基于种植结构调整视角的化肥减施对策研究
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摘要
[目的]化肥过量使用是导致农业面源污染和农产品产地环境风险的重要因素。虽然已提前实现化肥使用量"零增长"目标,但"后零增长"时代,探寻巩固和推进化肥减施的有效对策仍是当务之急。[方法]文章运用灰色关联分析法与比较分析法,定量分析不同作物种植面积调整对化肥使用量的影响。[结果]化肥用量变化与果蔬类作物种植面积的调整密切相关。近年各省份化肥用量的变化趋势,也佐证了耗肥量大的果蔬类作物种植面积的消长,是助推我国化肥使用量增减变动的重要因素。[结论]种植业结构调整策略将成为控制化肥用量的重要途径,调减非优势区作物种植面积,构建生态友好型耕作制度,在生态脆弱地区开展休耕,综合运用国际农业资源和产品市场,保障短缺农产品供给等种植业结构优化措施,是推动化肥减量直接而有效的方式。同时,应注重转变传统施肥方式,推广化肥减施增效技术,强化绿色发展政策支持与引导,巩固化肥"零增长"成效。
Excessive use of chemical fertilizer is an important factor leading to agricultural surface pollution and environmental risk. In 2017,it achieved the goal of zero growth in fertilizer use in advance. How to consolidate and promote the " zero growth",and to find the effective countermeasures to continue to reduce the use of fertilizer?This issue should be analyzed as an urgency. The grey correlation analysis method and comparative analysis method were used to analyze quantitatively the effects of the change of crops planting area on the use of fertilizer. The results show that the chemical fertilizer dosage is closely related to the planting area of fruit and vegetable crops. The change trend of chemical fertilizer dosage in some regions shows the adjustment of planting area of fruit and vegetable crops is the important reason for the variation of fertilizer dosage in China. The adjustment of crops planting structure will become an important chance to reduce the use of fertilizer effectively. To lessen the crop planting area in weakness section,build eco-friendly farming system,practice the fallow in ecologically fragile regions,leverage the international agricultural resources and product market to solve the shortage supply problem of partial agricultural products,these measures for crops planting structure optimization will impel the usage of chemical fertilizer to decrease directly and effectively. At the same time,it is necessary to change the way of traditional fertilization,improve the utilization efficiency of fertilizers,popularize the technology of reducing the usage of fertilizers and increasing the efficiency of fertilizers,and set up policies to support and guide the green development of agriculture.Therefore,it is an effective measure to formulate the adjustment strategy of crops planting structure which is beneficial to reduce the demand of chemical fertilizer and consolidate the " zero growth" of chemical fertilizer.
Excessive use of chemical fertilizer is an important factor leading to agricultural surface pollution and environmental risk. In 2017,it achieved the goal of zero growth in fertilizer use in advance. How to consolidate and promote the " zero growth",and to find the effective countermeasures to continue to reduce the use of fertilizer?This issue should be analyzed as an urgency. The grey correlation analysis method and comparative analysis method were used to analyze quantitatively the effects of the change of crops planting area on the use of fertilizer. The results show that the chemical fertilizer dosage is closely related to the planting area of fruit and vegetable crops. The change trend of chemical fertilizer dosage in some regions shows the adjustment of planting area of fruit and vegetable crops is the important reason for the variation of fertilizer dosage in China. The adjustment of crops planting structure will become an important chance to reduce the use of fertilizer effectively. To lessen the crop planting area in weakness section,build eco-friendly farming system,practice the fallow in ecologically fragile regions,leverage the international agricultural resources and product market to solve the shortage supply problem of partial agricultural products,these measures for crops planting structure optimization will impel the usage of chemical fertilizer to decrease directly and effectively. At the same time,it is necessary to change the way of traditional fertilization,improve the utilization efficiency of fertilizers,popularize the technology of reducing the usage of fertilizers and increasing the efficiency of fertilizers,and set up policies to support and guide the green development of agriculture.Therefore,it is an effective measure to formulate the adjustment strategy of crops planting structure which is beneficial to reduce the demand of chemical fertilizer and consolidate the " zero growth" of chemical fertilizer.
