贫困购买力平价和地区贫困线:理论与测算
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摘要
贫困测度一直是经济统计领域非常重要的问题。以2015年全国31个省(区、市)共69种规格品为样本,依据贫困购买力平价理论按两步法测算了我国地区贫困购买力平价,比较不同地区贫困人群面对的价格水平差异。研究表明,GEKS、GK、WCPD和T觟rnqvist指数等四种方法测算结果非常接近,但各自分布特征存在差异。以北京为基准,上海、广东、浙江、西藏、甘肃等16个省份贫困购买力平价大于1,而黑龙江、辽宁、宁夏、河南、贵州等14个省份贫困购买力平价小于1。采用外推法估算1995～2014年的地区贫困购买力平价,发现我国地区贫困购买力平价大体呈"先降后升,然后趋稳"的态势,不同地区之间呈现明显的价格收敛特征。基于贫困购买力平价测算的地区贫困线差异显著,贫困购买力平价越大,地区贫困线越高。可见,采用全国统一的贫困标准并不合理,更科学的做法是参考价格水平差异设置地区贫困线。
Poverty measurement is always an important issue in the economic statistics. This paper employed a sample of 69 product specifications covering 31 provinces of China in 2015 and calculated the regional poverty-specific PPPs with a two-step method according to the poverty PPP theory, in order to compare the price difference for the poor families over regions. The results show that the estimates of the four methods including GEKS, GK, WCPD and T觟rnqvist index are very close, but their distribution exists some different characteristics. With Beijing as the base region, the poverty PPPs of 16 provinces including Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Tibet and Gansu are bigger than 1, while those of 14 provinces including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Ningxia, Henan and Guizhou are smaller than 1. The regional poverty PPPs of1995-2014 years are extrapolated based on the results of 2015, and it is found that the regional poverty PPPs in China usually decreased first and then rose before being stable. Obviously, there is a phenomenon of price convergence among different regions. When the regional poverty lines(RPL) are calculated based on the estimates of regional poverty PPPs, the difference of RPLs is very significant and usually, the RPLs are higher when the poverty PPPs are larger. Therefore, it is not reasonable to adopt the unified national poverty line(NPL), and a more scientific way is to estimate the regional poverty lines based on the spatial price difference.
Poverty measurement is always an important issue in the economic statistics. This paper employed a sample of 69 product specifications covering 31 provinces of China in 2015 and calculated the regional poverty-specific PPPs with a two-step method according to the poverty PPP theory, in order to compare the price difference for the poor families over regions. The results show that the estimates of the four methods including GEKS, GK, WCPD and T觟rnqvist index are very close, but their distribution exists some different characteristics. With Beijing as the base region, the poverty PPPs of 16 provinces including Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Tibet and Gansu are bigger than 1, while those of 14 provinces including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Ningxia, Henan and Guizhou are smaller than 1. The regional poverty PPPs of1995-2014 years are extrapolated based on the results of 2015, and it is found that the regional poverty PPPs in China usually decreased first and then rose before being stable. Obviously, there is a phenomenon of price convergence among different regions. When the regional poverty lines(RPL) are calculated based on the estimates of regional poverty PPPs, the difference of RPLs is very significant and usually, the RPLs are higher when the poverty PPPs are larger. Therefore, it is not reasonable to adopt the unified national poverty line(NPL), and a more scientific way is to estimate the regional poverty lines based on the spatial price difference.
引文
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[3]ADB.Research study on poverty purchasing power parities for selected countries in Asia and the Pacific[M].Manila:The Asian Development Bank(ADB),2008:21-35.
[4]王祖祥.贫困评价与贫困指数[J].经济评论,2000(1):98-104.
[5]HULME,D.Global poverty:how global governance is failing the poor[M].Abingdon:Routledge,2010:20-35.
[6]WORLD BANK.From poor areas to poor people:China’s evolving poverty reduction agendaan assessment of poverty and inequality in China[M].Washington:The World Bank,2009:58-88.
[7]DUPRIEZ O.Building a household consumption database for the calculation of poverty PPPs:technical note[EB/OL].(2007-03-01)[2018-12-20].Working Paper,The World Bank.http://worldbank.org.
[8]DEATON A.Price indexes,inequality,and the measurement of world poverty[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(1):5-34.
[9]ATEN B H,MENEZES T.Poverty price levels:an application to Brazilian metropolitan areas[C].World Bank ICP Conference,Washington:The World Bank,March 11-15,2002.
[10]Heston A.Some Problems of Comparing Poverty Levels Across Countries[C].Paper presented at Seminar on Use of Purchasing Power Parities,Luxembourg:Eurostat,November 1,1986.
