MJO活动对广西6月阶段性降水的影响研究
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摘要
使用1961~2013年广西80个气象观测站的日降水资料和NOAA OLR、NCEP/NCAR风场、高度场再分析资料。结果表明:当MJO第10位相时广西降水偏多,第1位相时偏少,第2位相时偏多,第3位相时大部偏少的周期性分布特征。原因可能为副热带高压随着MJO向东移动而减弱东移,而且影响着中高纬度地区的波列分布和转播,当MJO对流位于第10、2位相时,形成的槽脊位置有利冷空气南下影响广西,使降水发生;在MJO对流所处位相向东移动过程中,当位于印度洋西部时孟加拉湾水汽输送到达广西最强,随着逐渐向东减弱,当位于第2位相以后,广西上空水汽输送来源转为南海地区。从不同位相来看,当MJO对流位相距离广西稍远时,MJO不同位相时哈德莱上升支的主要区别在上升气流高度略有不同和高空的强上升气流区分布范围不同。
Based on the daily precipitation data, NOAA OLR data and NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data during 1961-2013, The results show that: there is a periodic distribution that the more rainfall in Guangxi when the MJO convection center is located in phase 10, and less rainfall in phase 1, and more in phase 2, and less in phase 3. The dynamical mechanism of that may be the moving eastward of MJO convection center leads to the subtropical high shift eastward and to be weakened, and also affects the distribution and broadcast of the wave in middle and high latitudes, when MJO convection center is located in phase 10, 2, the trough and ridge position are favorable of the cold air southward and the precipitation occurred in Guangxi. When MJO convection center move eastward to India Ocean and is located over the western Bay of Bengal, the strongest water vapor transport to Guangxi. The water vapor from South China Sea transport to Guangxi when MJO convection center move eastward and is located in phase 2. The slightly difference of the height and the altitude of the strong updraft of Hadley updraft when the MJO convection center far from Guangxi.
Based on the daily precipitation data, NOAA OLR data and NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data during 1961-2013, The results show that: there is a periodic distribution that the more rainfall in Guangxi when the MJO convection center is located in phase 10, and less rainfall in phase 1, and more in phase 2, and less in phase 3. The dynamical mechanism of that may be the moving eastward of MJO convection center leads to the subtropical high shift eastward and to be weakened, and also affects the distribution and broadcast of the wave in middle and high latitudes, when MJO convection center is located in phase 10, 2, the trough and ridge position are favorable of the cold air southward and the precipitation occurred in Guangxi. When MJO convection center move eastward to India Ocean and is located over the western Bay of Bengal, the strongest water vapor transport to Guangxi. The water vapor from South China Sea transport to Guangxi when MJO convection center move eastward and is located in phase 2. The slightly difference of the height and the altitude of the strong updraft of Hadley updraft when the MJO convection center far from Guangxi.
引文
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[23]邱明宇,吴慧,王尚荣.ENSO事件对热带低纬大气振荡的调频作用[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(2):8-11.
[24]林开平,李凌.“94.12”广西大范围暴雨过程的物理量特征分析[J].广西气象,1998,19(2):11-13.
[25]黄治逢.一次广西大范围暴雨过程分析[J].广西气象,2005,26(4):68-69.
[2]Jones C,Carvalho M V,Higgins R W,et al.A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies[J].J.Climate,2004,17(11):
[3]丁一汇,梁萍.基于MJO的延伸预报[J].气象,2010,36(7):111-122.
[4]王黎娟,卢珊,管兆勇等.台风“榴莲”陆上维持及暴雨增幅的大尺度环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):511-520.
[5]陶诗言,卫捷.夏季中国南方流域性致洪暴雨与季风涌的关系[J].气象,2007,33(3):10-18.
[6]琚建华,赵而旭.东亚夏季风区的低频振荡对长江中下游旱涝的影响[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(2):163-171.
[7]琚建华,孙丹,吕俊梅.东亚季风涌对我国东部大尺度降水过程的影响分析[J].大气科学,2007,31(6):1 029-1 039.
[8]鲍名.两次华南持续性暴雨过程中热带西太平洋对流异常作用的比较[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(1):27-35.
[9]Lina Zhang,Bizheng Wang and Qingcun Zeng.Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillationon Summer Rainfall in Southeast China[J].J.Climate,2009,22:201-216.
[10]王远超,黎玲,胡恒,等.广西东南部2008年6月持续强降水成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2009,30(S):74-76.
[11]吕醒佳.1998年6月16-27日连续性强降水过程分析[J].广东气象,1999,21(3):28-30.
[12]覃丽,寿绍文,冯晓玲,等.一次“北涡南槽”型广西强降水过程的数值模拟[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(S):49-51.
[13]曾雪飞,钟志成.一次连续性强降水过程形成的原因[J].广东气象,2008,30(1):59-60.
[14]蒙伟光.一次连续性暴雨天气过程的分析[J].广东气象,1999,21(2):11-13.
[15]覃丽,伍文辉.广西一次强降水天气成因初探[J].广西气象,2005,26(3):12-15.
[16]程正泉,项颂翔,黄晓莹,等.“凡亚比”登陆引发粤西大范围强降水的对流降水分析[J].广东气象,2013,35(1):14-17.
[17]韦丹宜.试析“碧利斯”造成广西大暴雨的原因[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(S):141-142.
[18]高安宁,谭强敏.“碧利斯”引发广西异常暴雨的成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(2):7-10.
[19]刘晓梅,陈见,李向红,等.一次广西东部季风爆发前夕短时强降水分析[J].气象研究与应用,2014,35(2):14-18.
[20]颜文胜,周伟隆.2002年7月中旬后期粤东地区连续强降水分析[J].广东气象,2003,25(2):18-20.
[21]胡娅敏,罗晓玲,陈新光.2009年广东汛期降水空间分布不均的气候成因[J].广东气象,2010,32(2):4-7.
[22]林华立,杨锦青,叶朗明.南海夏季风与台山汛期降水的关系[J].广东气象,2007,29(S):51-54.
[23]邱明宇,吴慧,王尚荣.ENSO事件对热带低纬大气振荡的调频作用[J].气象研究与应用,2013,34(2):8-11.
[24]林开平,李凌.“94.12”广西大范围暴雨过程的物理量特征分析[J].广西气象,1998,19(2):11-13.
[25]黄治逢.一次广西大范围暴雨过程分析[J].广西气象,2005,26(4):68-69.