention measure and hidden danger of outburst prevention management. On this basis,the relationship between early warning elements and coal and gas outburst was analyzed,and 52 early-warning indexes were designed and selected to establish the early-warning index system of coal and gas outburst. The establishment of this system can provide guidance and support for the research of early warning method,model and system.
引文
[1]王旭昭,侯磊,苏龙.2011—2014年全国煤矿重特大事故统计分析与启示[J].中国公共安全(学术版),2015(2):26-29.
[2]陈娟,赵耀江.近十年来我国煤矿事故统计分析及启示[J].煤炭工程,2012(3):137-139.
[3]胡千庭,赵旭生.中国煤与瓦斯突出事故现状及其预防对策建议[J].矿业安全与环保,2012,39(5):1-5.
[4]隋鹏程,陈宝智,隋旭.安全原理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[5]袁亮,薛生.煤层瓦斯含量法确定保护层开采消突范围的技术及应用[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(9):1786-1791.
[6]胡千庭,文光才.煤与瓦斯突出的力学作用机理[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:135-137.
[7]金洪伟.煤与瓦斯突出发展过程的实验与机理分析[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(增刊1):98-103.
[8]于不凡.煤矿瓦斯灾害防治及利用技术手册[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005:568-570.
[9]张铁岗.矿井瓦斯综合治理技术[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2001:476-479.
[10]张子敏,张玉贵.瓦斯地质规律与瓦斯预测[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005.
[11]程远平,张晓磊,王亮.地应力对瓦斯压力及突出灾害的控制作用研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(3):408-414.
[12]邵强,王恩营,王红卫,等.构造煤分布规律对煤与瓦斯突出的控制[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):250-254.
[13]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤与瓦斯突出预测技术研究现状及发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(6):40-43.
[14]石显鑫,蔡栓荣,冯宏,等.利用声发射技术预测预报煤与瓦斯突出[J].煤田地质与勘探,1998,26(3):60-65.
[15]邹银辉,赵旭生,刘胜.声发射连续预测煤与瓦斯突出技术研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2005,33(6):61-65.
[16]王恩元,何学秋,李忠辉,等.煤岩电磁辐射技术及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:75-79.
[17]王恩元,李忠辉,何学秋,等.煤与瓦斯突出电磁辐射预警技术及应用[J].煤炭科学技术,2014,42(6):53-57.
[18]张庆华,文光才,邹云龙,等.瓦斯涌出预警指标及其临界值优选方法[J].矿业安全与环保,2014,41(1):23-27.
[19]王建民,马国龙.基于瓦斯涌出特征的突出预警技术在大淑村矿的应用[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,40(6):39-42.
[20]邓明,张国枢,陈清华.基于瓦斯涌出时间序列的煤与瓦斯突出预报[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):260-263.
[2]陈娟,赵耀江.近十年来我国煤矿事故统计分析及启示[J].煤炭工程,2012(3):137-139.
[3]胡千庭,赵旭生.中国煤与瓦斯突出事故现状及其预防对策建议[J].矿业安全与环保,2012,39(5):1-5.
[4]隋鹏程,陈宝智,隋旭.安全原理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[5]袁亮,薛生.煤层瓦斯含量法确定保护层开采消突范围的技术及应用[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(9):1786-1791.
[6]胡千庭,文光才.煤与瓦斯突出的力学作用机理[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:135-137.
[7]金洪伟.煤与瓦斯突出发展过程的实验与机理分析[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(增刊1):98-103.
[8]于不凡.煤矿瓦斯灾害防治及利用技术手册[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005:568-570.
[9]张铁岗.矿井瓦斯综合治理技术[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2001:476-479.
[10]张子敏,张玉贵.瓦斯地质规律与瓦斯预测[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005.
[11]程远平,张晓磊,王亮.地应力对瓦斯压力及突出灾害的控制作用研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(3):408-414.
[12]邵强,王恩营,王红卫,等.构造煤分布规律对煤与瓦斯突出的控制[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):250-254.
[13]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤与瓦斯突出预测技术研究现状及发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(6):40-43.
[14]石显鑫,蔡栓荣,冯宏,等.利用声发射技术预测预报煤与瓦斯突出[J].煤田地质与勘探,1998,26(3):60-65.
[15]邹银辉,赵旭生,刘胜.声发射连续预测煤与瓦斯突出技术研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2005,33(6):61-65.
[16]王恩元,何学秋,李忠辉,等.煤岩电磁辐射技术及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:75-79.
[17]王恩元,李忠辉,何学秋,等.煤与瓦斯突出电磁辐射预警技术及应用[J].煤炭科学技术,2014,42(6):53-57.
[18]张庆华,文光才,邹云龙,等.瓦斯涌出预警指标及其临界值优选方法[J].矿业安全与环保,2014,41(1):23-27.
[19]王建民,马国龙.基于瓦斯涌出特征的突出预警技术在大淑村矿的应用[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,40(6):39-42.
[20]邓明,张国枢,陈清华.基于瓦斯涌出时间序列的煤与瓦斯突出预报[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):260-263.