贸易政策不确定性研究动态综述
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摘要
贸易政策不确定性是近年来贸易政策研究领域的一个非常重要的前沿课题。本文在介绍其研究起源、理论机制、实证度量的基础上,按照其研究对象,全面梳理相关研究:一是关于贸易政策不确定性如何影响贸易自身的研究,包括贸易量、贸易价格与利润、贸易产品创新与质量、出口的国内附加值等;二是关于贸易政策不确定性如何影响其他经济变量的研究,包括微观方面的企业效率、企业储蓄、企业采购模式,以及宏观方面的经济增长、就业、外商投资等。文章最后分析了该领域未来研究的五个发展方向。
Trade policy uncertainty is a very important frontier in trade policy research in recent years. This paper summarizes its research origin,theoretical mechanism and empirical measurement,and then sketches relevant studies in terms of the research objectives:( 1) how trade policy uncertainty impacts international trade,including trade volume,price and markups,product innovation and quality,and domestic value-added share;( 2) how trade policy uncertainty impacts other economic variables,including micro-economic variables such as firm productivity,savings,and procurement modes,as well as macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, employment, and FDI.Finally,the paper points out some potential directions for forward research in this field.
Trade policy uncertainty is a very important frontier in trade policy research in recent years. This paper summarizes its research origin,theoretical mechanism and empirical measurement,and then sketches relevant studies in terms of the research objectives:( 1) how trade policy uncertainty impacts international trade,including trade volume,price and markups,product innovation and quality,and domestic value-added share;( 2) how trade policy uncertainty impacts other economic variables,including micro-economic variables such as firm productivity,savings,and procurement modes,as well as macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, employment, and FDI.Finally,the paper points out some potential directions for forward research in this field.
引文
[1]Handley K.Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2014,94(1):50-66.
[2]Handley K,Limao N.Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Firm Evidence.American Economic Journal-Policy[J],2015,7(4):189-222.
[3]Handley K,Limao N.Policy Uncertainty,Trade and Welfare:Theory and Evidence for China and the US[J].A-merican Economic Review,2017a,104(12):2731-2783.
[4]余智.国际贸易基础理论与研究前沿[M].上海:格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2015年9月,第一版,第13章,第306-325页.
[5]龚联梅,钱学锋.贸易政策不确定性理论与经验研究进展[J].经济学动态,2018(6):106-116.
[6]余淼杰,祝辉煌.贸易政策不确定性的度量、影响及其政策意义[J].长安大学学报社会科学版,2019(1):1-8.
[7]Bernanke B S.Irreversibility,Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98(1):85-106.
[8]Dixit A K.Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty[J].Journal of Political Economy,1989,97(3):620-638.
[9]Bloom N.Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(2):250-255.
[10]Rodrik D.Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,1991,36(2):229-242.
[11]Handley K,Limao N,Ludema R,Yu Z.Policy Credibility and Firm Imports:Theory and Evidence from Chinese Trade Reforms[Z].Working Paper,2018a.
[12]Handley K,Limao N,Ludema R,Yu Z.Policy Credibility and Firm Productivity:Theory and Evidence from Chinese Trade Reforms[Z].Working Paper,2018b.
[13]Baker S R et al.Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[14]Handley K,Limao N.Trade under T.R.U.M.P Policies[C].Bown C P(eds),Economics and Policy in the Age of Trump,CEPR Press,2017b.
[15]Lakatos C,Nilssion L.The EU-Korea FTA:Anticipation,Trade Policy Uncertainty and Impact[J].Review of World Economics,2016,153(1):1-20.
[16]Groppo V,Piermartini R.Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO[Z].WTO Staff Working Paper,2014,No.1437.
[17]Limao N,Maggi G.Uncertainty and Trade Agreements[J].American Economic Journal:Microeconomics,2015,7(4):1-20.
[18]Osnago A et al.Trade Policy Uncertainty as Barrier to Trade[Z].Working Paper,2015.
[19]Feng L,Li Z,Swenson D.Trade Policy Uncertainty and Exports:Evidence from China’s WTO Accession[J].Journal of International Economics,2017(108):20-36.
[20]Greenland A et al.Policy Uncertainty and the Margin of Trade[Z].Working Paper,2014.
[21]Carballo J et al.Economic and Policy Uncertainty:Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements[Z].NBERWorking Paper,2018,No.4368.
[22]钱学锋,龚联梅.贸易政策不确定性、区域贸易协定与中国制造业出口[J].中国工业经济,2017(10):106-116.
