新农合对农村老年人劳动供给行为影响的实证研究
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摘要
健康保险通过保障效应和健康效应影响劳动供给,而二者对劳动供给的影响恰好相反,因此健康保险对劳动供给的具体影响仍旧是一个值得探讨的问题。本文采用CHNS的2004、2006、2009和2011年四期数据研究发现,新农合显著提高农村老年人的非农劳动供给率和农业劳动供给率,表现为健康效应;但减少了非农劳动时间,表现为保障效应。新农合提高了参合老年人的农业劳动供给时间,该结果在全年农业劳动供给时间小于672小时的个体中特别显著,在该群体中表现为健康效应。此外研究发现,新农合对男性老年人农业劳动供给率的影响比对女性老年人的影响更加显著。
Health insurance affects labor supply of the elder through reducing income fluctuation(security effect) and improving health(health effect),and these two effects have exactly opposite impact. However,the empirical investigation of insurance on labor supply remains little explored. In this paper,we employed the CHNS 2004,2006,2009 and 2011 survey data to study the effect of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme on labor supply of the elder in rural China. The results show that the New Cooperative Medical Scheme tends to significantly improve non-agriculture labor participation of rural elder,as well as improving their agriculture labor participation,which attributes to health effect. But the scheme reduces non-agriculture labor time at the mean time,which suggests a greater security effect. Specially,the scheme significantly boosts agriculture labor time of those whose yearly agriculture labor time is less than 672 hours. In addition,our research shows the effect on agriculture labor participation is more significantly among the male than the female.
Health insurance affects labor supply of the elder through reducing income fluctuation(security effect) and improving health(health effect),and these two effects have exactly opposite impact. However,the empirical investigation of insurance on labor supply remains little explored. In this paper,we employed the CHNS 2004,2006,2009 and 2011 survey data to study the effect of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme on labor supply of the elder in rural China. The results show that the New Cooperative Medical Scheme tends to significantly improve non-agriculture labor participation of rural elder,as well as improving their agriculture labor participation,which attributes to health effect. But the scheme reduces non-agriculture labor time at the mean time,which suggests a greater security effect. Specially,the scheme significantly boosts agriculture labor time of those whose yearly agriculture labor time is less than 672 hours. In addition,our research shows the effect on agriculture labor participation is more significantly among the male than the female.
引文
[1]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[2]蔡昉,王美艳.农村劳动力剩余及其相关事实的重新考察——一个反设事实法的应用[J].中国农村经济,2007(10).
[3]国家统计局.中国2010年人口普查资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010.
[4]张建武.劳动供给的发展脉络及其影响因素:一个国内文献综述[J].中国劳动经济学,2011(1).
[5]ROBERT E Lucas,LEONARD A.Rapping.Real wages,Employment,and inflation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77:721-754.
[6]车翼,王元月,马驰聘.老年劳动者劳动供给行为的Logistic经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(1).
[7]庞丽华,SCOTT Rozelle,ALAN de Brauw.中国农村老人的劳动供给研究[J].经济学季刊,2003(3).
[8]BERTRAND,MARIANNE,SENDHILMULLAINATHAN,et al.Public policy and extended families:Evidence from pensions in south africa[J].World Bank Economic Review,2003,17(1):27-50.
[9]GIOVANNI Mastrobuoni.Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts:Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities[J].Journal of Public Economics,2009,93:1224-1233.
[10]TAKASHI Oshio,AKIKO Sato Oishi,SATOSHI Shimizutani.Social security reforms and labour force participation of the elderly in Japan[J].Japanese Economic Review,2009:1-23.
[11]程杰.养老保障的劳动供给效应[J].经济研究,2014(10).
[12]张川川,John Giles,赵耀辉.新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给[J].经济学季刊,2014(1).
[13]MCGARRY K.Health and retirement:Do changes in health affect retirement expectations[J].Journal of Human Resources,2004,39:624-648.
[14]CAI L,KALB G.Health status and labour force participation:Evidence from Australia[J].Journal of Health Economics,2005,15:241-261.
