一种与作业效率相关的人工防雹物理检验方法的探究
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摘要
运用新一代天气雷达基数据、NECP逐6 h再分析资料,基于数学算法分析了2011年5月24日新疆阿克苏地区一次防雹作业过程的物理参数动态变化。使用编程软件解析新一代天气雷达基数据,用递推、排序、深度优先搜索等算法计算冰雹云"体积",模拟冰雹云"形态",发现体积为极大值时,冰雹云呈上宽下窄型。建立数学方程与数学拟合多项式,一次方程斜率可近似反映冰雹云生长速率、衰减速率和单位时间内地面作业速率,拐点可作为区分冰雹云生长过程与衰减过程的临界点,结果表明:衰减与生长速率、衰减与作业速率比值越大,防雹作业效果越显著。根据不同高度层的斜率值可推断:仰角越大,斜率值越大,即随着碘化银增量的不断增加,冰雹云最先从顶部塌陷,且塌陷的速率最快。上述数理模型对识别早期雹云、何时开展人影作业、选取作业方位角以及合理使用作业剂量提供重要的参考依据。
According to a new generation of weather radar data and NECP-by-six hour reanalysis data, the dynamic analysis of the physical parameters of an anti-hail operation process in Akesu area of Xinjiang on May 24, 2011 was analyzed based on the mathematical algorithm. We use the programming software to analyze the new generation of weather radar data, and use the recursive, sorting, depth-irst search algorithm to calculate the "volume" of hail cloud, to simulate the "shape" of hail cloud. We found that when the volume was at its maximum, the hail cloud was on wide below narrow type. Establishing mathematical equations and mathematical fitting polynomial, the slope of the primary equation can approximately reflect the hail cloud growth rate, the attenuation rate and the ground operating rate per unit time, inflection points can be used as the critical point to distinguish the hail cloud growth process and the attenuation process. The results show that the greater the ratio of attenuation and growth rate, the greater the ratio of attenuation and operating rate, the more obvious the effect of hail suppression is. According to the slope value of different height, it can be inferred that the larger the elevation angle, the greater the slope value, that is, with the increasing number of silver iodide increment, the hail cloud first collapse from the top, with the fastest collapse rate. The above mathematical model provides an important reference for identifying early hail clouds, when to carry out weather modification operation, selecting the azimuth angle of the operation and using the operation dose reasonably.
According to a new generation of weather radar data and NECP-by-six hour reanalysis data, the dynamic analysis of the physical parameters of an anti-hail operation process in Akesu area of Xinjiang on May 24, 2011 was analyzed based on the mathematical algorithm. We use the programming software to analyze the new generation of weather radar data, and use the recursive, sorting, depth-irst search algorithm to calculate the "volume" of hail cloud, to simulate the "shape" of hail cloud. We found that when the volume was at its maximum, the hail cloud was on wide below narrow type. Establishing mathematical equations and mathematical fitting polynomial, the slope of the primary equation can approximately reflect the hail cloud growth rate, the attenuation rate and the ground operating rate per unit time, inflection points can be used as the critical point to distinguish the hail cloud growth process and the attenuation process. The results show that the greater the ratio of attenuation and growth rate, the greater the ratio of attenuation and operating rate, the more obvious the effect of hail suppression is. According to the slope value of different height, it can be inferred that the larger the elevation angle, the greater the slope value, that is, with the increasing number of silver iodide increment, the hail cloud first collapse from the top, with the fastest collapse rate. The above mathematical model provides an important reference for identifying early hail clouds, when to carry out weather modification operation, selecting the azimuth angle of the operation and using the operation dose reasonably.
引文
[1]刘德祥,白虎志,董安祥.中国西北地区冰雹的气候特征及异常研究[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):795-803
[2]热苏力·阿不拉,牛生杰,王红岩.新疆冰雹时空分布特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(2):158-163.
[3]张俊兰,张莉.新疆阿克苏地区50 a来强冰雹天气的气候特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):236-241.
[4]肖辉,吴玉霞,胡朝霞,等.旬邑地区冰雹云的早期识别及数值模拟[J].高原气象,2002,21(2):159-166.
[5]樊鹏,肖辉.雷达识别渭北地区冰雹云技术研究[J].气象,2005,31(7):16-19.
[6]崔雅琴,肖辉,王振会,等.三维对流云催化数值模式人工冰晶参数化方案的改进与个例模拟试验[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):798-810.
[7]郭学良.三维强对流云的冰雹形成机制及降雹过程的冰雹分档数值模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所,1997:44-49.
[8]周非非,肖辉,黄美元,等.人工抑制上升气流对冰雹云降水影响的数值试验研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2005,28(2):10-19.
[9]刘治国,陶健红,王学良,等.一次高炮防雹效果的CINRAD/CC产品分析[J].干旱气象,2006,24(3):23-30.
[10]王雨曾,刘新元,赵宗然,等.人工防雹效果差异分析[J].气象,1996,22(12):31-34.
[11]王婉,姚展予.2006年北京市人工增雨作业效果统计分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(1):195-202.