[11]BIRU Y,AHMAD S.Sensitivity of poverty lines to choices of PPPs[EB/OL].(1994-02-03)[2018-12-20].World Bank Working Paper,November.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247488102_Sensitivity_of_Poverty_Lines_to_Choices_of_PPPs.
[12]ATEN B H.Cities in Brazil:an interarea price comparison,in A.Heston and R.Lipsey(eds),International and interarea comparisons of income,output and prices[C]Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1999:211-229.
[13]RAO V.Price heterogeneity and“real”inequality:a case-study of prices and poverty in rural south India[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2000,46(2):201-212.
[14]张全红,张建华.中国农村贫困变动:1981~2005---基于不同贫困线标准和指数的对比分析[J].统计研究,2010(2):28-35.
[15]GONG C H,MENG X.Regional price differences in urban China 1986-2001:Estimation and Implication[EB/OL].(2008-08-04)[2018-12-20].IZA Discussion Paper No.3621,Bonn:Institute for the Study of Labor.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1198691.
[16]CHEN S,RAVALLION M,China is poorer than we thought,but no less successful in the fight against poverty[EB/OL].(2008-05-01)[2018-12-20].Policy Research Working Paper Series 4621,The World Bank.https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4621.html.
[17]毛琳.基于购买力平价下的区域贫困程度研究[D].重庆:重庆工商大学,2012:18-37.
[18]胡雪梅.贫困购买力平价测度方法研究综述[J].统计与决策,2016(21):80-82.
[19]RAO D S P,RAMBALDI A,DORAN H.Extrapolation of purchasing power parities using multiple benchmarks and auxiliary information:a new approach[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2010,56(s1):59-98.
[2]张迎春.构建贫困购买力平价的两个关键点[J].统计与信息论坛,2007(2):34-39.
[3]ADB.Research study on poverty purchasing power parities for selected countries in Asia and the Pacific[M].Manila:The Asian Development Bank(ADB),2008:21-35.
[4]王祖祥.贫困评价与贫困指数[J].经济评论,2000(1):98-104.
[5]HULME,D.Global poverty:how global governance is failing the poor[M].Abingdon:Routledge,2010:20-35.
[6]WORLD BANK.From poor areas to poor people:China’s evolving poverty reduction agendaan assessment of poverty and inequality in China[M].Washington:The World Bank,2009:58-88.
[7]DUPRIEZ O.Building a household consumption database for the calculation of poverty PPPs:technical note[EB/OL].(2007-03-01)[2018-12-20].Working Paper,The World Bank.http://worldbank.org.
[8]DEATON A.Price indexes,inequality,and the measurement of world poverty[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(1):5-34.
[9]ATEN B H,MENEZES T.Poverty price levels:an application to Brazilian metropolitan areas[C].World Bank ICP Conference,Washington:The World Bank,March 11-15,2002.
[10]Heston A.Some Problems of Comparing Poverty Levels Across Countries[C].Paper presented at Seminar on Use of Purchasing Power Parities,Luxembourg:Eurostat,November 1,1986.
[11]BIRU Y,AHMAD S.Sensitivity of poverty lines to choices of PPPs[EB/OL].(1994-02-03)[2018-12-20].World Bank Working Paper,November.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247488102_Sensitivity_of_Poverty_Lines_to_Choices_of_PPPs.
[12]ATEN B H.Cities in Brazil:an interarea price comparison,in A.Heston and R.Lipsey(eds),International and interarea comparisons of income,output and prices[C]Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1999:211-229.
[13]RAO V.Price heterogeneity and“real”inequality:a case-study of prices and poverty in rural south India[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2000,46(2):201-212.
[14]张全红,张建华.中国农村贫困变动:1981~2005---基于不同贫困线标准和指数的对比分析[J].统计研究,2010(2):28-35.
[15]GONG C H,MENG X.Regional price differences in urban China 1986-2001:Estimation and Implication[EB/OL].(2008-08-04)[2018-12-20].IZA Discussion Paper No.3621,Bonn:Institute for the Study of Labor.https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1198691.
[16]CHEN S,RAVALLION M,China is poorer than we thought,but no less successful in the fight against poverty[EB/OL].(2008-05-01)[2018-12-20].Policy Research Working Paper Series 4621,The World Bank.https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4621.html.
[17]毛琳.基于购买力平价下的区域贫困程度研究[D].重庆:重庆工商大学,2012:18-37.
[18]胡雪梅.贫困购买力平价测度方法研究综述[J].统计与决策,2016(21):80-82.
[19]RAO D S P,RAMBALDI A,DORAN H.Extrapolation of purchasing power parities using multiple benchmarks and auxiliary information:a new approach[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2010,56(s1):59-98.