[15]DISNEY R,EMMERSON C,WAKEFIELD M.Ill health and retirement in Britain:A panel date-based analysis[J].Journal of Health Economics,2006,25:621-649.
[16]ANDERSON K H,BURKHAUSER R V.The importance of the measure of health in empirical estimates of the labor supply of older men[J].Economics Letters,1984,16:375-380.
[17]KALWIJ A,VERMEULEN F.Health and labour force participation of older people in Europe:What do objective health indicators add to the analysis?[J].Journal of Health Economics,2008,17:619-638.
[18]MIAH M S,WILCOX-GK V.Do the sick retire early?Chronic Illness,Asset accumulation and early retirement[J].Applied Economics,2007,39:1921-1936.
[19]杨志海,麦尔旦·吐尔孙,王雅鹏.健康冲击对农村中老年人农业劳动供给的影响——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2015(3).
[20]李琴,雷晓燕,赵耀辉.健康对中国中老年人劳动供给的影响[J].经济学季刊,2014(3).
[21]秦立建,秦雪征,蒋中一.健康对农民工外出务工劳动供给时间的影响[J].中国农村经济,2012(8).
[22]刘生龙.健康对农村居民劳动力参与的影响[J].中国农村经济,2008(8).
[23]潘杰,雷晓燕,刘国恩.医疗保险促进健康吗?——基于中国城镇居民基本医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013(4).
[24]程令国,张晔.“新农合”:经济绩效还是健康绩效?[J].经济研究,2012(1).
[25]张哲元,陈华,李臻.健康保险能改善健康吗——“新农合”的健康绩效评估[J].社会保障研究,2015(4).
[26]王新军,郑超.医疗保险对老年人医疗支出与健康的影响[J].财经研究,2014(12).
[27]许庆,刘进.“新农合”制度对农村妇女劳动供给的影响[J].中国人口科学,2015(3).
[28]伊兰伯格,史密斯.现代劳动经济学——理论与公共政策[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[29]EUROPEAN COMMISSION.The european core health indicators(ECHI)shortlist of 88 health indicators identified by policy area[R].2012.
[30]洪岩壁.Logistic模型的系数比较问题及解决策略:一个综述[J].社会,2015(4).
(1)世界卫生组织最新的分类中将60岁以上个体定义为老年。
(2)事实上,农业劳动参与若定义为与非农劳动相同,并不改变最终的估计结果,但因为数据原因,若将农业劳动参与定义为大于52小时,那么参与农业劳动的样本比例过大,因此定义农业劳动为大于104小时。
(1)表1中非农劳动供给率、非农劳动供给时间统计的是用于非农劳动的3299个样本;农业劳动供给率、农业劳动供给时间统计的是用于农业劳动的2732个样本;其它自变量统计的是4189个总样本。故各自变量的情况在农业劳动和非农劳动样本中会略有不同,但没有较大变动。
(1)odds ratio的翻译参考洪岩壁(2015)[30]。
(2)P'(Y=1)/(1-P'(Y=1))÷P(Y=1)/(1-P(Y=1))=e3.03≈21,后文计算方法相同。
(1)文章中未详细给出的估计结果,读者若有兴趣均可向作者索要。
[2]蔡昉,王美艳.农村劳动力剩余及其相关事实的重新考察——一个反设事实法的应用[J].中国农村经济,2007(10).
[3]国家统计局.中国2010年人口普查资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010.
[4]张建武.劳动供给的发展脉络及其影响因素:一个国内文献综述[J].中国劳动经济学,2011(1).
[5]ROBERT E Lucas,LEONARD A.Rapping.Real wages,Employment,and inflation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77:721-754.
[6]车翼,王元月,马驰聘.老年劳动者劳动供给行为的Logistic经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(1).
[7]庞丽华,SCOTT Rozelle,ALAN de Brauw.中国农村老人的劳动供给研究[J].经济学季刊,2003(3).
[8]BERTRAND,MARIANNE,SENDHILMULLAINATHAN,et al.Public policy and extended families:Evidence from pensions in south africa[J].World Bank Economic Review,2003,17(1):27-50.