引文
[1]尹昌斌,程磊磊,杨晓梅,等.生态文明型的农业可持续发展路径选择.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(1):15-21.
[2]于法稳.基于资源视角的农业供给侧结构性改革的路径研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):1-6,44.
[3]白由路.我国肥料产业面临的挑战与发展机遇.植物营养与肥料学报,2017,23(1):1-8.
[4]关于印发《生态县、生态市、生态省建设指标(修订稿)》的通知.国家环境保护总局文件.环发[2007]195号.http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/zj/wj/200910/t20091022_172492.htm
[5]杨增旭,韩洪云.化肥施用技术效率及影响因素---基于小麦和玉米的实证分析.中国农业大学学报,2011,16(1):140-147.
[6]李晶瑜.中国粮食生产的化肥利用效率及决定因素研究.合肥工业大学,2012.
[7]史常亮,朱俊峰,栾江.农户化肥施用技术效率及其影响因素分析---基于4省水稻种植户的调查数据.农林经济管理学报,2015(3):234-242.
[8]秦钟,章家恩,李逸勉,等.中国南方籼稻生产区的化肥利用效率及脱钩研究.农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):602-607.
[9]刘德伟,李强,宋孝航.中国粮食生产化肥施用效率分析---基于随机前沿生产函数.资源开发与市场,2017,33(4):401-407.
[10]张卫峰,季玥秀,马骥,等.中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析Ⅱ:种植结构.资源科学,2008,30(1):31-36.
[11]彭海英,史正涛,刘新有,等.农作物种植结构与农民收入及其对环境影响的分析.环境科学与管理,2008,33(2):44-48.
[12]颜璐.新疆农户化肥施用影响因素研究.乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2011.
[13]xin L J,Li X B,Tan M H.Temporal and regional variations of China’s fertilizer consumption by crops during1998-2008.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(4):643-652.
[14]Ebenstein Avraham.The consequences of industrialization:Evidence from water pollution and digestive cancers in China.Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(1):186-201.
[15]何浩然,张林秀,李强.农民施肥行为及农业面源污染研究.农业技术经济,2006(6):2-10.
[16]栾江,仇焕广,井月,等.我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测.自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1869-1878.
[17]龚琦,王雅鹏.我国农用化肥施用的影响因素---基于省际面板数据的实证分析.生态经济,2011(2):33-38,43.
[18]葛继红,周曙东.农业面源污染的经济影响因素分析---基于1978-2009年的江苏省数据.中国农村经济,2011(5):72-81.
[19]于婷婷.外出务工对农户家庭化肥投入决策影响分析.南京农业大学,2013.
[20]肖新成,谢德体.农户对过量施肥危害认知与规避意愿的实证分析---以涪陵榨菜种植为例.西南大学学报,2016,38(7):138-148.
[21]尹晓宇.河南省种植大户化肥施用行为及影响因素研究.东北林业大学,2016.
[22]Dave Abler.Why do farmers in China use so much fertilizer?[C].Chinese Economists Society 2015 Annual Conference,Chongqing,China.
(1)FAO统计数据计算的单位面积施肥量,是以耕地面积(含Arable land和permanent crops)为基数
(2)播种面积按照《国际统计年鉴》提供的land under permanent crops计算,目前可查询到的最新版《国际统计年鉴》(2017)与化肥施用折纯量对应的land under permanent crops数据更新至2014年,因此,播种面积计算的化肥施用量为2014年数据
(3)单位面积施用量=农用N、P、K肥施用总量/耕地面积,其中,各个国家农用N、P、K肥施用总量采用FAO数据库中该国的Agricultural Use Nutrient nitrogen N(total)、Nutrient phosphate P2O5(total)、Nutrient potash K2O(total)的合计数据,耕地面积采用FAO数据库中Arable land和land under permanent crops合计数据
(1)农用复合肥的快速增长与20世纪90年代开始实施的测土配方有关
(1)数据来源于国家统计局官网,化肥施用量选取历年农用化肥施用折纯量数据,主要作物种植面积分别选取粮食作物、蔬菜及果园种植面积数据
(1)具体计算过程及数据可与作者联系获取
(2)国家环保部2007年设定的生态县建设标准,化肥施用强度上限值为250kg/hm2
(1)基期数据为2016年
[2]于法稳.基于资源视角的农业供给侧结构性改革的路径研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):1-6,44.
