中美贸易摩擦对我国产业结构升级的影响及对策
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摘要
新一轮中美贸易摩擦呈现出全面性、战略性、长期性特征,对我国整体经济发展带来了很大的不确定性,鉴于经济发展以产业结构升级为核心内容,因此中美贸易摩擦与产业结构升级之间存在一定的关联。对我国产业结构升级而言,中美贸易摩擦是一把双刃剑,既能从冲击对外贸易结构、减少企业利润与投资、阻碍高新科技产业发展等多个层面抑制我国产业结构升级,又能从优化进出口商品结构、优胜劣汰、降低对美贸易依存度等多个层面促进我国产业结构升级。面对中美贸易摩擦不断加剧的外部环境和我国产业结构急需升级的内部需求,应从政策导向、科技创新、"一带一路"建设三个维度入手采取相应的对策。具体而言,面对美国对华贸易政策的转变,应在宏观经济政策上加以引导,并合理配置微观资源要素,策略性对抗与战略性妥协并举,构筑更加有质量的产业结构升级通道;面对美国对华高新技术产业的打压,应提高我国自主科技实力特别是关键与核心技术自主创新能力,这既是未来我国谈判最大的筹码,也是我国产业结构升级的必由之路;面对美国对华单边主义,应以积极主动的态度从容应对国际贸易摩擦,把握好"一带一路"建设机遇,推动我国产业结构升级。
This round of China-U.S. trade friction shows the characteristics of comprehensive,strategic and long-term,which brings great uncertainty to China's overall economic development. The economic development takes the upgrading of industrial structure as the core,so there is a certain correlation between the China-U.S. trade friction and the upgrading of industrial structure. China-U.S. trade friction is a double-edged sword for upgrading industrial structure in our country. It can not only have impact on foreign trade structure,reduce enterprises' profits and investment,and hinder the development of high and new technology industry to suppress the upgrading of industrial structure in our country,but also promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure through optimizing the import and export commodity structure,lowering the trade dependency,and so on.Under the external environment of increasing trade friction between China and the United States and the internal demand of urgent upgrading of China's industrial structure,the corresponding countermeasures should be formulated from such three strategic dimensions as policy orientation,scientific and technological innovation,and the Belt and Road Initiative. To be specific,facing the change of U.S. trade policy towards China,we should,first,strengthen guidance from the perspective of macroeconomic policy,rationally allocate micro-resource elements,combine strategic confrontation with strategic compromise,and build a high quality industrial structure upgrading channel;second,we should, in the face of the United States' crackdown on high-tech industries in China,enhance our independent scientific and technological strength,especially the ability of independent innovation in key and core technologies,which is not only the biggest bargaining chip for China in the future,but also the only way for China to upgrade the industrial structure;and third,we should,in the face of American unilateralism towards China,take an active attitude,calmly deal with the trade frictions brought by international trade,and use the opportunity brought by the Belt and Road Initiative to promote the basic path and strategy of China's industrial structural upgrading.
This round of China-U.S. trade friction shows the characteristics of comprehensive,strategic and long-term,which brings great uncertainty to China's overall economic development. The economic development takes the upgrading of industrial structure as the core,so there is a certain correlation between the China-U.S. trade friction and the upgrading of industrial structure. China-U.S. trade friction is a double-edged sword for upgrading industrial structure in our country. It can not only have impact on foreign trade structure,reduce enterprises' profits and investment,and hinder the development of high and new technology industry to suppress the upgrading of industrial structure in our country,but also promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure through optimizing the import and export commodity structure,lowering the trade dependency,and so on.Under the external environment of increasing trade friction between China and the United States and the internal demand of urgent upgrading of China's industrial structure,the corresponding countermeasures should be formulated from such three strategic dimensions as policy orientation,scientific and technological innovation,and the Belt and Road Initiative. To be specific,facing the change of U.S. trade policy towards China,we should,first,strengthen guidance from the perspective of macroeconomic policy,rationally allocate micro-resource elements,combine strategic confrontation with strategic compromise,and build a high quality industrial structure upgrading channel;second,we should, in the face of the United States' crackdown on high-tech industries in China,enhance our independent scientific and technological strength,especially the ability of independent innovation in key and core technologies,which is not only the biggest bargaining chip for China in the future,but also the only way for China to upgrade the industrial structure;and third,we should,in the face of American unilateralism towards China,take an active attitude,calmly deal with the trade frictions brought by international trade,and use the opportunity brought by the Belt and Road Initiative to promote the basic path and strategy of China's industrial structural upgrading.
引文
[1]人民论坛“特别策划”组.中美贸易摩擦十问[J].人民论坛,2018(12):12-13.
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[4]姚芳.中美利益摩擦背景下的我国产业结构调整[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[5]熊金月.我国对外贸易结构与产业结构的协同关系研究[D].南京:东南大学,2017.
[6]曲越,秦晓钰,黄海刚,等.中美贸易摩擦对中国产业与经济的影响——以2018年美国对华301调查报告为例[J].中国科技论坛,2018(5):128-135.
[7]马朝基.中国产业结构与中美贸易摩擦相互作用研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2015.
[8]姜峥睿.合作与摩擦:中美贸易关系发展研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2017.
[9]邓仲良.从中美贸易结构看中美贸易摩擦[J].中国流通经济,2018,32(10):80-92.
[10]马骥,马相东.“一带一路”建设与中国产业结构升级——基于出口贸易的视角[J].亚太经济,2017(5):31-37.
[2]隆国强.理性认识当前的中美贸易摩擦[N].人民日报,2018-08-29(7).
[3]沈坤荣,徐礼伯.中国产业结构升级:进展、阻力与对策[J].学海,2014(1):91-99.
[4]姚芳.中美利益摩擦背景下的我国产业结构调整[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[5]熊金月.我国对外贸易结构与产业结构的协同关系研究[D].南京:东南大学,2017.
[6]曲越,秦晓钰,黄海刚,等.中美贸易摩擦对中国产业与经济的影响——以2018年美国对华301调查报告为例[J].中国科技论坛,2018(5):128-135.
[7]马朝基.中国产业结构与中美贸易摩擦相互作用研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2015.
[8]姜峥睿.合作与摩擦:中美贸易关系发展研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2017.
[9]邓仲良.从中美贸易结构看中美贸易摩擦[J].中国流通经济,2018,32(10):80-92.
[10]马骥,马相东.“一带一路”建设与中国产业结构升级——基于出口贸易的视角[J].亚太经济,2017(5):31-37.