[12]王雨曾,郁青.多物理参量检验防雹效果的研究[J].气象,1995,21(10):3-9.
[13]高子毅,张建新,廖飞佳,等.新疆天山山区人工增雨试验效果评价[J].高原气象,2005,24(5):734-740.
[14]李桂华,金少华.雹云识别的物元可拓模型在低纬高原的构造及其效果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):280-284.
[15]李祚泳,邓新民,张辉军.基于神经网络B-P算法的雹云识别模型及其效果检验[J].高原气象,1994,13(1):44-49.
[16]陈洪武,马禹,王旭,等.新疆冰雹天气的气候特征分析[J].气象,2002,29(11):25-28.
[17]王旭,马禹.新疆冰雹天气过程的基本特征[J].气象,2002,25(1):10-14.
[18]马禹,王旭,赵兵科,等.新疆冰雹的时空统计特征[J].新疆气象,2002,25(1):4-5.
[19]王秋香,任宜勇.51a新疆雹灾损失的时空分布特征[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(1):65-69.
[20]李丽华,陈洪武,毛炜峄,等.基于GIS的阿克苏地区冰雹灾害风险区划及评价[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(2):221-229.
[21]李斌,郑博华,史莲梅,等.新疆阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效率研究[J].新疆农业科学,2016,53(5):942-948.
[22]李斌,郑博华,史莲梅,等.利用区域回归分析法对阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效果再分析[J].新疆农业科学,2017,54(9):1756-1764.
[23]郭恩铭,宋达人,刘万军,等.冰雹云图集[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:134-136.
[24]张磊,张继东,热苏力·阿不拉.南疆阿克苏冰雹天气的判识指标研究[J].干旱气象,2014,32(4):629-635.
[25]徐秀玲.通过多种途径探讨西藏人工防雹效果检验方法[J].西藏科技,2007(1):54-57.
[2]热苏力·阿不拉,牛生杰,王红岩.新疆冰雹时空分布特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(2):158-163.
[3]张俊兰,张莉.新疆阿克苏地区50 a来强冰雹天气的气候特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):236-241.
[4]肖辉,吴玉霞,胡朝霞,等.旬邑地区冰雹云的早期识别及数值模拟[J].高原气象,2002,21(2):159-166.
[5]樊鹏,肖辉.雷达识别渭北地区冰雹云技术研究[J].气象,2005,31(7):16-19.
[6]崔雅琴,肖辉,王振会,等.三维对流云催化数值模式人工冰晶参数化方案的改进与个例模拟试验[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):798-810.
[7]郭学良.三维强对流云的冰雹形成机制及降雹过程的冰雹分档数值模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所,1997:44-49.
[8]周非非,肖辉,黄美元,等.人工抑制上升气流对冰雹云降水影响的数值试验研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2005,28(2):10-19.
[9]刘治国,陶健红,王学良,等.一次高炮防雹效果的CINRAD/CC产品分析[J].干旱气象,2006,24(3):23-30.
[10]王雨曾,刘新元,赵宗然,等.人工防雹效果差异分析[J].气象,1996,22(12):31-34.
[11]王婉,姚展予.2006年北京市人工增雨作业效果统计分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(1):195-202.
[12]王雨曾,郁青.多物理参量检验防雹效果的研究[J].气象,1995,21(10):3-9.
[13]高子毅,张建新,廖飞佳,等.新疆天山山区人工增雨试验效果评价[J].高原气象,2005,24(5):734-740.
[14]李桂华,金少华.雹云识别的物元可拓模型在低纬高原的构造及其效果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):280-284.
[15]李祚泳,邓新民,张辉军.基于神经网络B-P算法的雹云识别模型及其效果检验[J].高原气象,1994,13(1):44-49.
[16]陈洪武,马禹,王旭,等.新疆冰雹天气的气候特征分析[J].气象,2002,29(11):25-28.
[17]王旭,马禹.新疆冰雹天气过程的基本特征[J].气象,2002,25(1):10-14.
[18]马禹,王旭,赵兵科,等.新疆冰雹的时空统计特征[J].新疆气象,2002,25(1):4-5.
[19]王秋香,任宜勇.51a新疆雹灾损失的时空分布特征[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(1):65-69.
[20]李丽华,陈洪武,毛炜峄,等.基于GIS的阿克苏地区冰雹灾害风险区划及评价[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(2):221-229.
[21]李斌,郑博华,史莲梅,等.新疆阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效率研究[J].新疆农业科学,2016,53(5):942-948.
[22]李斌,郑博华,史莲梅,等.利用区域回归分析法对阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效果再分析[J].新疆农业科学,2017,54(9):1756-1764.
[23]郭恩铭,宋达人,刘万军,等.冰雹云图集[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:134-136.
[24]张磊,张继东,热苏力·阿不拉.南疆阿克苏冰雹天气的判识指标研究[J].干旱气象,2014,32(4):629-635.
[25]徐秀玲.通过多种途径探讨西藏人工防雹效果检验方法[J].西藏科技,2007(1):54-57.