[3]白由路.我国肥料产业面临的挑战与发展机遇.植物营养与肥料学报,2017,23(1):1-8.
[4]关于印发《生态县、生态市、生态省建设指标(修订稿)》的通知.国家环境保护总局文件.环发[2007]195号.http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/zj/wj/200910/t20091022_172492.htm
[5]杨增旭,韩洪云.化肥施用技术效率及影响因素---基于小麦和玉米的实证分析.中国农业大学学报,2011,16(1):140-147.
[6]李晶瑜.中国粮食生产的化肥利用效率及决定因素研究.合肥工业大学,2012.
[7]史常亮,朱俊峰,栾江.农户化肥施用技术效率及其影响因素分析---基于4省水稻种植户的调查数据.农林经济管理学报,2015(3):234-242.
[8]秦钟,章家恩,李逸勉,等.中国南方籼稻生产区的化肥利用效率及脱钩研究.农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):602-607.
[9]刘德伟,李强,宋孝航.中国粮食生产化肥施用效率分析---基于随机前沿生产函数.资源开发与市场,2017,33(4):401-407.
[10]张卫峰,季玥秀,马骥,等.中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析Ⅱ:种植结构.资源科学,2008,30(1):31-36.
[11]彭海英,史正涛,刘新有,等.农作物种植结构与农民收入及其对环境影响的分析.环境科学与管理,2008,33(2):44-48.
[12]颜璐.新疆农户化肥施用影响因素研究.乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2011.
[13]xin L J,Li X B,Tan M H.Temporal and regional variations of China’s fertilizer consumption by crops during1998-2008.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(4):643-652.
[14]Ebenstein Avraham.The consequences of industrialization:Evidence from water pollution and digestive cancers in China.Review of Economics and Statistics,2012,94(1):186-201.
[15]何浩然,张林秀,李强.农民施肥行为及农业面源污染研究.农业技术经济,2006(6):2-10.
[16]栾江,仇焕广,井月,等.我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测.自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1869-1878.
[17]龚琦,王雅鹏.我国农用化肥施用的影响因素---基于省际面板数据的实证分析.生态经济,2011(2):33-38,43.
[18]葛继红,周曙东.农业面源污染的经济影响因素分析---基于1978-2009年的江苏省数据.中国农村经济,2011(5):72-81.
[19]于婷婷.外出务工对农户家庭化肥投入决策影响分析.南京农业大学,2013.
[20]肖新成,谢德体.农户对过量施肥危害认知与规避意愿的实证分析---以涪陵榨菜种植为例.西南大学学报,2016,38(7):138-148.
[21]尹晓宇.河南省种植大户化肥施用行为及影响因素研究.东北林业大学,2016.
[22]Dave Abler.Why do farmers in China use so much fertilizer?[C].Chinese Economists Society 2015 Annual Conference,Chongqing,China.
(1)FAO统计数据计算的单位面积施肥量,是以耕地面积(含Arable land和permanent crops)为基数
(2)播种面积按照《国际统计年鉴》提供的land under permanent crops计算,目前可查询到的最新版《国际统计年鉴》(2017)与化肥施用折纯量对应的land under permanent crops数据更新至2014年,因此,播种面积计算的化肥施用量为2014年数据
(3)单位面积施用量=农用N、P、K肥施用总量/耕地面积,其中,各个国家农用N、P、K肥施用总量采用FAO数据库中该国的Agricultural Use Nutrient nitrogen N(total)、Nutrient phosphate P2O5(total)、Nutrient potash K2O(total)的合计数据,耕地面积采用FAO数据库中Arable land和land under permanent crops合计数据
(1)农用复合肥的快速增长与20世纪90年代开始实施的测土配方有关
(1)数据来源于国家统计局官网,化肥施用量选取历年农用化肥施用折纯量数据,主要作物种植面积分别选取粮食作物、蔬菜及果园种植面积数据
(1)具体计算过程及数据可与作者联系获取
(2)国家环保部2007年设定的生态县建设标准,化肥施用强度上限值为250kg/hm2
(1)基期数据为2016年