基于信息可替代的有色金属产业安全指标体系构建与评估
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摘要
根据我国有色金属产业的特点提出了适用于评价我国有色金属产业安全的指标体系,并从信息可替代的视角对指标体系进行了修正。根据修正后的指标体系对我国2001～2015年间的有色金属产业安全状况进行了评估。研究发现:(1)利润率、产业国际竞争指数、市场增长率、研发投入强度、对外依存度、国内资本份额是评价我国有色金属产业安全的核心指标;(2)我国有色金属产业安全从"十五"到"十二五"处在不安全的状态,研发投入强度常年偏低,进口对外依存度一直过高是造成这种状况的主要原因;(3)利润率、市场增长率和出口对外依存度是主导我国2001～2015年有色金属产业安全度变化的因素。
On the basis of reviewing the previous theory of industrial safety,this paper puts forward an index system for evaluating the safety of non-ferrous metal industry in China based on the characteristics of non-ferrous metal industry in our country,and revising the index system from the perspective of information substitution.Based on the revised index system,the article evaluates the safety situation of nonferrous metals industry in China in 2001～2015.Results show that:(1)profit rate,industrial international competition index,market growth rate,R & D input intensity,foreign dependence degree,domestic capital share are the key indexes to evaluate the safety of non-ferrous metal industry in China;(2)Chinese non-ferrous metal industry safety is in the unsafe state from 2001～2015;(3)profit rate,market growth rate and external dependence on exports are the main driving factors leading to the change of Chinese non-ferrous metal industry's safety degree in the past 2001～2015 years.
On the basis of reviewing the previous theory of industrial safety,this paper puts forward an index system for evaluating the safety of non-ferrous metal industry in China based on the characteristics of non-ferrous metal industry in our country,and revising the index system from the perspective of information substitution.Based on the revised index system,the article evaluates the safety situation of nonferrous metals industry in China in 2001～2015.Results show that:(1)profit rate,industrial international competition index,market growth rate,R & D input intensity,foreign dependence degree,domestic capital share are the key indexes to evaluate the safety of non-ferrous metal industry in China;(2)Chinese non-ferrous metal industry safety is in the unsafe state from 2001～2015;(3)profit rate,market growth rate and external dependence on exports are the main driving factors leading to the change of Chinese non-ferrous metal industry's safety degree in the past 2001～2015 years.
引文
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[14]陈洪海.基于信息可替代性的评价指标筛选研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(10):17-22.
[15]付允,刘怡君.指标体系有效性的RST评价方法及应用[J].管理评论,2009,21(7):91-95.
[2]Tiess G.Minerals Policy in Europe:Some Recent Developments[J].Resources Policy,2010,35(3):190-198.
[3]Habib K,Hamelin L,Wenzel H.A Dynamic Perspective of the Geopolitical Supply Risk of Metals[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,133:850-858.
[4]Gemechu E D,Helbig C,Sonnemann G,et al.Import-based Indicator for the Geopolitical Supply Risk of Raw Materials in Life Cycle Sustainability Assessments[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2016,20(1):154-165.
[5]Kim P,Ando T.Oil and Metal Price Movements and BRIC Macro-economy:An Empirical Analysis[J].International Journal of Business&Globalisation,2012,8(2):187-206.
[6]Zhang Y J,Zhang L.Interpreting theCrude Oil Price Movements:Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model[J].Applied Energy,2015,143:96-109.
[7]Hu C,Liu X,Pan B,et al.The Impact of International Price Shocks on China's Nonferrous Metal Companies:A Case Study of Copper[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,168:254-262.
[8]朱建民,魏大鹏.我国产业安全评价指标体系的再构建与实证研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(7):146-153.
[9]朱丽萌.中国农产品进出口与农业产业安全预警分析[J].财经科学,2007(6):111-116.
[10]王丽,王苏生,黄建宏.我国零售业产业安全研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2008(6):61-64.
[11]史欣向,李善民,王满四,等.“新常态”下的产业安全评价体系重构与实证研究——以中国高技术产业为例[J].中国软科学,2015(7):111-126.
[12]Wang J,Zhao T.Regional Energy-environmental Performance and Investment Strategy for China's Non-ferrous Metals Industry:A Non-radial DEA Based Analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,163:187-201.
[13]谭飞燕,张力,李孟刚.低碳经济视角下我国产业安全指标体系构建[J].统计与决策,2016(16):57-60.
[14]陈洪海.基于信息可替代性的评价指标筛选研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(10):17-22.
[15]付允,刘怡君.指标体系有效性的RST评价方法及应用[J].管理评论,2009,21(7):91-95.