[9]GIOVANNI Mastrobuoni.Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts:Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities[J].Journal of Public Economics,2009,93:1224-1233.
[10]TAKASHI Oshio,AKIKO Sato Oishi,SATOSHI Shimizutani.Social security reforms and labour force participation of the elderly in Japan[J].Japanese Economic Review,2009:1-23.
[11]程杰.养老保障的劳动供给效应[J].经济研究,2014(10).
[12]张川川,John Giles,赵耀辉.新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给[J].经济学季刊,2014(1).
[13]MCGARRY K.Health and retirement:Do changes in health affect retirement expectations[J].Journal of Human Resources,2004,39:624-648.
[14]CAI L,KALB G.Health status and labour force participation:Evidence from Australia[J].Journal of Health Economics,2005,15:241-261.
[15]DISNEY R,EMMERSON C,WAKEFIELD M.Ill health and retirement in Britain:A panel date-based analysis[J].Journal of Health Economics,2006,25:621-649.
[16]ANDERSON K H,BURKHAUSER R V.The importance of the measure of health in empirical estimates of the labor supply of older men[J].Economics Letters,1984,16:375-380.
[17]KALWIJ A,VERMEULEN F.Health and labour force participation of older people in Europe:What do objective health indicators add to the analysis?[J].Journal of Health Economics,2008,17:619-638.
[18]MIAH M S,WILCOX-GK V.Do the sick retire early?Chronic Illness,Asset accumulation and early retirement[J].Applied Economics,2007,39:1921-1936.
[19]杨志海,麦尔旦·吐尔孙,王雅鹏.健康冲击对农村中老年人农业劳动供给的影响——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析[J].中国农村观察,2015(3).
[20]李琴,雷晓燕,赵耀辉.健康对中国中老年人劳动供给的影响[J].经济学季刊,2014(3).
[21]秦立建,秦雪征,蒋中一.健康对农民工外出务工劳动供给时间的影响[J].中国农村经济,2012(8).
[22]刘生龙.健康对农村居民劳动力参与的影响[J].中国农村经济,2008(8).
[23]潘杰,雷晓燕,刘国恩.医疗保险促进健康吗?——基于中国城镇居民基本医疗保险的实证分析[J].经济研究,2013(4).
[24]程令国,张晔.“新农合”:经济绩效还是健康绩效?[J].经济研究,2012(1).
[25]张哲元,陈华,李臻.健康保险能改善健康吗——“新农合”的健康绩效评估[J].社会保障研究,2015(4).
[26]王新军,郑超.医疗保险对老年人医疗支出与健康的影响[J].财经研究,2014(12).
[27]许庆,刘进.“新农合”制度对农村妇女劳动供给的影响[J].中国人口科学,2015(3).
[28]伊兰伯格,史密斯.现代劳动经济学——理论与公共政策[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[29]EUROPEAN COMMISSION.The european core health indicators(ECHI)shortlist of 88 health indicators identified by policy area[R].2012.
[30]洪岩壁.Logistic模型的系数比较问题及解决策略:一个综述[J].社会,2015(4).
(1)世界卫生组织最新的分类中将60岁以上个体定义为老年。
(2)事实上,农业劳动参与若定义为与非农劳动相同,并不改变最终的估计结果,但因为数据原因,若将农业劳动参与定义为大于52小时,那么参与农业劳动的样本比例过大,因此定义农业劳动为大于104小时。
(1)表1中非农劳动供给率、非农劳动供给时间统计的是用于非农劳动的3299个样本;农业劳动供给率、农业劳动供给时间统计的是用于农业劳动的2732个样本;其它自变量统计的是4189个总样本。故各自变量的情况在农业劳动和非农劳动样本中会略有不同,但没有较大变动。
(1)odds ratio的翻译参考洪岩壁(2015)[30]。
(2)P'(Y=1)/(1-P'(Y=1))÷P(Y=1)/(1-P(Y=1))=e3.03≈21,后文计算方法相同。
(1)文章中未详细给出的估计结果,读者若有兴趣均可向作者索要。