[23]韦茜.贸易政策不确定性对我国出口影响研究[J].价格月刊,2018(7):46-50.
[24]汪亚楠,周梦天.贸易政策不确定性、关税减免与出口产品分布[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):127-142.
[25]黄亚钧,汪亚楠.贸易自由化与企业出口表现---基于贸易政策不确定性的视角[J].经济问题探索,2017(10):106-112.
[26]郭苏文.中国贸易政策的稳定性与出口效应的互动研究[J].天津财经大学学报,2013(12):27-37.
[27]郭苏文,黄汉民.中国贸易政策的制度质量分析---基于制度有效性和稳定性视角[J].经济经纬,2014,31(6):52-57.
[28]熊锋,黄汉民.贸易政策的制度质量分析---基于制度稳定性视角的研究评述[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2009(5):53-59.
[29]徐卫章,李胜旗.贸易政策不确定性与中国出口企业加成率---基于企业异质性视角的分析[J].商业研究,2016(12):150-160.
[30]汪亚楠.贸易政策不确定性与出口企业利润变动---基于中美贸易的实证分析[J].当代财经,2018(5):91-101.
[31]佟家栋,李胜旗.贸易政策不确定性对出口企业产品创新的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):25-32.
[32]苏理梅,彭冬冬,兰宜生.贸易自由化是如何影响我国出口产品质量的---基于贸易政策不确定性下降的视角[J].财经研究,2016,42(4):61-70.
[33]张平南,徐阳,徐小聪,段艳艳.贸易政策不确定性与企业出口国内附加值:理论与中国经验[J].宏观经济研究,2018(1):57-68.
[34]Brandt L,Biesebroeck J Van,Zhang Y.Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[35]Amiti M,Konings J.Trade Liberalization,Intermediate Inputs,and Productivity:Evidence from Indonesia[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(5):1611-1638.
[36]Yu M.Processing Trade,Tariff Reduction,and Firm Productivity:Evidence from Chinese Firms[J].Economic Journal,2015,125(585):943-988.
[37]Olley G S,Pakes A.The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry[J].Econometrica,1996,64(6):1263-1297.
[38]Schott P et al.Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains[Z].Working Paper,2017.
[39]毛其淋,许家云.贸易政策不确定性与企业储蓄行为---基于中国加入WTO的准自然实验[J].管理世界,2018(5):10-27.
[40]Pierce J R,Schott P K,The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment[J].American Economic Review,2016,108(7):1632-62.
[41]Shepotylo O,Stuckatz J.Quantitative Analysis of Policy Uncertainty:FDI and Trade of Ukrainian Manufacturing Firms[Z].Working Paper,2017.
[42]Novy D,Taylor A M.Trade and Uncertainty[Z].NBER Working Paper,2014,No.19941.
[43]李国刚,余智.中国应抓紧对美和谈机会对美止战止损[N].联合早报,2019年9月22日.
[44]Grossman J,Helpman E,Protection for Sale[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(4):833-850.
[45]Ludema R,Mayda A M,Yu M,Yu Z.Endogeneous Trade Policy in Global Value Chains:Evidence from Chinese Micro-level Data[Z].Working Paper,2018.
[2]Handley K,Limao N.Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Firm Evidence.American Economic Journal-Policy[J],2015,7(4):189-222.
[3]Handley K,Limao N.Policy Uncertainty,Trade and Welfare:Theory and Evidence for China and the US[J].A-merican Economic Review,2017a,104(12):2731-2783.
[4]余智.国际贸易基础理论与研究前沿[M].上海:格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2015年9月,第一版,第13章,第306-325页.
[5]龚联梅,钱学锋.贸易政策不确定性理论与经验研究进展[J].经济学动态,2018(6):106-116.
[6]余淼杰,祝辉煌.贸易政策不确定性的度量、影响及其政策意义[J].长安大学学报社会科学版,2019(1):1-8.
[7]Bernanke B S.Irreversibility,Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98(1):85-106.
[8]Dixit A K.Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty[J].Journal of Political Economy,1989,97(3):620-638.
[9]Bloom N.Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(2):250-255.
[10]Rodrik D.Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,1991,36(2):229-242.
[11]Handley K,Limao N,Ludema R,Yu Z.Policy Credibility and Firm Imports:Theory and Evidence from Chinese Trade Reforms[Z].Working Paper,2018a.
[12]Handley K,Limao N,Ludema R,Yu Z.Policy Credibility and Firm Productivity:Theory and Evidence from Chinese Trade Reforms[Z].Working Paper,2018b.
