东北地区经济增长与金融发展的非对称关系及其结构性变迁
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摘要
本文基于二元Var模型,采用全样本格兰杰因果检验对东北地区经济增长与金融发展的长期关系进行了实证研究,并进一步采用滚动窗口格兰杰因果检验分析了这种长期关系的结构性变迁。研究结果表明,从长期来看,东北地区的经济增长与金融发展之间存在着非对称关系,即金融发展促进了经济增长,但是经济增长未能带动金融发展。更进一步,东北地区金融发展对经济增长的影响经历了较为明显的结构性变迁。这种结构性变迁表明随着市场化改革的深入和"东北振兴战略"政策效应的显现,金融供给政策的推动效应逐渐放大,金融需求机制不断发挥作用。因此,要进一步提高东北地区金融供给政策对经济增长的推动作用,推进金融资源配置方式的市场化改革,打破原有过度"行政化"的金融发展模式。
This paper constructs a bivariate Var system,and makes an empirical research to study the long relationship between financial development and economic growth in northeast area of China by using bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test.Furthermore,bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test is used to study the structural change of former long relationship. The result suggests that there is a asymmetric relationship between financial development and economic growth in northeast area of China,that is,the financial development has a significant influence on economic growth,but economic growth fails to impact on financial development,it shows that there exists a serious financial repression in northeast area of China. This kind of asymmetric relationship experiences three-stages structural change in history. Therefore,financial supply policy should be implement increasingly to support economic growth in northeast area of China,and the key point is the marketization reform of the financial resource allocation mechanism.
This paper constructs a bivariate Var system,and makes an empirical research to study the long relationship between financial development and economic growth in northeast area of China by using bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test.Furthermore,bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test is used to study the structural change of former long relationship. The result suggests that there is a asymmetric relationship between financial development and economic growth in northeast area of China,that is,the financial development has a significant influence on economic growth,but economic growth fails to impact on financial development,it shows that there exists a serious financial repression in northeast area of China. This kind of asymmetric relationship experiences three-stages structural change in history. Therefore,financial supply policy should be implement increasingly to support economic growth in northeast area of China,and the key point is the marketization reform of the financial resource allocation mechanism.
引文
[1]刘力臻,王庆龙.金融支持东北地区产业转型升级方式研究[J].社会科学战线,2017,(2):58~63.
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[11] Levine R,Renelt D. A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-country Growth Regressions[J]. The American Economic Review,1992,(9):942~963.
[12] King R G,Levine R. Finance,Entrepreneurship and Growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32(3):513~542.
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[14] Rioja F,Valev N. Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development[J]. Economic Inquiry,2004,42(1):127~140.
[15] Law S H,Singh N. Does Too Much Finance Harm Economic Growth?[J]. Journal of Banking&Finance,2014,41(1):36~44.
[16] Levine R. More on Finance and Growth:More Finance,More Growth?[J]. Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis,2003,85(4):31~46.
[17]黄智淋,董志勇.我国金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系研究——来自动态面板数据门限模型的经验证据[J].金融研究,2013,(7):74~86.
[18]杨友才.金融发展与经济增长——基于我国金融发展门槛变量的分析[J].金融研究,2014,(2):59~71.
[19] Shukur G,Mantalos P. Size and Power of the RESET Test as Applied to Systems of Equations:A Bootstrap Approach[R].Working paper, Department of Statistics, University of Lund,Sweden,1997a.
[20] Balcilar M,Ozdemir Z A. The Export-output Growth Nexus in Japan:A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach[J]. Empirical Economics,2013,44:639~660.
[2] Mckinnon. Money and Capital in Economic Development[M].Washington:Brookings institution,1973:56~82.
[3] Patrick H T. Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1966,14:174~189.
[4]易纲.金融不是虚拟经济[J].经济社会体制比较,2002,(1):33~39.
[5] Lucas R E. On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22(1):3~42.
[6] Goldsmith R W. Financial Structure and Development[M].New heaven:Yale University Press,1969:370~392.
[7] Shaw E S. Financial Deepening in Economic Development[M].Oxford University Press,1973:23~56.
[8] Hansson P,Jonung L. Finance and Economic Growth:The Case of Sweden 1834~1991[J]. Research in Economics,1997,51(3):275~301.
[9] Guiso L,Sapienza P,Zingales L. The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2000.
[10] Deidda L, Fattouh B. Non-linearity Between Finance and Growth[J]. Economics Letters,2002,74(3):339~345.
[11] Levine R,Renelt D. A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-country Growth Regressions[J]. The American Economic Review,1992,(9):942~963.
[12] King R G,Levine R. Finance,Entrepreneurship and Growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32(3):513~542.
[13] King R G,Levine R. Finance and Growth:Schumpeter Might Be Right[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1993,(8):717~737.
[14] Rioja F,Valev N. Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development[J]. Economic Inquiry,2004,42(1):127~140.
[15] Law S H,Singh N. Does Too Much Finance Harm Economic Growth?[J]. Journal of Banking&Finance,2014,41(1):36~44.
[16] Levine R. More on Finance and Growth:More Finance,More Growth?[J]. Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis,2003,85(4):31~46.
[17]黄智淋,董志勇.我国金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系研究——来自动态面板数据门限模型的经验证据[J].金融研究,2013,(7):74~86.
[18]杨友才.金融发展与经济增长——基于我国金融发展门槛变量的分析[J].金融研究,2014,(2):59~71.
[19] Shukur G,Mantalos P. Size and Power of the RESET Test as Applied to Systems of Equations:A Bootstrap Approach[R].Working paper, Department of Statistics, University of Lund,Sweden,1997a.
[20] Balcilar M,Ozdemir Z A. The Export-output Growth Nexus in Japan:A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach[J]. Empirical Economics,2013,44:639~660.