社会融资规模与货币供应量:货币政策中介目标有效性分析——基于拔靴滚动窗口因果关系检验
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摘要
基于2002—2018年的季度数据,运用拔靴滚动窗口因果关系方法,实证检验社会融资规模与货币供应量(M2)在不同经济时期作为货币政策目标的有效性。研究结果显示:在经济运行平稳时期,货币供应总量在未来的很长一段时间内,仍然是我国货币政策中介目标的主流标准,而社会融资规模在经济下行周期中具有较高的有效性,可以与货币供应总量相互补充,相辅相成,形成以货币供应总量为主、社会融资规模为补充的货币政策中介目标体系。社会融资规模不仅可以在经济平稳运行时期作为货币供应总量的参考因素,也可以在经济处于下行时期作为促进我国实体经济复苏和经济高质量发展的一项重要指标。因此,应依然坚持以广义货币供应量为主的货币政策中介目标;建立包括社会融资规模的货币政策中介目标体系;优化金融生态环境,切实加大和提高金融支持与服务实体经济的力度和效率;以社会融资规模为基础循序渐进推动利率市场化进程。
Based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2018, bootstrap rolling window causality test is used to test the effectiveness of social financing scale and M2 as intermediate target of monetary policy during different economic periods. The result shows that during the stable cycle of economy, M2 is still the mainstream standard of China's intermediate target of monetary policy for a long time in the future, while the social financing scale is more effective in the economic downturn, which can be used as a supplement to M2. In this way, it is possible to construct an intermediate target of monetary policy system based on M2 and the social financing scale. The social financing scale can be used not onlyas a reference factor for the total money supply during the stable cycle of economic operation, but also as an important indicator for promoting the recovery of China's real economy and high-quality economic development during the economy downturn. Therefore, we should still adhere to M2-based intermediary targets of monetary policy, establish an intermediary targets of monetary policy system including social financing scale,optimize the financial ecological environment in order to improve the strength and efficiency of financial support and service of the real economy, and gradually promote the interest rate marketization process based on the social financing scale.
Based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2018, bootstrap rolling window causality test is used to test the effectiveness of social financing scale and M2 as intermediate target of monetary policy during different economic periods. The result shows that during the stable cycle of economy, M2 is still the mainstream standard of China's intermediate target of monetary policy for a long time in the future, while the social financing scale is more effective in the economic downturn, which can be used as a supplement to M2. In this way, it is possible to construct an intermediate target of monetary policy system based on M2 and the social financing scale. The social financing scale can be used not onlyas a reference factor for the total money supply during the stable cycle of economic operation, but also as an important indicator for promoting the recovery of China's real economy and high-quality economic development during the economy downturn. Therefore, we should still adhere to M2-based intermediary targets of monetary policy, establish an intermediary targets of monetary policy system including social financing scale,optimize the financial ecological environment in order to improve the strength and efficiency of financial support and service of the real economy, and gradually promote the interest rate marketization process based on the social financing scale.
引文
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[2]RG King’R Levine.Finance entrepreneurship and growth Theory and evidence[J].Journal of Monetary economics,1993,(03):513-542.
[3]王胜春.社会融资规模能替代货币供应量吗?[J].投资北京,2011(2)24-25.
[4]李建军,戴应亭,陈静文.社会融资总量与宏观金融调控[J].新疆财经,2012(2):18-25.
[5]余永定.一本颇具特色和创新的货币政策新实践专著——简评盛松成等著《社会融资规模理论与实践》[J].金融研究,2014(3):207.
[6]陈小亮,陈惟,陈彦斌.社会融资规模能否成为货币政策中介目标——基于金融创新视角的实证研究[J].经济学动态,2016(9):69-79.
[7]盛松成.社会融资规模与货币政策传导[J].金融研究,2012(10):1-14.
[8]龙薇,蒋丽平.基于VAR模型的社会融资规模与货币政策传导研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2015(9):41-52.
[9]盛松成.社会融资规模与货币政策传导[J].中国社会科学,2016(12):60-82.
[10]李玉蓉,徐宁.我国货币中介指标有效性的实时对比——兼论社会融资规模的实用性[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2018(4):23-30.
[11]刘金全,艾昕.新常态下社会融资规模与M2背离对实体经济的影响机制分析[J].当代经济学,2018(9):21-27.
[12]牛嵩.中国社会融资规模与货币供应关系研究——基于货币政策传导机制理论与实践[D].沈阳:辽宁大学,2017.
[13]张春生.社会融资规模适合作为货币政策中介目标吗[J].上海金融,2013(3):52-56.
[14]张明.中国影子银行:界定、成因、风险与对策[J].国际经济评论,2013(3):82-92.
[15]陈雨露.社会融资规模与金融业综合统计[J].中国金融,2016(9):9-11.
[16]周先平,冀志斌,李标.社会融资规模适合作为货币政策中间目标吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013(10):79-93.
[17]杜晓华.我国社会融资对经济增长的作用研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2016.
[18]杨艳,杜知桓.利率对社会融资规模的影响分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2013(1):125-128.
[19]张原,王珍珍,陈玉菲.社会融资规模与实体经济增长的联动性研究[J].财政研究,2014(11):54-57.