[13]Baker S R et al.Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[14]Handley K,Limao N.Trade under T.R.U.M.P Policies[C].Bown C P(eds),Economics and Policy in the Age of Trump,CEPR Press,2017b.
[15]Lakatos C,Nilssion L.The EU-Korea FTA:Anticipation,Trade Policy Uncertainty and Impact[J].Review of World Economics,2016,153(1):1-20.
[16]Groppo V,Piermartini R.Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO[Z].WTO Staff Working Paper,2014,No.1437.
[17]Limao N,Maggi G.Uncertainty and Trade Agreements[J].American Economic Journal:Microeconomics,2015,7(4):1-20.
[18]Osnago A et al.Trade Policy Uncertainty as Barrier to Trade[Z].Working Paper,2015.
[19]Feng L,Li Z,Swenson D.Trade Policy Uncertainty and Exports:Evidence from China’s WTO Accession[J].Journal of International Economics,2017(108):20-36.
[20]Greenland A et al.Policy Uncertainty and the Margin of Trade[Z].Working Paper,2014.
[21]Carballo J et al.Economic and Policy Uncertainty:Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements[Z].NBERWorking Paper,2018,No.4368.
[22]钱学锋,龚联梅.贸易政策不确定性、区域贸易协定与中国制造业出口[J].中国工业经济,2017(10):106-116.
[23]韦茜.贸易政策不确定性对我国出口影响研究[J].价格月刊,2018(7):46-50.
[24]汪亚楠,周梦天.贸易政策不确定性、关税减免与出口产品分布[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):127-142.
[25]黄亚钧,汪亚楠.贸易自由化与企业出口表现---基于贸易政策不确定性的视角[J].经济问题探索,2017(10):106-112.
[26]郭苏文.中国贸易政策的稳定性与出口效应的互动研究[J].天津财经大学学报,2013(12):27-37.
[27]郭苏文,黄汉民.中国贸易政策的制度质量分析---基于制度有效性和稳定性视角[J].经济经纬,2014,31(6):52-57.
[28]熊锋,黄汉民.贸易政策的制度质量分析---基于制度稳定性视角的研究评述[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2009(5):53-59.
[29]徐卫章,李胜旗.贸易政策不确定性与中国出口企业加成率---基于企业异质性视角的分析[J].商业研究,2016(12):150-160.
[30]汪亚楠.贸易政策不确定性与出口企业利润变动---基于中美贸易的实证分析[J].当代财经,2018(5):91-101.
[31]佟家栋,李胜旗.贸易政策不确定性对出口企业产品创新的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(6):25-32.
[32]苏理梅,彭冬冬,兰宜生.贸易自由化是如何影响我国出口产品质量的---基于贸易政策不确定性下降的视角[J].财经研究,2016,42(4):61-70.
[33]张平南,徐阳,徐小聪,段艳艳.贸易政策不确定性与企业出口国内附加值:理论与中国经验[J].宏观经济研究,2018(1):57-68.
[34]Brandt L,Biesebroeck J Van,Zhang Y.Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[35]Amiti M,Konings J.Trade Liberalization,Intermediate Inputs,and Productivity:Evidence from Indonesia[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(5):1611-1638.
[36]Yu M.Processing Trade,Tariff Reduction,and Firm Productivity:Evidence from Chinese Firms[J].Economic Journal,2015,125(585):943-988.
[37]Olley G S,Pakes A.The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry[J].Econometrica,1996,64(6):1263-1297.
[38]Schott P et al.Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains[Z].Working Paper,2017.
[39]毛其淋,许家云.贸易政策不确定性与企业储蓄行为---基于中国加入WTO的准自然实验[J].管理世界,2018(5):10-27.
[40]Pierce J R,Schott P K,The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment[J].American Economic Review,2016,108(7):1632-62.
[41]Shepotylo O,Stuckatz J.Quantitative Analysis of Policy Uncertainty:FDI and Trade of Ukrainian Manufacturing Firms[Z].Working Paper,2017.
[42]Novy D,Taylor A M.Trade and Uncertainty[Z].NBER Working Paper,2014,No.19941.
[43]李国刚,余智.中国应抓紧对美和谈机会对美止战止损[N].联合早报,2019年9月22日.
[44]Grossman J,Helpman E,Protection for Sale[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(4):833-850.
[45]Ludema R,Mayda A M,Yu M,Yu Z.Endogeneous Trade Policy in Global Value Chains:Evidence from Chinese Micro-level Data[Z].Working Paper,2018.